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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. Is this one of the AI models? That’s a climatologically favored look.
  2. While we’re putting out requests, mark me down for it to be a 1040
  3. Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor.
  4. Climbing the coast doesn’t create negative tilt, we just need the energy to dig a bit more and consolidate, which gives us a better chance at a negatively tilted storm. Right now it’s weak and strung out. It’s shooting out to sea at the moment because it has no room to lift north because of the 50/50 low blocking it near Nova Scotia. The trend during 12z is to scoot that 50/50 low further east, letting the storm have more room to climb and high pressure feeding cold air down the spine of the apps. All positive steps but a slightly more amplified storm would help a bit.
  5. Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps.
  6. Better cad signature on the euro this run but it’s still not going to cut it
  7. As I said in the Mtn thread yesterday, I had a feeling this would trend towards a CAD event if it continued trending towards an event at all. Let’s reel this one in boys. I love the look of the mean for our region.
  8. Wouldn’t sweat the euro. A 985 mb low just off of Myrtle beach that’s essentially completely devoid of moisture isn’t an output I’d take literally.
  9. I think that’s where we’re headed in the end. I can’t remember which met on twitter mentioned this yesterday, but if that low near Maine doesn’t start trending further east, this is less likely to be a slider and more likely to be a coastal storm.
  10. Also today could be rough. It’ll take a lot less wind than normal to push trees over, after the deluge we’ve had.
  11. I just need to bite the bullet and pay for the weather bell subscription. These ensemble graphs always remind me of what I’m missing out on.
  12. Murphy to manteo to the upstate and in between. That’s what this board needs. Don’t even care if it takes a much less amped storm and smaller totals to make it happen.
  13. Are my eyes deceiving me or is the NAM suggesting the smokies get smokied by 30+ inches??
  14. Man what a flip overnight. The long range had hinted at the 4-6th timeframe for days but that Euro run made me knees weak.
  15. Clown maps aside. The gfs shows the potential that we’ve waited all winter long for. Feb has always been the target with a strong El Niño, so let’s see if it can deliver. Lord knows this forum needs it lol.
  16. This sub forum needs a blockbuster storm like a fish needs water. We’ve never been collectively down this bad as a group. fwiw, I see both sides being right. The cold dumped east, just not east enough. Unfortunately for us, the trough didn’t dig into our area which kept it mostly seasonal - save a few days - and bottled it up west of the apps. We really were just a few hundred (less in many cases)miles from an all-time week here. It just didn’t pan out. Two things we appear to be getting that we haven’t had consistently in a while: - a +PNA - one that pushes into Alaska and makes the energy more likey to dig where we need it. We haven’t had a good synoptic storm in so long because the pacific pattern sucks. An -NAO is useless if the PNA is junk. Hang in there!
  17. And the timeline has moved up quite a bit!
  18. You’re probably more likely to be right but idk. I have a funny feeling about mid-Feb. Eventually the streak of no-snow ends and it may be next year but I’ll hang on to hope even if it’s false hope until Feb 25th.
  19. It’s always this progression: cold—-brief warm up—-rain——cold——brief warm up on the bright side, the pattern is reloading. Is this our shot? Idk. If we get to Feb 25th with nothing, I’ll be ready to punt our way into spring. I’m still optimistic for now though - it’s probably the best pattern in a while for our region since the cold doesn’t look displaced too far west.
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