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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. GEFS took positive steps with the PNA. That’s one key teleconnection that keeps looking better by the day despite the insanity for every other run and pattern signal.
  2. If there’s a bright side to a warm winter, you wouldn’t be able to draw up a worse year for wall to wall cold with the crunch on the energy market right now.
  3. It’s generally never a good sign when I’m on about a 10 day streak of seeing a ton of Mets start their tweets with “delayed but not denied.” but as others have said, generally the teleconnections don’t look bad and perhaps that’s the only thing we should be looking at anyways. The gfs is drunk with the new upgrade and everything else seems to have too many wild swings to take seriously.
  4. Also one of you fellas needs to set up a livestream or live reports for one of the better flow setups . I lived vicariously through the Buffalo snow king two weeks ago and his reports were incredible. If you missed it, look him up on Twitter or crawl that thread in the upstate NY forum.
  5. Yep I’ve tried to back off my panic from yesterday. I’m just a sucker for a cold December but it does look like we get the PNA close to neutral and borderline positive by around the 13th. We all know that deep down, NAO or not, that’s truly the one piece that matters the most.
  6. Never! The only guaranteed cold comes April - Memorial Day edit: sorry everyone. Just a salty winter weenie.
  7. What a disgusting flip in the models. Went from wall to wall cold and a rare setup to mowing the grass and golfing the rest of December.
  8. This pattern is about to be unreal for you. The lakes are still warm and those fronts are going to bring a polar express with it. Can’t wait to see how much NWF you can rack up by New Years.
  9. I haven’t been this excited by a look on the ensembles in years. We know how it goes…nothing is written until the ink dries but nonetheless, at least things seem to be getting interesting.
  10. That -PNA is going to be the fly in the ointment. We should’ve expected it wouldn’t stay positive. I just hope it flips back before long. The NAO going - is certainly a nice step but a -NAO and a -PNA spells nothing more than transient cool days I’m afraid.
  11. Don’t worry! This pattern will re-emerge in April.
  12. Next week gets more and more interesting each set of model runs
  13. Looks like McCllellanville might be the landfall point soon.
  14. Ian appears that he may jog into the coast, south of guidance. That could have a big impact downstream - especially for those that were previously on the cuff.
  15. If this thing comes in at Pawleys, it’ll have implications downstream. 20 mile wiggle south as the crow flies.
  16. My eyes may be deceiving me but it appears to have commenced a west of north movement now… if so, Garden City Beach?
  17. Tomorrow is going to be a gnarly day across the entire state of NC except maybe extreme SW sections. I think that left side is going to be nastier than we realize as well with the transition to more of a Nor’easter style system.
  18. Speak for yourself! We’re under our 4th warning of the evening in Burke.
  19. Every winter this thread reminds me how much I miss living in the higher elevations. Congrats to everyone with snow on the ground this morning! Not gonna lie though - I hit 16 this morning and warmer days fishing and hiking are calling my name now.
  20. Out of curiosity - where does everyone stand on the season for snowfall totals at the moment?
  21. Could be another good score for the mountains and down east if the gfs evolution is true. For the western piedmont and foothills, I wouldn’t hold our breath. I’ve seen that surface output for enough years to know it’s cloudy day/sprinkles scenario.
  22. A tale older than time for those of us just east of escarpment lol
  23. 30.9 with light rain. Everything elevated is coated! Sidewalks are also slick. Never underestimate CAD….
  24. For what it’s worth, can anyone recall snow on the beach 3 weekends in a row? It’d be wild if we trend that way.
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