BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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This is about to make a lot of people happy
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HP parked exactly where we want it
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Snow breaking out in GA at hr 96
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This is going to be an intriguing run
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This GFS run looks more like 18z yesterday
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Biggest thing I gathered from that run is the HP position. Would be really nice to have a 1031 over the Ohio Valley.
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Euro AI is now on run #6 of showing the near same result. Would be a nice storm for many.
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Those were ugly runs no doubt, but it’s all noise at this point. I can’t recall a time tracking weather where I’ve seen individual pieces to a storm oscillate a thousand miles on the exact same model just 6 hrs between runs and proceed to wash, rinse and repeat every single run. We are nowhere close to the final solution - hell, we don’t even had an agreement within model suites to help us look for trends toward/away others. This is going to be a marathon, drink your Gatorade and eat your wheaties.
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I’m not the slightest bit concerned this morning. We’re still seeing thousand mile swings between runs with the individual pieces of energy.
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Man I really hoped we’d be exiting windshield wiper territory at this point. Every single run is wildly different.
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Strung out weak mess
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Went back and looked under the hood at the big 18z gfs run. We would have faired a lot better in reality. In the deformation zone, it shows frz rain on the map but the sounding was very clearly snow.
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Down to 32.5/28.
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33.8/27.0, wet bulb of 31.3. Let’s see what happens here.
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Could be. It’ll be interesting to look back and see if it was the first to sniff the correct end game or first to miss. I don’t think we have a trend in any direction yet, but I do think there are more depictions closer to its solution as of recent runs.
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Euro AI and GFS look similar but hard to tell much since we don’t have many detailed Euro AI maps. This is the FOURTH run in a row that the Euro AI is producing almost the exact same look with little to no change.
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WOOF WOOF .
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The Op does not have support from the GEFS for what it’s worth. GEFS was a very nice look for most.
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GFS was close to glory
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That was realllllly close to an absolute weenie run
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Every single short range model is initializing temps several degrees too high. This could get interesting. That initial band of precip locked us in way lower than anticipated.
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Alright, I don’t disagree. Thread after 12z tomorrow if it’s still there? We’ll have landfall of our wave overnight tonight.
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Yea it might be time for a thread for Friday/Saturday.
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On another note. Mildly intrigued by later this evening. My DP has plummeted to 23 with a temp of 34.
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Meanwhile - I just FaceTimed family in Mount Airy. Absolutely sickening. 3.5” confirmed. There’s surprises and then there’s surprises like that. Completely unexpected.
