BooneWX

For sure. I have a ton of respect for GSP - that’s why I said I would like to have heard some of those conversations that led to the decision given the guidance - wasn’t questioning their thought’s themselves. Would’ve been nice to be a fly on the wall as a weather nerd.

About 51 when I was out there with 40 mph gusts. Felt a lot colder than the actual temp. We had a weird isolated shower hours after the main line and we were well on our way to warmth but that set midday heating way back locally.

I think the track is pretty baked in at this point imo. We need to root for earlier phasing or just an undermodeled precip shield.

I’d be curious to hear the chatter in the room when making this because not a single ounce of guidance supports this west of 77. .

Miserable cold and windy weather this evening. Count me in for a warm spring.

It’s got as much of a chance going NW as Hubert has to return to UNC next year

PULL THE PLUG.

We just need the HRRR to save us now

I’m nervous anywhere west of 95 imo. Take that as you will because I’m genuinely not trying to sound trollish, but that northern stream is crushing the system

Not very

I was just coming here to say this. GSP was chicken noodle soup for the soul this afternoon with their disco. They are sticking with a potential warning level event. My point forecast says “90% chance of heavy snow” on Wednesday.

Can confirm on this side of the apps - brutal trends! Just been a tough few years for us in the Lee. It’s been since Dec 2018 that this area has had a classic Miller A thumping. After Helene, I was hoping Mother Nature would reward the area with a good treat this winter but I have to remind myself that’s not how weather works.

As @wncsnowput it, atmospheric memory seems to be a thing.

Problem is - over the past few days, we’ve leaned back into some of our bad habits from this winter. Northern stream dominated energy instead of the juicy southern stream predictions yesterday and prior. It’s a completely different storm in that regard and that cold press is stronger and stronger with each model run. There’s certainly a benefit to the latter - you get less WAA, but you also play a dangerous game of watching it vanish. I remember the gulf coast storm originally being a lower Tennessee valley event.

Pretty far. There’s nothing in the upper levels preventing this from going OTS completely

If only! Would be nice to score in one of the only 2 ways it’s humanly possible to score here (miller a or b). That’s why I always chuckle at the “foothills are climo favored.” Climo favored my ass! Too far east for flow snow, shadowed for everything else. 2 ways to get snow and two ways only here.

Gut says this isn’t an event for anyone west of 95 but we’ll see. NW trend is something to watch for but we’ve SE trended this whole winter up to go time with the exception of a few storms.

A hell of a year for the I-95 corridor in the central eastern/northeastern part of the state. Probably the best winter in decades if this one pans out.

That’s not a win, that’s the ceiling. Win would be flurries the way this is going.

Euro with the dagger

I hope it wasn’t taken that way. There’s some great posters down that way that I’d be happy for. I took issue with the jab @wncsnow when they’ve trolled this entire pattern for weeks. Now that it might be going their way, they want everyone to quit talking about anything other than RDU.

One thing I’m hoping for with the LP track is that meso models show the upslope enchantment were used to seeing with type of system.

I’m probably going to get blasted in the main thread for that, but nothing is more ironic than RDU posters who have trolled the mid range disco for weeks with spring posts telling everyone to not generalize this storm

This is rich coming from a “winter cancel” guy that’s been part of negatively flooding the mid range discussion with despair for weeks.

Just started here. Went from dead calm to howling in 30 min.