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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    Well, after 24 hrs of negative trends, the short range models finally realize that CAD exists!
  2. BooneWX
    It was an absolute death band. Near 2 inch per hour rates for a bit.
  3. BooneWX
    HRRR with 1-2 inch per hr rates in the morning
  4. BooneWX
    Lol my projection an hour ago is now my “1 in 10” chance.
  5. BooneWX
    Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs?
  6. BooneWX
    Pumped they started a thread for Friday’s threat so the whining will dry up in the main storm thread.
  7. BooneWX
    It was looking so good until the low suddenly went poleward 150 miles in an hour.
  8. BooneWX
    Here comes the CAD
  9. BooneWX
    I know it’s strong but color me shocked if a low in Charleston produces sleet and freezing rain all the way to the mountains.
  10. BooneWX
    Has to be resolving the system incorrectly. The isobars suggest it’s still in middle Georgia on that frame.
  11. BooneWX
    That back end band is going to thump some folks
  12. BooneWX
    Weird. The low pressure position is significantly better but it shows worse results
  13. BooneWX
    We didn’t discuss it much but the 06z GFS didn’t blink. It’s been telling the same story for 8+ runs now.
  14. BooneWX
    Yea I’m still not buying it but that’s more of a gut feeling than anything. I mean at Hr 32, it’s a 996 low in Banner Elk with zero signs of coastal transfer.
  15. BooneWX
    I’m no expert but looking at some of the “sleet” soundings, it sure seems like it’d still be a Snow/Sleet mix. The warm nose is there but not egregiously in our area. I imagine it’d be snowing fatties and mixing with a bit of sleet.
  16. BooneWX
    If this track shown on the short range models unfolds, have we seen anything like it?? I truly can’t recall anything remotely similar.
  17. BooneWX
    HRRR is a hell of a front end thump, that’s for sure
  18. BooneWX
    26 imby with thick clouds rolling in. Not that it’s going to matter a ton, but hopefully we can cap off any heating by the sun and stay locked in the 30s.
  19. BooneWX
    GFS PASTE BOMB. See y’all in the morning.
  20. BooneWX
    Plenty of time indeed. I’ve got a weird feeling about the short range models. If the gfs holds serve, I think we’ll see the short range get a clue tomorrow but time will tell.
  21. BooneWX
    Anybody got the clown? Mine is stuck at hr 28 for the snowfall
  22. BooneWX
    That comma on the backside means BUSINESS
  23. BooneWX
    Don’t let any model run distract you from the fact that we were golfing and fishing 2 weeks ago. Just enjoy the moment.
  24. BooneWX
    I’ve lived in the foothills a vast majority of my life and the rule of thumb I’ve always had in most of these setups is that sleet overperforms and saves the day during a transition. Let’s hope that rule of thumb continues but I definitely think my area spends more time as snow, snow/sleet than much else. The warm nose is prevalent on the sounding but it’s not honking at Zr.
  25. BooneWX
    The trend with Zr in the Euro is highly concerning. Gives me 7 inches of wet snow and over a half an inch of ice. Cut that in half and it’s still lights out.
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