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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    FV3 with our hopium
  2. BooneWX
    FV3 juicy through 37
  3. BooneWX
    Out to hour 30, the southern wave is much stronger on the NAM
  4. BooneWX
    HRRR is at its best when it has actual radar returns to verify against. It won’t be in its wheelhouse until tomorrow evening.
  5. BooneWX
    I have to step back and remind myself every now and then that this isn’t rain. The difference between .1 QPF and .4 QPF isnt an egregious or wild jump to hope for with over 24hrs to go. And on the ground that’s the difference between a novelty event and a winter storm warning.
  6. BooneWX
    Hmmmm. Better tilt on this HRRR run…
  7. BooneWX
    Euro AI has ticked west for 2 runs now, no I don’t have the clown for it
  8. BooneWX
    Sref has the vort near the upstate Thurs morning so that would thump NC
  9. BooneWX
    Looks like 2 distinct thumps projected by SREF with round 2 on Thursday being almost as good for many areas.
  10. BooneWX
    For me, I’m just looking at it as potential guidance for how the 0z NAM will look
  11. BooneWX
    As @WXNewtonpointed out in the main thread - SREF is up dramatically. This should be a fun 0z run for the NAM.
  12. BooneWX
    The NAM should be weenie territory for some
  13. BooneWX
    Also realized tonight we’ll need some rates. It’ll be below freezing or at freezing for the most part but yall already know the dandruff blizzards struggle to accumulate, let alone during the day.
  14. BooneWX
    Overall if you’re west of Greensboro, today’s trends have been positive. Roughly the same (good) to the east.
  15. BooneWX
    I thought the evolution overall was better. Close to an all day event and I’d imagine even when you aren’t getting returns, it’s probably snizzle. If we could get that low to crank just a bit earlier, we’re really in the game. The northern foothills benefited greatly from that.
  16. BooneWX
    2 distinct waves on the 3k. If we could somehow bridge the gap a bit, it probably gets us another inch.
  17. BooneWX
    SREF looked better out west for us. Hopefully it’s indicative of a good 18z NAM run.
  18. BooneWX
    I was just coming here to say that. This is where you start to transition your focus to the higher res models before nowcasting tomorrow night.
  19. BooneWX
    Need a @Hvwardupdate
  20. BooneWX
    I’ll say this. Someone correct me if I’m wrong and granted it was a miller b, but I vividly remember in 2022, that storm had paltry QPf 48 hrs before the storm only to see the 3k and HRRR come into range and slowly tick up. Eventually it got all the way to .7 imby.
  21. BooneWX
    Baby steps here at 12z, baby steps….. I have to keep reminding myself that even a minor uptick of .1 or .2 QPF takes this from a nuisance to moderate event.
  22. BooneWX
    Honestly I’d take 1-2” imby, call it a winter and welcome the pollen with open arms.
  23. BooneWX
    So maybe the NAM stopped the bleeding? Let’s see what the rest of the suite holds.
  24. BooneWX
    Paltry. The transfer to the coast is going to really do a number on CNC as well imo. Someone forecasted to get 2-4” is going to get dry slotted.
  25. BooneWX
    It took me a bit to get used to the sensitivity of the glass rod, but man, when you do, it’s incredible. It makes a 6” brookie feel like a smallmouth.
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