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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    I’ll say this - wouldn’t it be HILARIOUS if this topped the Jan 11th event? I’d only need more than 2.1” to make that a reality, not likely but attainable with a little Lee side trough.
  2. BooneWX
    3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too.
  3. BooneWX
    Problem is - there’s two major inhibitors for gulf moisture transport to WNC: - the original low dying out and transferring to the Atlantic is bound to leave a dry slot somewhere. We rarely benefit from a west to east transfer. - several models are hinting at robust convection in the gulf, cutting off our already limited gulf feed. I think THIS is the wildcard. Those storms or lack thereof can mean the difference between getting blanked or having a huge shocker.
  4. BooneWX
    One day we’re going to get ours again and I’m not apologizing to a soul.
  5. BooneWX
    I’ve seen this orientation of the moisture like many of you have my whole life. We’ll see a flizzard most of the day tomorrow off and on but it’ll never accumulate.
  6. BooneWX
    I refuse to call this storm a miller a. Doing so is a complete slap in the face to the great miller A’s of the past.
  7. BooneWX
    FV3 with our hopium
  8. BooneWX
    FV3 juicy through 37
  9. BooneWX
    Out to hour 30, the southern wave is much stronger on the NAM
  10. BooneWX
    HRRR is at its best when it has actual radar returns to verify against. It won’t be in its wheelhouse until tomorrow evening.
  11. BooneWX
    I have to step back and remind myself every now and then that this isn’t rain. The difference between .1 QPF and .4 QPF isnt an egregious or wild jump to hope for with over 24hrs to go. And on the ground that’s the difference between a novelty event and a winter storm warning.
  12. BooneWX
    Hmmmm. Better tilt on this HRRR run…
  13. BooneWX
    Euro AI has ticked west for 2 runs now, no I don’t have the clown for it
  14. BooneWX
    Sref has the vort near the upstate Thurs morning so that would thump NC
  15. BooneWX
    Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas.
  16. BooneWX
    For me, I’m just looking at it as potential guidance for how the 0z NAM will look
  17. BooneWX
    As @WXNewtonpointed out in the main thread - SREF is up dramatically. This should be a fun 0z run for the NAM.
  18. BooneWX
    The NAM should be weenie territory for some
  19. BooneWX
    Also realized tonight we’ll need some rates. It’ll be below freezing or at freezing for the most part but yall already know the dandruff blizzards struggle to accumulate, let alone during the day.
  20. BooneWX
    Overall if you’re west of Greensboro, today’s trends have been positive. Roughly the same (good) to the east.
  21. BooneWX
    I thought the evolution overall was better. Close to an all day event and I’d imagine even when you aren’t getting returns, it’s probably snizzle. If we could get that low to crank just a bit earlier, we’re really in the game. The northern foothills benefited greatly from that.
  22. BooneWX
    2 distinct waves on the 3k. If we could somehow bridge the gap a bit, it probably gets us another inch.
  23. BooneWX
    SREF looked better out west for us. Hopefully it’s indicative of a good 18z NAM run.
  24. BooneWX
    I was just coming here to say that. This is where you start to transition your focus to the higher res models before nowcasting tomorrow night.
  25. BooneWX
    Need a @Hvwardupdate
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