BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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One uptrend I’ve seen today is that the ensembles have thrown some haymakers in individual runs. Plenty of duds but some insane runs mixed in as well. Goes to show just how high ceiling *could* be. The southern jet cranking really opens the door for some bombs.
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I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.
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Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone.
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It’s the GEFS that I trash, yes, but interesting to see the ensemble members spitting out some absolute bangers in that 1/9 range. Euro AI with a nice I-85 storm in that range as well.
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We’re building towards cross polar flow on almost the entire 12z suite
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Eye candy .
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Gonna be some gnashing of teeth the next week or so I’m afraid. It’s going to be interesting to see this block develop but as the pacific gets squared away, I think we’re going to be working through some table setters. I’m bullish on our odds once we get the PNA to pop though.
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Winds are absolutely howling
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GEFS continues its woefully bad performance .
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It’s really encouraging to see that classic southern slider footprint present in the long term snowfall means. I just hope we don’t get too much cold press and suppress everything but with the southern jet looking as active as it does, we’re likely to see some really amped storms to balance things out.
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I think we’ll see that trough drop further west and south over time. You can see the run to run changes on the models, adjusting to our -NAO.
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I like that signal at this range. A storm and a 1036 hp in almost a perfect spot. Nudge that track a hair to the east and we’re going to see a hell of a clown map. At least the players are on the field.
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Definitely the best look we’ve had in a while! I like where we’re at. Could all go to pot but for now it’s hard not to weenie. I think someone on the east coast is getting a big dog and I love our odds with ample cold on this side of the globe.
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Hope nobody minds but it’s time to usher in Jammin Jan with a new thread
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Jammin January loading…let’s party
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I think the target remains Jan 10-Jan 30 roughly, but I don’t see a reason we can’t be mildly excited about the first 10 days. I’ve certainly seen us score with worse looks.
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JAMMIN JANUARY IS COMING
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The southern jet is getting active on just about every model. I think we’re going to start seeing some fantasy storms that break the forum here shortly.
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Every now and then I get a feeling we’re headed for glory. Last time I felt this way was around that Jan 2022 timeframe. Idk, I’ve got an itch. Let’s speak this pattern into existence. We’ve already bullied the Aleutian Ridge.
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If this all comes to fruition because of the pacific jet extending just enough but not overextending and pumping our southern shortwaves, it’s going to be a thing of beauty. We seemingly never have any component of the Pacific working for us and we may be staring down the barrel of an Aleutian Low, near ridge bridge on the west coast and impulses into the subtropical jet with blocking to boot. BUCKLE THE HECK UP. Get that coffee ready for those 1 am euro runs. LETS FREAKING GO
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If this blocking continues to establish, we’re in play even during a seemingly mild setup or stretch. I can’t recall a block this persistent or stout in some time. You’re bound to get a high to the north and a storm eventually. The southern jet is getting some life as well. Changes are afoot my friends.
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Again. It’s getting noisy in this timeframe. Euro has a cutter but a stout cad delivering an ice storm. .
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A lot of model noise for the 4th - 7th with more hits centered around the 6th.
