BooneWX

One not so fun trend I’m seeing for the foothills is the clear downsloping signal on the globals. A tale older than time. These setups are notoriously difficult to pull off in the immediate Lee.

As always: looking forward to your video update!

Pretty much the exact same convective nature. There’s a reason they call upper level lows a “forecasters woe.” Some will be happy, most will be pissed.

This whole setup is going to be extremely rate dependent. I highly doubt anyone outside of the mountains will experience a lot of light snow. It’ll either be snowing cats and dogs or you’ll be getting drizzle and light rain. The joys of an ULL right? Someone under a death band and someone else getting rain a few miles away.

I could easily see an evolution where unless you’re above 3k ft, it’s extremely rate dependent. Which would be fitting, because the joys of an ULL also mean someone doesn’t get under a convective band and has to experience the agony.

Would’ve loved to have seen the NAM go out about 6 more hours because she was preparing to unload.

It’s late in the range but the NAM looked primed to go boom.

GFS paste bomb!

LAWWWWWWD

Nothing like seeing the Hot sign on

Always hate the risks associated with ULLs but in this pattern, that’s how we can score. Those would be some absolute fatties falling if it were to unfold.

What’s even wilder is that Mt. Washington is literally located in the stratosphere tonight. Those are true polar vortex winds.

You could make a very convincing argument over the past decade that the worst location for snow in NC is the Lee/escarpment. It sounds asinine given the CAD potential and higher elevation but dang. Downsloped on flow and eastward tracking upper lows. And many storms phase too late for us to be part of the fun. 2018 was nice but holy cow I don’t remember a time where we’ve been in snow poverty worse than this stretch of years.

I officially have more rain in the month of January at my location than inches of snow over the past 3 years. edit: forgot the upper level low in Feb 2021 that brought me a few surprise inches but still pretty close

I’m personally pulling for a record breaking SER that cuts the storms through the plains and ends this deluge of water each week.

Just hang on, happy hours gfs never disappoints

6.3 inches on the year already! This week should get me close to 7 and a half. I sound like a broken record but it’s an absolutely absurd pattern that we’ve been in since October. I thought 2018 couldn’t be topped but we’ll be well on our way in WNC.

Hey now. It makes finding a rock to stand on all that much easier.

I’ve tried to dial back my pessimism the last few weeks since it’s still early but I think it’s safe to say our odds in the SE for a synoptic event this winter are trending down quick. Wouldn’t totally be shocked to see a fluke event such as an upper low digging at the perfect time but this just might not be our year for a biggie. Hope I’m wrong! On the bright side, for most you, snow is possible through April. It might be a backloaded winter in the High Country anyways, because it seems like our pattern always goes harshly cold in March lately.

Thank goodness! Saw 2 days of dry weather on the forecast and started to get concerned it was going to become a trend.

One thing I really liked that I haven’t seen in a while: the models despite a pesky SE ridge were honking with CAD signals. That gives me some optimism that we could at least score a Miller B type of setup in the next few weeks.

Interesting! We’ve been so wet in western NC that I was frankly oblivious to any drought conditions this close by. Other than 2016, I can’t really recall when we’ve truly been substantially below average in this part of the SE. We had a 2 week dry period this august and no lie, I think that was the first time I’ve mowed my lawn and had bone dry wheels in 3+ years.

I’ve had over 16 inches of rain since the beginning of November. I’d trade snow for an immediate torch and dry weather if given the opportunity.

My god I miss living in the mountains