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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    GSP cut my expected snowfall by half an inch but increased the high end by an inch. In short - nobody knows!
  2. BooneWX
    SREF mean looks like it’ll be slightly less but overall not much of a change
  3. BooneWX
    Wait until the northern stream hears about this
  4. BooneWX
    I think the big thing tomorrow is that some stretch of western NC is likely to get completely blanked. It’s the nature of these systems moving west to east. The big question is where.
  5. BooneWX
    I have little faith in SREF plumes but I did find it interesting for KHKY that yesterday there was good consensus for a sub-2” event with most members below the mean line. Today there are two groups forming: one is a tight cluster between 2.5-4” and another slightly smaller but still large cluster between 1-2”. Yesterday, several members blanked KHKY and today, none do. Outliers: 2 members @ .35” 4 members (up from 2 members yesterday) >5”
  6. BooneWX
    Lee side trough for the win?
  7. BooneWX
    The NAM was much more muted than recent runs with convection in the gulf. That’s the wildcard tomorrow and why I think some models are so paltry and some are much improved. @HKY_WXremind me - isn’t there a rule for the orientation of those storms in the Gulf? Some setups enhance moisture transport to the north while others choke it off?
  8. BooneWX
    Could’ve been much better as well. I poked around soundings and it has sleet/snow for many hours with a clear snow sounding.
  9. BooneWX
    I’ll say this - wouldn’t it be HILARIOUS if this topped the Jan 11th event? I’d only need more than 2.1” to make that a reality, not likely but attainable with a little Lee side trough.
  10. BooneWX
    3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too.
  11. BooneWX
    Problem is - there’s two major inhibitors for gulf moisture transport to WNC: - the original low dying out and transferring to the Atlantic is bound to leave a dry slot somewhere. We rarely benefit from a west to east transfer. - several models are hinting at robust convection in the gulf, cutting off our already limited gulf feed. I think THIS is the wildcard. Those storms or lack thereof can mean the difference between getting blanked or having a huge shocker.
  12. BooneWX
    One day we’re going to get ours again and I’m not apologizing to a soul.
  13. BooneWX
    I’ve seen this orientation of the moisture like many of you have my whole life. We’ll see a flizzard most of the day tomorrow off and on but it’ll never accumulate.
  14. BooneWX
    I refuse to call this storm a miller a. Doing so is a complete slap in the face to the great miller A’s of the past.
  15. BooneWX
    FV3 with our hopium
  16. BooneWX
    FV3 juicy through 37
  17. BooneWX
    Out to hour 30, the southern wave is much stronger on the NAM
  18. BooneWX
    HRRR is at its best when it has actual radar returns to verify against. It won’t be in its wheelhouse until tomorrow evening.
  19. BooneWX
    I have to step back and remind myself every now and then that this isn’t rain. The difference between .1 QPF and .4 QPF isnt an egregious or wild jump to hope for with over 24hrs to go. And on the ground that’s the difference between a novelty event and a winter storm warning.
  20. BooneWX
    Hmmmm. Better tilt on this HRRR run…
  21. BooneWX
    Euro AI has ticked west for 2 runs now, no I don’t have the clown for it
  22. BooneWX
    Sref has the vort near the upstate Thurs morning so that would thump NC
  23. BooneWX
    Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas.
  24. BooneWX
    For me, I’m just looking at it as potential guidance for how the 0z NAM will look
  25. BooneWX
    As @WXNewtonpointed out in the main thread - SREF is up dramatically. This should be a fun 0z run for the NAM.
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