BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Very similar to the NAM -
It’d be absolutely hilarious for the GFS and Euro to come in with big hits
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I’m desperately in need of some happy hour fun! (I’m talking about drinking by the way)
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@GaWx do you recall how the RGEM performed with Sunday’s setup? I vaguely remember it doing well.
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There’s a non zero chance folks in NC can stop tracking by 0Z
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Yep. I’ll admit I’m taking this one harder than normal because it’s likely our last crack at anything. It’ll be cold this month but we lose our -NAO and we all know how key that is. We score Friday or it’s likely on to 25/26 winter.
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This is all I got for eye candy. .
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Yea we’re cooked lol. I’ve seen enough. It was at least fun to track with everybody. It felt like old times. After this whiff, I’m ready for summer. I’ll be pulling for an egregious SER in Feb personally. Pull the bandaid off and enjoy fishing and getting outside.
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I’m not having fun anymore
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This thing is trending earlier and earlier
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Very moist run, very poor thermals
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Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.
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This storm is setting up to absolutely break some hearts in the mid south
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Less positive tilt more neutral
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Well let’s see if the bleeding has stopped at all. NAM is more moist this run.
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This is probably more coping than anything but here is our bright side in our “this sucks” moment: - Short term guidance is juicier than globals. - still 48 hrs out from the event. - the difference between a little and a lot is a tiny tiny tweak to some of the upper level interactions. - models might not be underestimating the big picture but I do think they’re underestimating lift and upslope potential.
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Depressing
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The GRAF fired the warning shot last night before the 0Z data came in.
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I can’t speak for everyone but I just find the whole situation hilarious for western NC. It’s painfully ironic that we’ve had as much rain and moisture as we’ve had these past few months and THIS system is going to be the one to buck the trend. There’s my whining for the day. Carry on. Congrats to Texas to Tenn for the 600+ time in 3 years.
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GRAF is absolute nightmare fuel. Doesn’t even have a shield of precip - just loosely organized snow showers.
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Looking at the sounding, I think it’s a product of lighter rates. Not enough moisture at that point in the snow growth zone. Says snow/sleet but the sounding over me is freezing drizzle. Personally, I love that track. Someone is going to get a death band from this thing. It’s shown up in several models. Hard to say where it settles, but that stretch from Hendersonville to Shelby is looking good.
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@calculus1we can top this. These folks have never seen the hotels on Hwy 70 in the snow. Magical stuff. We could even show them where the Spirit Halloween pops up once a year.
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We’ll avoid the Lee side min if it’s even slightly amped. If the Euro is right…then we are screwed.
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Curious to see what side caves tonight/tomorrow. Euro & Uk vs Everything else
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Broader scale is it’s amped way too early in the run where it has better accuracy.
