BooneWX

Grit is favoring a hybrid miller a/b with a classic mess in the foothills

What sucks: most AI guidance being an ice storm What doesn’t suck: Google DeepMind (#1 model), says WNC gets Dec 2018 redo

Speaking through a NC lens mostly: I think at this point I feel pretty confident in verifying some sort of winter storm across the region this weekend but man are the red flags apparent. AI models have been outperforming the globals and to no surprise (or with our luck), of course they’re north with the coldest air and snow as the warm nose rages during the event. I’m not sold on that being the final solution, but if we get into tonight/tomorrow morning and it’s looking the same, we might be screwed. The AI models have been very locked in from day 4/5 on this winter. They have struggled a bit with a warm bias but generally, they nail the footprint in the medium-short range. I still think at worst, this is a sleet fest for most of the state. Last thought: for someone this will be an ice storm for the ages. Idc if the HP is over upstate NY, Ottawa, Iowa, whatever. It’s going to be somewhere in a favorable position and it’s going to be strong. This favors an abnormally large area of mixed precip and stupidly low temps being fed by a steady pump of cold, dry air. Remember, freezing rain is self limited if the cad is in-situ, but not when it’s an anchored HP to the north. Latent heat release can’t compete with that much caa. We’re talking nightmare type of stuff. Sometimes it helps if the precip is heavy, but in the mid 20s, that won’t matter either.

Do not get excited Boone, do not get excited Boone. You’ve been hurt too many times. .

Gonna collect some thoughts when I have time later but this is just absolutely absurd

Now here’s some guidance that is appropriate for injecting hope .

Good or bad runs, it doesn’t matter with this upcoming storm - the gfs can’t be valued in any depiction. It’s as useful as the hrrr at 48 hrs.

Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off.

Which model verified best for today’s event in your eyes? I feel like the Euro AI did really well but I may be wrong.

Need to keep that HP position. Right now it prevents a cutter but scoot it east and a 1040 is going to lead to some bone dry weather.

Yep. Typical SE trend will commence. And no I’m not kidding or being sarcastic with that statement.

Wish I would’ve never seen that

Insane 12z suite lmao. If we didn’t have an active storm at this very moment, the board would be crashing.

I feel for yall. I had a bad feeling for all down east when my temp 10 miles from the escarpment wasn’t dropping at 12 am last night.

It was fun for a few minutes! Nice to see some flakes. Next 10-14 days look really anomalous and promising. Can’t wait to see it devolve into some northern stream dominated mess and I have to watch the beach boys get 460”. Make our climo great again!

Congrats to all that scored today! Wild to see snow that far south two years in a row. This is the type of anomaly that will turn some kids into meteorologists.

Insane blocking signature showing up. Let’s just get the southern jet involved and we’ll cook.

LIGHT SNOW

Radar filling in across WNC. Let’s see if we can get at least a few mood flakes.

A painful amount of “close but no cigar” setups in WNC for a while now. We’re snow starved down in the foothills but yall kinda are too. Ik nwf happens frequently but it feels like it’s been a century since anyone west of I-77 has seen a synoptic setup.

Agree 100% with everything above. To me, the biggest takeaway from this storm won’t be the models though. We all should’ve known better because there was no semblance of a HP to our north. Truly a cold chasing moisture event and out of 20 storms, you might score on 1/2 of those setups. Moving forward, I’ll be discounting any storm that doesn’t have this. It’s a minimum requirement around here for snow.

Game on if the blocking comes to fruition, but that’s the main thing I’ll be watching. Nice ridge bridge showing up near the arctic, displacing the TPV almost to New England. Could also be a suppression signal with extreme cold but we seem to have a Nino look and an increasingly active southern jet which makes sense with how fast the Nina background state is collapsing.

I know the caveats but the AI models really have a barking signal in that 7-10 day range. Can’t trust a thing, but the big dogs always bark early. There’s some absolutely insane ensemble means being printed out cycle after cycle. Gives me some of the same vibes from Dec 2009, Feb 2014 and Dec 2018.

You might be seeing the edge of the arctic air a bit before me. Or at least, that’s what I’m telling myself to feel better.

Lmao. I’m at 46 with a dew of 39. Gonna take a hell of an arctic push to even get to the upper 30s.