Hurricane Melissa

[BretWx]

One of the most impressive IRs I've ever seen in my life. She keeps cranking. 

[NJwx85]

The Northern turn has begun but it’s more of NW turn than true North. At this point it might get close to 79W before it crosses 17N.

[WEATHER53]

Two questions please

How many 5s have there been and what were last 5 years we had as many

 

when was last time we had a 5 after 10/25

[ATDoel]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Two questions please

How many 5s have there been and what were last 5 years we had as many

 

when was last time we had a 5 after 10/25

Not sure how many 5s but Melissa is the strongest storm in our basin in history this late in the season

[beanskip]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Northern turn has begun but it’s more of NW turn than true North. At this point it might get close to 79W before it crosses 17N.

Seems like it's been to the left of model guidance all day. Hard to tell from satellite, but it appears to have reached 78.4 W which is farther west than the HAFS A/B ever get the storm on their 12z runs. 

[GoAPPS]

Look at the size of the stadium effect on shortwave IR.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Seems like it's been to the left of model guidance all day. Hard to tell from satellite, but it appears to have reached 78.4 W which is farther west than the HAFS A/B ever get the storm on their 12z runs. 

I think MN Transplant mentioned this, but this has me worried for western Jamaica and resorts as well as Montego Bay. That place has a lot of people. 

[WolfStock1]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think MN Transplant mentioned this, but this has me worried for western Jamaica and resorts as well as Montego Bay. That place has a lot of people. 

 

There and Savanna-la-Mer, on the SW portion - will get the worst of the wind and storm surge.    Montego Bay at least will be somewhat protected by the mountains; though will certainly get mudslides and such.

[Radtechwxman]

Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn

[Jefflaw77]

This storm went from a central/eastern flank event to a western Jamaica threat.  While there will still be crazy rain which will be horrific for Kingston and the mountains - negril and Montego Bay are in bad spots… 

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

Seriously really starting to wonder if this is going to clip far western Jamaica. It's going to need to make a hard right turn

It’s modeled to make the hard turn to the NE

[RaleighNC]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think MN Transplant mentioned this, but this has me worried for western Jamaica and resorts as well as Montego Bay. That place has a lot of people. 

But those resorts are big concrete buildings. If the worst of the wind and surge were to slam into Kingston.... 

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, hazwoper said:

It’s modeled to make the hard turn to the NE

It's really been hugging that left edge of nhc track though. Would hate to be forecasting this or chasing this. 

[NoCORH4L]

Just now, RaleighNC said:

But those resorts are big concrete buildings. If the worst of the wind and surge were to slam into Kingston.... 

Then the All Damage ATT people would be saying WWLT

[NoCORH4L]

Could it miss the island entirely?

[RaleighNC]

2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

In a mountainous island like Jamaica it absolutely is true.  Obviously winds will be devastating at the center, but the biggest impact for the island will be the sheer amount of rainfall from this event that will be exacerbated by topo with mass amounts of fresh water having nowhere to drain during the height of the storm due to surge.  

This will be Andrew + Katrina + Helene among some of the poorest people in the hemisphere. 

[RaleighNC]

2 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Then the All Damage ATT people would be saying WWLT

? 

[BooneWX]

I was optimistic the warming in the sw eyewall might be a good sign but it seems to be cooling again with new hot towers firing in that region. This thing is an absolute machine. 

[dan11295]

Melissa is expected to turn due North then Northeast very shortly. would take a large very short term modeling error to miss the island sadly.

[RaleighNC]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

What will help some is that the mountains have trees, which will help prevent mudslides. If it was a place like Haiti where the mountains have been denuded of trees, there would be massive mudslides, with little or no warning, causing more deaths, and devastation. 

Helene showed the trees just become battering rams when the mountainside collapses and goes downriver. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

This storm went from a central/eastern flank event to a western Jamaica threat.  While there will still be crazy rain which will be horrific for Kingston and the mountains - negril and Montego Bay are in bad spots… 

 

7 minutes ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

There and Savanna-la-Mer, on the SW portion - will get the worst of the wind and storm surge.    Montego Bay at least will be somewhat protected by the mountains; though will certainly get mudslides and such.

Depending on where the eye goes, N-NW-W winds would be bad for Montego Bay.

[Floydbuster]

Looking worse and worse for western Jamaica and Montego Bay.

[NoCORH4L]

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

Looking worse and worse for western Jamaica and Montego Bay.

Being on the other side of the island is a big blessing though. It's like standing on the other side of a wall when the wind is blowing.

[hazwoper]

10 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Could it miss the island entirely?

No

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Being on the other side of the island is a big blessing though. It's like standing on the other side of a wall when the wind is blowing.

Depends on where the center tracks. 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing about the western shifts in track that might make this even more unlucky is we are getting close to a point where it could directly hit every potential landmass: Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda. Bermuda now squarely in play

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, WolfStock1 said:

 

Not what I'm seeing (e.g. we're at a peak right now, and we've had five Cat 5's in the last two years).   Spun off a separate thread though so as to not derail this one.

 

 

Yes, please do. Let's keep this thread focused on Hurricane Melissa.

[Roger Smith]

Savanna-la-Mar was apparently destroyed by a major hurricane in 1780 (a 20 foot tidal surge), the worst season on record especially for the Caribbean. There were thousands killed in western Jamaica and at sea. And that was also a year on the downswing of a solar cycle (peak was 1778). Speaking of that, I would include Andrew (1992) because the 1989 peak had a secondary peak in 1991, and also Agnes (1972) fits because of a large secondary peak in 1972. One could also mention the 1938 New England Long Island express (solar cycle peaked 1937). 

[HKY_WX]

12z EC/AI/Google Deep mind are pretty deadset on SW Jamaica (Would put the mid-point near White House, Jamaica). I don't see much variance among them today. Seems to be the spot.

[NJwx85]

The mean motion is more Westerly again. I think we’re seeing an example of an intense hurricane amplifying the ridging to its North. This of course is being counteracted by the trough building into the Southeast US and making for quite the battle. I fully expect the eventual hard turn but Melissa continues to track to the West of most guidance and the official track. Even these small shifts can have major implications regarding landfall location.