BooneWX

I’ve got a kid in daycare and it’s been an absolute nightmare of viruses since September really. This fall and winter has been a sick season on steroids.

You don’t have to. I peak over there to cross check the vibes and today is a hilarious war of words. That’s why I stick here. Everything is measured and while they have some great posters, it’s full of too many folks speaking in absolutes and getting obnoxious when the ball doesn’t roll their way. I go here to converse, read anything from @Carvers Gapto learn, and head there for my entertainment.

The SouthernWX forum has devolved into a war between warm weather trollers and the rest of the board lmao.

I’d say there’s a strong chance Monday morning will be the lowest temp of the winter season. I may eat my words, but low teens have been hard to come by for years now.

I take issue with Eric’s maps. A trace is measurable and I can say definitively that no location south of Yadkin County in the NC foothills has seen a trace this year. He has my area marked at 4 “trace” events. Our best event was a 2 hr period of off and on light snow that melted on contact.

It is what it is at this point. We won’t be the only ones suffering. Best advice I’ve got is for everyone to take a deep breath at the keyboard, go outside, smell some Christmas trees, golf, fish, get some vitamin d. It’s been a cold 3 weeks and a break won’t be bad. I hope it’s not extended but what can any of us do about it? Jammin January and Fab Feb are just around the corner.

I said this in the foothills thread the other day but the long range screams miller b possibilities east of the apps.

I’ve been exploring home snow makers so I can never experience a drought again

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. -NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

Bottom line: gotta kick that Aleutian Ridge

13.5! Let’s do this again in Jan, preferably after 10 inches of snow.

From what I’ve seen on Facebook, a dusting to a half an inch. It’s on the move, but I’d think if it had stayed stationary, some folks would’ve been smoked. Okracoke is getting in on the fun now.

Absolutely insane sound effect snow band .

It drives me nuts but not nearly as bad as seeing it snow weekly in the winter 20 miles from my house as the crow flies while I bask in the sun

The battle between cold air advection and sinking air in the lee is always a fun one to watch. It can humble the most stout fronts.

I finally made it. 31.8° - about 4 hrs late

Decent miller b pattern in the long range

The 12z GEFS shows an interesting evolution of the Scandinavian ridge. Its retrogrades west quickly, establishing a strong -NAO, which then pumps the cold air over Quebec down the east coast while our death ridge gets beaten into oblivion. Despite that, there’s enough of a gradient that one has to think it would open the opportunity for either a miller b or an overrunning setup that would favor the upper southeast and yes, east of the apps for once.

I’ve really stalled out at 41. I’ve been here a while. Unimpressed. Strong cold front, sure but yesterday’s projections had me at 32 by now.

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday.

There’s nothing about my extended forecast that looks like a torch to me. Above average? Sure. Upper 50s? Far from tanning by the pool.

Temps are starting to fall off the cliff here

Very nice day. It felt good to get outside. I even took the fly rod down to the pond near my house just to see if the bass were biting (they weren’t). I figured that’d be the case with the cold water temps but this warmup should get them stirring again. I might have to take a trip up the mountain to do a little trout fishing.

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific.

No Roxboro jackpot, toss it out