“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MuddyWx]

TBlizz will meh this up until he measures 2ft

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nothing I want more than for that to tug N and stall off ACK lol. Stall won’t happen though but love to have the tug.

Yea, it's progressive, but a tug NW pretty much equates to a stall for all intents and purposes.

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just going on the strength of the SLP will want to get this west a bit.

The strengths may be what helps pull it west if it really wraps up, but of course, then it’s LBSW. Not really our storm, but it could end up being fun for us and epic to our south

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I don't think we are done trending on that...I'm delaying my first map until late night bc I don't have the balls to go with my gut yet.

Well....if it has to snow let's do a repeat of this:    

 

Sorry, not sorry to those in Western CT and MA.

[Massplow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I don't think we are done trending on that...I'm delaying my first map until late night bc I don't have the balls to go with my gut yet.

What time is late i gotta rest up 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Well....if it has to snow let's do a repeat of this:    

 

Sorry, not sorry to those in Western CT and MA.

So dirty. I hope you rain now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Massplow said:

What time is late i gotta rest up 

Depends how quickly I can vanquish the wife and kids for the night  I may try to get a jump on the H5 graphics today to save time.

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can see the little fuji here... slightly later phase with more NS involvement leads to later occlusion

Looks like a deformation band from Northwest Massachusetts over towards the pope

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM shunted east a little at the last second. Still a good hit for eastern folks but slightly less than 06z

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Well....if it has to snow let's do a repeat of this:    

 

Sorry, not sorry to those in Western CT and MA.

You don't say that!!

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He was lagging behind on panels apparently ha ha.

Too much "toggling" 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can see the little fuji here... slightly later phase with more NS involvement leads to later occlusion

I wrote a tl;dr on page 68 that discusses some of those trough axis idiosyncrasies we've been observing.  I spent ... more time than I responsibly should have ... going over those fundamentals of Met wrt the various guidance sources, and spoke about them in that missive. 

Paraphrase,  there's still NW correction room in this whole thing.

Longer recap:  the S/W ridging that rolls out ahead of trough amplificaiton has been either under done by error, or, just gong to be anomalously weak in this case.  I leaned on the latter in that discussion, just because I couldn't find a guidance that has a better more "balanced" looking roll-out ridge.   But that is an important feature when system's are creating their own positive feedback arena - during life cycle of the total wave space.  The end result of which tends to position the axis farther W than the eastern flank of the trough - which is what all guidance has been consummately doing... 

I also discussed that the ridge west has been relatively well anchored near MT longitude, and the trough has been en masse tending to stretch E. That's also a correctable aspect. 

Your ICON above seems to evince the latter concepts... at least, showing how the total wave geometry matters in this. The ridge in the west is, if anything, nudged W by pubes ...but the trough in the east is also simultaneously availing of the total trough space and not as biased on the eastern flank. 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM shunted east a little at the last second. Still a good hit for eastern folks but slightly less than 06z

Hopefully just noise

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM shunted east a little at the last second. Still a good hit for eastern folks but slightly less than 06z

Ugh....didn't want any regression pushes this quickly...at least it's still in lala range.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ugh....didn't want any regression pushes this quickly...at least it's still in lala range.

Yeah mesos are still marginal right now for utility. 

 

ICON gives a 20-burger for SE MA/Cape

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What time is late i gotta rest up 

Good luck with that! I could rarely nap, or go to bed early before an event when I had my residential route

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah mesos are still marginal right now for utility. 

 

ICON gives a 20-burger for SE MA/Cape

2.35" qpf wow 

[SouthCoastMA]

Any ocean enhancement with this one? Figured there's always some with a coastal near the benchmark, especially a deep sub 980mb 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Any ocean enhancement with this one? Figured there's always some with a coastal near the benchmark

Maybe some? Temps aren’t super cold and actually hover near 32 there for a time. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Any ocean enhancement with this one? Figured there's always some with a coastal near the benchmark

Delta-Ts aren't particularly big.....esp this time of the year after the type of winter we've had....water temps are chilly. Might be some as the winds turn more northerly and if we can get 850s down to roughly -10C or so....

[40/70 Benchmark]

ICON is Jan 2022.

[SouthCoastMA]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some? Temps aren’t super cold and actually hover near 32 there for a time. 

Yeah, I was kinda thinking that..no arctic antecedent airmass in place. Could be some damage with wetter snow. 

[Spanks45]

GFS up next, guess we will see if it decides to flinch or double down...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So dirty. I hope you rain now. 

That storm had me grinding enamel off of my teeth.

[SouthCoastMA]

Jan 15 was colder and stalled for a bit, iirc. This could be a Jan 15 lite, or I guess Jan 22 lite. 

I wasn't here at the time, but I think Sandwich had close to 30" in 2015'

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Jan 15 was colder and stalled for a bit, iirc. This could be a Jan 15 lite, or I guess Jan 22 lite. 

I wasn't here at the time, but I think Sandwich had close to 30" in 2015'

This has easy 30" potential for SEMASS .. I'd be ecstatic if I was there, I'm hoping for sloppy seconds out here..

[Damage In Tolland]

Will this be powder inland ?

[J Paul Gordon]

SE Mass and Cape/Islands storm? Haven't been paying it too much attention.

[Go Kart Mozart]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

balls to go with my gut

The mixed metaphor award!  I love it!

[ineedsnow]