BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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What’s most encouraging about 12z so far is that both pieces of energy are on land + we’re in the range where OPs should start to be more useful than ensembles and they’re all trending wintry. -
Folded like a dirty dishrag
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Big GFS run
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GSP: Confirmed weenies The most likely locations to see significant wintry weather will be along/north of the I-85 corridor, but to repeat: some wintry weather is likely in all areas, and significant accums can`t be ruled out anywhere.
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Regardless of how it progresses, I’m encouraged that every model is showing an absolute thumping at the onset. Jan 2022 had the same feature and it put down 7 inches in Burke County before we switched to a wintry mix.
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Definitely so, but we did gain a bit more positive tilt and the energy interaction early on was a bit more favorable. Hopefully the GEFS mean is closer to the coast. Goodnight all!
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Inland track but small improvements in the upper levels earlier on. We ride.
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Northern stream energy where we’d want it
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ICONic
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In their defense - after Helene, most utilities now have a backlog of 6+ months of work orders and issues to fix.
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WOOOOF .
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We lost some good posters to SouthernWX. Good commentary over there but man that platform is clunky compared to this. Also too broad. We have micro climates broken down that I like to dip into conversations for.
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We know this is you @uncCheatProgrammer
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Thumbing through the LP tracks on the ensembles and for most, you really couldn’t draw up a better track for us locally. I don’t want to jump ahead of myself but ****typically*** those lows at the strength they depict, is a western NC classic that usually dumps 4-8” with maybe some sleet mixed in. I’m cautiously optimistic. Edit: and if that GFS OP matched more of its ensemble members, I think we would’ve had quite the clown map.
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Ratios in our area would also be better than 10:1
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I WAS MOCKED
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3 inches of snow, prob an inch of sleet followed by a 1/4” of ice. Ice rink.
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Happy hour!
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My goodness the CAD
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Also follows the footprint of most SE winter weather events.
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HOLY ICON RUN
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I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts?
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The footprint has improved greatly, as have the totals for the mid south. Gotta hope the latter will happen further east soon.
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Obviously not a super detailed depiction but you can see the precip and eventual low track (heads towards Cape Lookout and then OTS around the mouth of the Chesapeake). .
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12z Euro AI makes it 7 runs with little to no changes. Big Miller A.
