BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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GFS is a snowstorm for almost the entirety of the Carolinas on the 15th
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12z starting fine
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06z doesn’t go out far enough on the Euro but geez it looked like it was about to hammer us for the first storm.
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OOOOF. I followed that line and imagined a few shattered TV screens last night when they covered every player except Beck. I’ve been taking so many Ls lately that I’ve started not loading any more money onto my FanDuel account
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I think the thing that is peaking my interest the most are the 500mb maps. Go back and look at almost any major miller a we’ve had in the past. It looks almost identical.
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Yea I agree. The late phase scenario by the gfs is always worrisome to see, but that model also has a very progressive bias. No phase is ever a given but when you drop the energy down to the oil rigs, I like our odds compared to normal. I think the second system has some serious legs. I feel like a close shave is coming for the first….the Euro bought brought a tear to my eye lol. I haven’t seen a good WNC special on a digital snow map in a while.
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Went to bed after Ole Miss and Miami hoping I’d find some magic in here this morning. Man what a night of model runs!
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It’s been a minute since I’ve seen pinks on any clown map around here
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Sir, this is a Wendy’s
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If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm.
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We’re going to eventually get a weenie run for the ages here soon. So much to like from that 12z suite.
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I mean my goodness. .
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Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm.
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Euro is a close miss. I’m fine with that at this range. It has the signal and that’s all we need this far out.
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We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks.
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1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise.
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Icon opening 12z with a foothills special
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This event is very close to being a whopper for I-85 north. It’s a classic look for a major winter storm in the upper southeast. We just need a bit more help with digging and tilt. It would be really nice if our source region for cold wasn’t baking right now.
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I hope the cards are right and the foothills forum has the Krispy Kreme light on all week
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Inside 10 days, that’s a heck of a look at 500mb. You can see the trough dig and take on a neutral tilt in the run. I really wish we weren’t stepping down from a blow torch because this would be money. We’d need more digging and time for it to go negative, which is doable, but likely this will be a close miss. .
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We do need noise though. You definitely can’t take them seriously but if we’re going to manage anything fruitful out of this pattern, we need the models to start baring out that fruit. Good sign of things to come hopefully. I love that we’ve also seen a few modes of winter weather. We have some overrunning outputs and some massive miller a signals.
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Fantasy runs are so back!
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Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch.
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Big takeaway, this pattern, especially if the TPV continues to show up in lower latitudes is flirting with big dog potential. I’m not as concerned about suppression because we are already seeing some west Atlantic ridging and linkage between energy for once. Should slow things down, allow phasing for a change, and watch it ride that gradient.
