BooneWX

GSP up on totals for everything this morning. Chat, are we cooked??

My gut says no lulls for us. Models and even real time radar will not pick up the low level moisture getting squeezed out. These “dry” slots aren’t dry and they’re nightmare fuel for the foothills. We’re going to have the most efficient type of ice accretion method pumping in those lulls — freezing drizzle.

HRRR with painfully low dews. Like -10 in the piedmont of Nc.

Because weather apps are based on nothing we in this group value: precedence, analogs, multiple data points and human input. It’s why I hate that any of these apps bother. All it does is mislead the public.

I agree. It’s madness as well having this much access to data. I yearn for the lost days where you had to wait 12 hrs to see a limited amount of models. Information overload. 2 hrs ago everyone was breathing deeper with cams showing more sleet. One mild shift in the gfs an hour later and we can toss the 36 hrs of freezing rain in the 20s it showed. You’re all nuts, but it’s what keeps me coming back.

I don’t know if we’re all looking for an escape route or what, but if you’ve lived in the cad region for any substantial period of time and you think we’re swinging into the teens and will be above freezing Sunday night, hop up, grab a Marlboro red, go outside and smoke for a few minutes and then come back in and comment. Raleigh? Maybe. NE Georgia and the southwest Blue Ridge? Could see it there too. Also, I’m not saying toss globals at this juncture. They don’t become less useful late in the game but we’re now shifting gears to CAMs. Watch trends there. HRRR has sub zero dews and the FV3 is an ice box as well.

That ice forecast is freezing rain accrual. Sleet gets counted as snow accumulation.

Right image. They’re opening a door I’m walking in. Tell me not to. .

These slow methodical ticks south/more southerly transfer give me some jan 2022 vibes. That system was a lot drier but nonetheless.

I may have said this earlier but I remember 2022 having some similarities to a lesser extreme from a qpf standpoint. I recall that puppy looking like all sleet and some frz rain and then it kept trending further south with the transfer until go time. We landed with a transfer from roughly Chattanooga to Charleston and got a good half foot of sleet/snow.

This a very nw of I-85 comment so ignore if you’re south of there, but in your typical miller b, there’s always an underestimated amount of front end thump. Happens every freakin time. Any more ticks like we’ve seen and it gets really interesting.

Wake up boys, the GFS says front end thump.

WAGONS SOUTH

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Jimbo, I think your surgery might be delayed

Damage in the drizzle. That’ll be my thing to watch during this storm. We don’t want slack rates.

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Good luck scouring that wedge. It’s not an in-situ wedge, it’s a mega wedgie on steroids

I guess what’s the old rule though? It’s not the first storm, usually the 2nd?

You know good and well how this next one pans out! Actual suppression this time and a Pensacola winter dream. I don’t make the rules.

I’d have to look back but if I remember right, miller b transfers usually blank areas from Greensboro east, not so much the western half of the state. We’ll be in near constant upslope flow, which is why I think our onset could be late Sat morning.

Ah so here we are again! No lessons learned folks?

Yep. This is going to be a scenario where you’re either seeing sleet under heavy returns or near constant freezing drizzle in between. Also, the lighter the returns, the less the waa works to the ground, so you’re going to lock in closer to 20 with no escape route.

Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual.