BooneWX

Much improved look tho

I know none of you personally but love all of you virtually. This thread has been nothing but a basket case and it wouldn’t be fun any other way. Biggest improvement with SouthernWX s creation is moving the egos and the “stay on topic” boys that used to be on this board there and making this a truly unhinged, unmitigated, anarchist discussion.

Strung out or not, we are working with physics in our area aiding us. A gulf tap and some upgliding as terrain rises can do the trick.

It’ll be ingested for 0z. Interesting runs coming I think. I’ll pronounce it dead or alive after 12z tomorrow. I know I’m smoking that hopium, but man it really would not take a wild shift to get us very firmly in the game. WNC is one of the few locations I’d feel confident about the CAA being on time. Right now, the moisture footprint over the central Carolina’s doesn’t really require that much of a jump to come west. Not with 36 ish hours to go. Wouldn’t be shocked either if it’s less of a shift, and more of an amplified trend with more moisture response..

It’s a shame we can’t get the moisture here for Sunday. NAM has the dew points supportive of accumulating snowfall.

Just a gentle 100 mile shift

That Dec 2018 storm was the most relaxed I had ever been ahead of a storm. It was absolutely locked in with zero budging for a week straight and every single model was on board as well as ensembles. Our flow right now is just not slow enough to make that possible.

It’d be absolutely hilarious if the storm that breaks the bad mojo in the foothills is just a carbon copy of Dec 2018. No snow for a few years? Sorry, how about 15”?

Dec 2018 vibes on that one

Modestly intriguing next week. Might actually have HP to work with.

Never start a storm thread again. Negative trends began the second we moved from the discussion thread.

-NAO from this point forward should be the litmus test on whether or not it’s worth being invested. No blocking, no bueno.

Yep I came here to say I’ve thrown in the towel lol. Brutal few days! We wasted an awesome pattern.

NW trend….. it’s time .

Walked outside to red skies this morning. I’m manifesting an uptrend boys. Pouring all of my vibes into this Caribbean atmosphere.

Shifts east or west are one thing but we’re sort of trending towards losing the storm all together

RRFS will save us

Yep, definitely not as juicy of a run.

Good analogy. I’m g5 fan, so I’ll liken it to app state’s death march between 2015-2019

I love the switch from “maybe the GFS is leading the way” to “it was never worth trusting.”

Needed to hear this one tonight when my daughter turned it on after today’s model runs .

Snow! Somewhere in the south, but not settled on where. A range of 6” to nothing for many per model guidance. Some solutions snow on the fish in the Atlantic, a few are almost at the Tennessee border. Also, a range of temps from “it will work” to “not a chance.” Much clarity added in the time you’ve been away!

Yep I was floored by that statement as well. full context: ”I’d like my chances with this if I was NE of Atlanta in NE GA so up thru the mountains & foothills of the Apps in NC and possibly even SW VALots to like about where these folks are sitting right now. When it comes to overrunning style winter storms, I’d much rather be worried about precip occurring than getting the cold air in time, because the precip almost always verifies much higher than forecast.”

CAMs will likely lead the way on this. Globals are not going to handle a WAA setup with great skill. Trends with short term model guidance will be the key from here on out.

We need you to come wade through our mess and be the voice of reason. You know how we get when there’s model madness. In the same boat as many of you! Hang in there, we’ll score eventually. Mother Nature hasn’t been too kind for eastern Tenn through the foothills of NC.