BooneWX

We lost a lot of good commentary to that board

Same to you @strongwxnc! Everyone enjoy the turkey and the first taste of winter.

Snow or not, winter is coming .

The only fly in the ointment this morning is the MJO. It still gets to 8, but not until we have an obnoxious loop through 7 and it heads for the COD at the timeframe I was hoping it would steer into 1.

I stand by my statements that the GFS should get zero consideration in anything going forward. It’s not useful even from a 500 mb level in the medium range anymore. This summer was an all-time abysmal performance with the tropics and chasing extreme warmth that only happened once. With that being said, it’s a 2 in a room of 4s. I’m not bragging a bit on the other models. Even the AIFS which sniffed out the cold Dec start has endured a windshield wiper effect.

Time will tell. At some point our crew gets to eat too. I still have a good feeling about next month. If we repeat the upcoming pattern later in winter, I won’t be as bullish for CAD regions because it would favor too much suppression.

Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour.

Frigid euro ens. Just wall to wall cold.

It’s the Icon but it damn near delivers next week

Morning update: Colder. Where? Every single ensemble.

What a torch lol. Canadian with its first ice doomsday clown map of the season. .

Will always does great work. He’s one of the few I’ll listen to for LR updates. .

The SER centered over the western gulf coast and that pool of cold air in eastern Canada is the ticket. That’s how you get some mischief east of the apps. This look screams CAD opportunities. .

Two days in a row of positive baby steps with the long range guidance. What makes me more optimistic is how many times CAD has shown up in some of these runs. Even in a mediocre pattern, an active gulf and a well timed CAD can do the trick. I don’t think a blow torch is a sure fire bet anymore. It seems like we’re correcting back to volatility and some AN temps but possibly trending more towards Avg with stout below avg bouts.

Judging by the flip flopping some things never change with the models. Everyone take a breath, it’s not even Thanksgiving. We’re going to be fine. Dec looks volatile and then we have Jammin’ January and Fab Feb.

For what it’s worth, the Euro AI has performed really well of late, including sniffing out the brief Thanksgiving cold shot followed by warmth, and it has below average temps up and down the EC by around the 5th. Goes to show it’s not all bad on the models but I still think sustained cold isn’t coming until we work into the mid month (maybe the 10th if we’re fortunate) timeframe. The teleconnections just aren’t there but phase 8 should be coming in to play by that juncture.

Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range.

Agree on all points. I’ve got a good feeling about this winter. I think we muster at least one good storm that gets us to climo. The models NEVER showed a cold SE the first week/week and a half of Dec. Idk why there are so many conversations online about can kicking. A few OP runs tried to anchor the cold prematurely and now people are over worried about what the GFS and Euro ops show beyond 300 hrs. It’s just noise. Phase 7 is going to do phase 7 things. The ridge will flex a bit and all of this is going to be a step down process like it always is. We went through this same song and dance last December and it ended up being the coldest winter in a while, too much so, in fact. It was suppression city after Christmas. I think after we see a few cutters, my gut says it’s game on beyond Dec 15th just based on where the MJO is likely headed. And that’s fine. I’m not a huge fan of pissing phase 8 and potentially phase 1 down the pot from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s going to take a really high amplitude pass through those phases to deliver in what’s essentially late fall. I like what I’m seeing line up. I think this pattern offers some future potential for something we haven’t seen a lot through the years: anchored highs in favorable locations and storms riding the boundary to the south.

Good stuff everyone. I always learn something from a visit to this region of the forum.

The first week of December was never on the table

.

I don’t want to get over my skis here, but I think we should be very excited about the look of the long range. I’m wary of the Pacific cooperating as well, but this PV weakening is something we haven’t seen in a while. So much so, I think that being outside of prime climo might be the true sweet spot. The AI models were first to sniff things out and now we’re seeing the other guidance catch up to the idea of the cold being centered in the plains — eastward instead of being so closely anchored to the Rockies. Time will tell how much bleeds east of the Apps but the 8/1 crawl on the MJO coupled with some blocking should help quite a bit. I still imagine this being a step down process and don’t buy the hype of it being an immediate meat locker right after Thanksgiving. My gut says we have to watch a few cutters occur Thanksgiving - Dec 5th ish and somewhere after that first week, a fantasy storm might work into the medium range. If this look were to show up post-Christmas I’d be a lot less bullish for most in this forum because it would scream cold and dry with ample suppression. It’s a fine balance but this sort of pattern is how you nail a big dog before we get into the heart of winter.

31.5….the lake heat is wearing off. Nice to slow the grass down, I’m tired of mowing.

Already down to 37 this evening