BooneWX

Erin looks like it’s definitely going to be a mess for the OBX. It won’t be anything they aren’t used to, but it looks more and more likely that they’ll feel a big push of water + TS winds. What a crazy system. It’s always fascinating to see these MDR systems go from tight compact, Charley-like cores to large real estate systems in just a few days. Weather is cool.

This took me by surprise, not gonna lie. I was expecting showery activity but this has been a complete washout. .95” on the day so far, but like you said, plenty more coming.

6z 3K NAM has almost 8 inches from Cleveland and Rutherford counties up to my neck of the woods. It looks like a new fetch sets up overnight in the foothills. HRRR wayyyyy further east with the axis.

First, I absolutely realize this is the equivalent of posting a 10:1 snowfall map 300 hrs out but to my point yesterday, I think we’re heading for some dangerously prime conditions in the SW Atlantic. Sea surface temps are bath tub warm, it looks like whatever wave makes it west of the Antilles will have optimally low shear and won’t be competing with dry air. “Ridge over troubled water” pattern inbound… Lots of solutions on the table but this ridiculous one from the GFS isn’t the only model firing warning shots. The ensembles seem to like the odds of a strong system on this side of the hemisphere in 10ish days. .

It has support from the HRRR too. 4+” through early Wed for a large chunk of the foothills with more convection as it went out of range.

It might be a bit of ptsd, but I’m getting worried about this pattern ahead of an increasingly favorable Atlantic.

That is absolutely wild. Only .11” over here!

I think Mother Nature heard your comments about the lack of rain in Marion @wncsnow

There’s been a lot of localized convection robbing from surrounding areas thanks to what seems like Lee enhancement near linville gorge and Wilson creek. Almost all of my action has had to happen organically from cells starting in Alexander County drifting s/sw. It doesn’t matter how robust the storms are near the escarpment, they just get anchored, rain out and spawn new ones over the same exact spot.

We’ve been lucky two days in a row here. A little over a quarter inch yesterday and another half inch today with more training cells lining up. Certainly made for 2 pleasant evenings in the upper 70s.

Lil bit warm outside

It’s certainly been a pattern of have’s and have nots. Yesterday and last week delivered about an inch total for me but I know people not too far from me that are approaching 6” in that same span.

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning.

My tempest may be overdoing it, but I’m at 6.57” for the week. The Wednesday night action was over 4” alone.

Next week is going to be brutal for anyone below 2,500 ft in the southeast. I’m fine with a dry stretch but I hope this doesn’t become permanent like last summer. I went about 6 weeks without more than a quarter inch of rain total.

Incredibly fast EWRC

These storms have been some frog drowners

Summer has arrived. Hang on tight, because you’re not allowed to get off the ride until at least Oct 31 for the most part.

Someone is going to get nailed with widespread 90° temps and dews in the 60s, no doubt. Figuring out where these MCS’s go is always such a crap shoot though. It’s been fun to watch the HRRR swing entire regions every few runs. if anyone wants some chuckles, the NAM has cape about 4,000 for a chunk of the Carolina’s tomorrow.

We’ve been on a roll recently with having normal rainfall events at regular intervals.

Yea I’m worried about the fire risk too. We’ve had some seriously dry summers lately so I’m hoping maybe we catch a break and have regular storms for once. Our region is due some peace and quiet.

Wedged in on Memorial Day - the annual tradition. It’s been a true spring, I feel like we’ve been spoiled with that the past few years. Maybe holding back the heat is our reward for the boring winters. Ain’t gonna lie though, it’s pool and boat season - bring on the heat. A cold beer doesn’t quench the thirst as well when it’s in the 50s and low 60s. Also, hope all of yall are well. I took a bit of a hiatus from weather the past month or two but I’ll be rummaging around the forum a bit more as we get into cumulonimbus season.

Unsettled week ahead. I’m not going to complain, we need it.

On the bright side, hopefully it means this cool weather is kicking rocks.

Idk if I’ve ever been ready for a downpour more than I am for tomorrow’s. This pollen has to be among the worst I’ve ever seen.