Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[TSSN+]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The algorithm knows people like sensational weather maps.

People complain the forecast is never right, yet they go to the worst people forecasting haha 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

People complain the forecast is never right, yet they go to the worst people forecasting haha 

Because the algorithms aren't programmed (or programming themselves) to show people accurate information.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Because the algorithms aren't programmed (or programming themselves) to show people accurate information.  

If you follow the page long enough you’d know they aren’t any good. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

If you follow the page long enough you’d know they aren’t any good. 

This is true but most people as far as I can tell just gobble up whatever garbage social media algos feed them....that's why I just stay off social media for the most part. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

This is true but most people as far as I can tell just gobble up whatever garbage social media algos feed them....that's why I just stay off social media for the most part. 

Sadly people are pretty stupid. Anyone believing the apple weather app snow output should be arrested. 

[winter_warlock]

57 minutes ago, Scraff said:

 

Good morning everyone! Based on my expertise throughout the years, and the knowledge I have gained by spending hours in this madhouse of a forum, I am 100% positive of one thing: It’s going to snow….somewhere. 

They don't call you the Amazing Scraff. For nothing! 

[baltosquid]

Warning, amateur analysis ahead…

Looking at the h5, the euro isn’t that far… but the tendency for the NS to not play nice makes it a difficult task to fix the presentation. See hr66:

There are two waves - the tighter vort in the Dakotas and the broader energy centered in Illinois. Roll this forward to just about game time:

Follow the 540 line. The leading wave is ceding to the trailing vort but it is still too much of an independent force. It blunts the heights immediately in front of the wave trying to tilt. Imagine if that wave just wrapped in a little faster. Straighten out the 540 line so it doesn’t have that southward kink. Now things have more room to amplify. Earlier negative tilt. Better chance of capture and a boom - probably not far inland, but close enough to maximize the event in a realistic way.

This in a vacuum is not a huge thing to hope for… a little weaker with the front wave, or a little slower so the trailer can wrap it up further west, or maybe the confluence lightens up further upstream and allows things to still strengthen even with some messy spacing. But the short lead time with lacking ensemble support and the apparent seasonal trend for messy, crowded NS interactions makes it tougher to believe in it getting done.

 

all done… feel free to point out my mistakes, they are probably numerous

[bncho]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Warning, amateur analysis ahead…

Looking at the h5, the euro isn’t that far… but the tendency for the NS to not play nice makes it a difficult task to fix the presentation. See hr66:

There are two waves - the tighter vort in the Dakotas and the broader energy centered in Illinois. Roll this forward to just about game time:

Follow the 540 line. The leading wave is ceding to the trailing vort but it is still too much of an independent force. It blunts the heights immediately in front of the wave trying to tilt. Imagine if that wave just wrapped in a little faster. Straighten out the 540 line so it doesn’t have that southward kink. Now things have more room to amplify. Earlier negative tilt. Better chance of capture and a boom - probably not far inland, but close enough to maximize the event in a realistic way.

This in a vacuum is not a huge thing to hope for… a little weaker with the front wave, or a little slower so the trailer can wrap it up further west, or maybe the confluence lightens up further upstream and allows things to still strengthen even with some messy spacing. But the short lead time with lacking ensemble support and the apparent seasonal trend for messy, crowded NS interactions makes it tougher to believe in it getting done.

 

all done… feel free to point out my mistakes, they are probably numerous

I was thinking that if we had this setup in a Nino everything would be so much simpler to figure out, plus they'd probably trend the right way

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

They don't call you the Amazing Scraff. For nothing! 

And for my next trick, I’ll chug a beer and make it disappear. 

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!

 I'd ignore any weather prognosis on social media, chances are its run by a 60 y o man who has never left his mom's basement his entire life

[high risk]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.

Huge upgrade to the “regular” GFS coming later this year. 

[bncho]

Just now, high risk said:

Huge upgrade to the “regular” GFS coming later this year. 

This is due to the change of cores, no?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

Huge upgrade to the “regular” GFS coming later this year. 

Great news

[Ralph Wiggum]

How does the latest SPIRE look?

[Grothar of Herndon]

24 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!

JI posted the 6z GFS to his FB followers.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

Huge upgrade to the “regular” GFS coming later this year. 

It can’t get much worse so thank goodness. Hopefully will make tracking next year little less of a headache. 

[anotherman]

JI posted the 6z GFS to his FB followers.

But he said how unreliable it is.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How does the latest SPIRE look?

[baltosquid]

Ugh, really can’t help but think we’re so close looking more at the euro… higher heights behind to support a stronger trailing wave, which is centered further W and stronger, and the heights ahead did not get worse and really in the large scale maybe got a bit better, but for our neighborhood the leading wave blunts them.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

But he said how unreliable it is.

I love his page. He's like "here's the gfs run, it's garbage and not correct" leaving the soccer moms scratching their heads and unsure if they should share it.

[baltosquid]

Like this is objectively a pretty good trend on h5, at least I think so. But 06z specifically just struggles to tilt because of unhelpful interactions between the two waves. Keeps it positive even though the placement and strength is better. In the good ending, this is a transitional run and we keep shifting W with the main energy and that blunting of the heights lessens. In the bad ending, well, most models show that already.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Like this is objectively a pretty good trend on h5, at least I think so. But 06z specifically just struggles to tilt because of unhelpful interactions between the two waves. Keeps it positive even though the placement and strength is better. In the good ending, this is a transitional run and we keep shifting W with the main energy and that blunting of the heights lessens. In the bad ending, well, most models show that already.

Might alos be a +PNA depth issue? Notice how it spikes less than 0z and 18z?

[TSSN+]

Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. 

[baltosquid]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

Might alos be a +PNA depth issue? Notice how it spikes less than 0z and 18z?

Yeah potentially. Heights are higher behind at their peak (compared to 00z) but also not as steep in general since the pacific trough jumped north a bit. Go back to the prior PNA look and maybe it results in a steeper ridge behind the wave?

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Yeah potentially. Heights are higher behind at their peak but also not as steep since the pacific trough jumped north a bit. Go back to the prior PNA look and maybe it results in a steeper ridge behind the wave?

Your 6z image trend above really does show things well, that's not a bad look. Would want h5 further south at the base if we could choose, and it is a bit north from prior runs. Overall though, with that evol I would have expected a big time storm further NE. 

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Reasons why general public don’t trust forecasting. 

I flinched when I saw "GFS MODEL"

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I flinched when I saw "GFS MODEL"

Gets viewership 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I flinched when I saw "GFS MODEL"

how do they know its one last shot.  I love these blanket statements when nothing is set in stone as to what will happen until usually the day after the event. 

[LordBaltimore]

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said:

GFS isn't anywhere near the best model but the pessimism here is way overblown. It's still better than the GEM, ICON, and you can't just throw out what it says

At least it's been the most consistent last couple days