BooneWX

That’s putting it mildly too! Very anxious this evening.

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Please no

Numerous mesovorticies dancing around that eyewall

Per recon, it’s flirting with cat 4. It’s defying all of the odds. Never bet against a Gulf cane.

While I know it’s not a Helene, our area hasn’t really been tested since that storm. I’m nervous about what this could knock loose - both land and trees that may still be hanging by a thread.

Ticking east every run. Good call.

How many more wobbles east should I allow before I start to get nervous?

It surely doesn’t seem like it. Granted, I think we’re paying for all of the nice weather luck we’ve had the last couple of years.

IMO they’ve never been great at PR. I don’t necessarily blame them - that’s a different set of expertise but nonetheless, I think all offices get a bit too caught up in technicalities and splitting hairs. The greater public doesn’t operate with the mindset of what PWAT anomalies might or might not be, lift, probability of winds getting mixed down to the surface etc etc. Sometimes, you just have to look at the system as a whole imo and ask “does it elevate the risk of injury, death or property damage, and would us issuing these warnings make people take the system more seriously?” The answer is yes.

I’ll be wearing waders for the app game. We’re really lucky it hasn’t been super wet lately. The inland wind threat with this increases every model run.

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared.

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old.

Jimbo!!! I hope you’re doing well.

What’s everyone’s gamble on timing? App kicks off homecoming at 1 pm. Selfishly hoping we get a rain free game for our passing attack lol.

Weirdly, I think everyone is getting smoked. I may be 100% wrong, but with that flow, we’ll be getting not only the southerly fetch from the gulf, but the Atlantic will get tapped into as the storm gains latitude. There’s certainly going to be max’s to the west and east of the piedmont but this is your classic, squeezing every last drop out of the clouds type of setup for the Carolinas. Also one of those situations where the moments of blankness on radar are still producing heavy drizzle/light rain.

App State has a home game on Saturday, so this threat has legs.

After tonight, that should pretty much be the axe to the drought and deficit. It made a 4th quarter comeback but it has been an absolute deluge along and west of I-77.

Crazy given how close we are! I went back and looped the radar. It looks like a lot of it anchored in Caldwell county from 2-6 am

2.5” of rain since midnight

That’s a great question. I did see some Mets are hoping to utilize AI to code a new version that exists outside of NOAA servers.

Drop in! Share your best memories!

I’m sure many of you know this, but we’re down to our last few weeks with the NAM. Whether it was convective feedback issues, crushing your CAD dreams or raising them up, some of the best crashouts on this sub-forum happened at the hands of the NAM. As I write this post, we embark on one final chapter for our dear CAD leader, the NAM. A backdoor cold front is entering the Carolinas, ushering in a classic scenario east of the Apps for one final gift to measure before we lay her to rest. Please offer your condolences, or share a fond memory with the class. When all convection allowing models fall short this winter, we’ll remember her fondly.

Ik it’s the Euro Ai Ens, but this map reminded me that we’re going to miss having the NAM soon.

On the extended pattern: I had someone ask me if it wasn’t a bit early to be putting out fall decorations with it being this hot. My response: “If you’re waiting on fall weather to do fall things, it’ll be time to decorate for Christmas.” Next week is looking a little better at least. Not quite as stifling hot and maybe some rain to help.