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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. Moderate snow here in eastern Burke! Half an inch on the ground already. 25/35 with a stiff NE breeze.
  2. Moderate snow, 25/23, NE 4 mph, Icard. Loving every second of it! Maybe a half an inch on the ground.
  3. Someone is getting thundersnow tomorrow morning as that band cranks. It looks very convective on the HRRR.
  4. That stiff NE breeze is getting more and more noticeable. Up 8 mph here in Icard. 37/28
  5. I totally understand that, I think my statement may have been misunderstood a bit. I was simply mocking the absurdity of it - not suggesting it can’t happen. There’s just not a lot of precedent for this storm track.
  6. My eyes may be deceiving me, but it seems like the low is roughly 50-75 miles south of where many projected it to be. The bigger and more important question now is how far east it can slide before starting the climb north.
  7. Surface low has popped right along the gulf. It’s splitting hairs but it seems like it’s roughly 50-75 miles further south than the HRRR which is already the coldest
  8. Color me shocked that it’ll be in gatlinburg from that position in 12 hrs.
  9. If either of those models are correct, I’m calling it a huge coup for the GFS
  10. Well, after 24 hrs of negative trends, the short range models finally realize that CAD exists!
  11. It was an absolute death band. Near 2 inch per hour rates for a bit.
  12. HRRR with 1-2 inch per hr rates in the morning
  13. Lol my projection an hour ago is now my “1 in 10” chance.
  14. Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs?
  15. Pumped they started a thread for Friday’s threat so the whining will dry up in the main storm thread.
  16. It was looking so good until the low suddenly went poleward 150 miles in an hour.
  17. I know it’s strong but color me shocked if a low in Charleston produces sleet and freezing rain all the way to the mountains.
  18. Has to be resolving the system incorrectly. The isobars suggest it’s still in middle Georgia on that frame.
  19. That back end band is going to thump some folks
  20. Weird. The low pressure position is significantly better but it shows worse results
  21. We didn’t discuss it much but the 06z GFS didn’t blink. It’s been telling the same story for 8+ runs now.
  22. Yea I’m still not buying it but that’s more of a gut feeling than anything. I mean at Hr 32, it’s a 996 low in Banner Elk with zero signs of coastal transfer.
  23. I’m no expert but looking at some of the “sleet” soundings, it sure seems like it’d still be a Snow/Sleet mix. The warm nose is there but not egregiously in our area. I imagine it’d be snowing fatties and mixing with a bit of sleet.
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