BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Reminds me a lot of the storm a month or two ago that dumped 4” on Mount Airy and almost no one else in NC. Seems to be the sweet spot outside of the mountains this year. They may be taking Roxboro’s title.
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In other news: insanely beautiful day. Spring fever in full effect.
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Man these models keep trending wetter and wetter for this week and of course it’s us, the mountains and E TN. This region has had enough misery these past few months. Unreal luck.
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Agreed. P8 is going to give us a shot for the north of I-85 crowd.
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I think we’ve got one more crack at it, pattern wise, beyond Valentine’s with the heart of the cold probably centering around the 20th-the end of the month. It’s been a long time since we’ve scored in Feb but a big part of that has been due to an unfavorable Pacific and never journeying through the cold phases of the MJO. I don’t think the MJO is everything but I’ll take my chances in phase 8 & 1 any time.
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I’ll take the bait. I think winter is over for your area, but late Feb phase 8 MJO with a neutral to weak Nina can work from the upstate north.
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Yea this is a non-issue south of VA. I think we get one last crack in the climo favored regions once we get into phase 8 of the MJO and then it’s curtain call time.
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Yep. The Helene region is just fine with rain if snow is off the table.
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I’m afraid of this as well. I’ll be hitting blue line creeks in higher elevations targeting specs and splitting my other time for crappie and bass on the lake.
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Get that pre emergent down boys! Don’t wait or you’ll be regretting it come April. I think an early spring is coming for once. I don’t personally see this flipping to extended cold with an established and strengthening La Niña in March/April. edit: except we’ll absolutely have a wedge for opening day of trout season. Absolutely given lol.
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Got my pre emergent down just in time
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Just have to endure a week or two of it at most and then it won’t rain a drop for 6 more weeks.
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I can see we’re going to do this thing again where we don’t have normal rain ever. Feast or famine. Wildfires or flood stage. Nothing in between.
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MJO wins 9/10. Our perception of climo has been harshly driven by never leaving phases 4-7 for years.
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I don’t think the maps are out yet but track and evolution wise, not much has changed from previous runs.
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Admittedly worried that this is more of an ice look (for now) than snow south of VA. You’ve got plenty of cold air to tap from the north and I know we don’t live at the 500mb level but man that ridge is going to do its thing unless you’ve got a really robust high in the correct position. Trending better the past few days on blocking should help but there will be a fine line between big ice and big snow. Unfortunately, cad areas are just as due - if not more, for the former than the latter.
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The GFS wasn’t done
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Really interested to see if our EPS uptick continues
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GFS is a decent CAD region hit. Notably, it trended SE from its 6z run.
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Also, optimism should be higher. So many think Feb snow is impossible and I just watched oil rigs in the Gulf get buried not even 2 weeks ago. It’s been a weird winter. Anything is on the table, including 80s this week and snow next.
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It’s doing that thing again - the thing where it doesn’t move an inch for endless amounts of runs. More indicative of the performance we saw with the early Jan storm. It didn’t nail amounts but it did nail evolution and track.
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lol it did last storm
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I like where we sit for now
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Haven’t had a chance to digest the 18z data but my biggest takeaway from the 12z was the EPS steadily increasing amounts again for the CAD regions. Of anything at D9/10, that’s the one thing I’d prefer to have in my corner. Anything else is noise at this range.
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I’ll say this. Living in the foothills for most of my life, when we do get a big storm, the signal usually starts around D9/10 and only progresses louder. That doesn’t mean to say it happens often, but when it does, it’s rarely something that starts coming together 3/4 days out.
