BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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I’m not saying it’s impossible but I think what’s likely to happen is a few ticks west that get us sort of in the game and then closer to game time, she’ll swing right again. What’s changed overnight is the handling of the ridge placement out west. I don’t imagine we keep seeing that trend much longer and I do think it’ll correct closer to its tilted look albeit to a lesser degree that it’s had.
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I’ve said this a thousand times and I’ll say it again. One of these days. May be this year, or it may be 10 years from now idk, but we’re getting an over amped negatively tilted Miller A. It’ll ride 50 miles inland and bury us. I will apologize to absolutely no one and I want to hear nothing about I-85 and climo when it does.
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For western NC, the day 7-8 timeframe is of interest. And it has been for days on many models.
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Fun event unloading tonight. Come on boys, someone setup a jeb walk livestream! I want to feel the blizzard too!
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At this point, small changes west or east with the shortwave are going to have major downstream implications
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Buckle up boys! This weekend is going to f****** suck!!
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Went to bed early and missed the excitement. I’m politely requesting a nw trend.
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Funny you say that: the NBM’s footprint is further west tonight than some of the snowier OPs we saw at 18z. It would favor Delmarva southwest through the Virginia/NC piedmonts into western NC.
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On the bright side, it’s Tuesday evening and we’re talking about Sunday, so still some time to go in the right direction.
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Gonna get ahead of the game by reminding everyone to be thankful it’s 45° and raining and we’re avoiding early heat as long as possible
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Don’t worry yall, the blocking will show up in April
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Tick tock….
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If anyone on this board scores other than my foothills crew, I’d want it to be @GaWx
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One of these days we’re going to get a juiced up low running just inland of the coast with a 1035 high over the top and I’m going to get banned from this forum when I see the first I-85 north snarky remark.
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The biggest fly in the ointment for all of us is that we accomplished an awesome ridge out west but it’s tilted to the east at the top. That’s what’s screwing us down the line. You can’t get any energy to drop into a better spot than the plains when the ridge is kicking the energy over Hudson Bay before dropping it in.
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Respectfully to all you folks down east, but I may crash out in a historic way if I watch Southport score again.
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An overrunning event Sunday would be the most ideal way to have an overrunning event. Most of the time those setups are rather marginal and you’re fighting modest rates, but it’s already going to be cold Sunday. Throw evaporative cooling into the mix and we’re talking about some higher than normal ratios outside the mountains.
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The footprint for Sunday screams overrunning on a few models, which is the only reason I’ll hold out some hope. We wouldn’t be remotely close to a final solution if it’s an overrunning event.
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For what it’s worth, the Ukie has support from its ensemble and the ensemble gets more and more aggressive with each run. As @BornAgain13pointed out, the AIGFS run improved. Actually, it’s a substantial improvement and looks similar to the Ukie at h5. Good to see the Ukie not on a complete island. Let’s see if 0z can get any others to work that way.
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Not sure this is a good thing imo. If we don’t get a 50/50 low or some blocking established, it’s going to be tough sledding with a lot of northern stream energy and little to slow it down and give it time to dig.
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This is going to be another step in the right direction. It’s not enough, but it went towards other guidance.
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Euro is further west from 0z on the second system at least through 90hrs. Energy dropping in from Montana to the plains.
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Tantalizing…. We are so so close to a big dog
