BooneWX

Happy hour GFS

Almost 1/3 odds now for Hickory to net more than 6 inches. We are going to riot soon @calculus1

Feels like it’s been so long since we’ve had anything worth tuning into. It’s like old times

so appetizer followed by dinner? Don’t mind if I do

A 3” mean near Atlanta is just absolutely wild. Still less wild than there being a mean for central Florida.

Euro Ens mean snowfall for Hickory: 4.5”. I haven’t seen this in a long time.

That 50/50 low is going to help put CAD regions in the freezer. The EPS mean is absolutely absurd. 70-80% odds for 1” or greater in most of Nc.

Timeline wise, we really shouldn’t be looking for a threat. It’s the 28th and we know that anything before the 7th/8th is a wash. We’re 10+ days out from anything coming to fruition. It’s all pattern recognition for now but I’ve got a good feeling the Op runs will start looking more interesting somewhere in that Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe.

It’s still loading for me but this is shaping up to be a nice EPS run. Quite the Miller A signature.

At this pace, it’ll be snowing in Puerto Rico by 0Z. I’m getting concerned about the extent of the cold. There’s too much of a good thing and what the models are showing is not only pipe bursting cold but the type of cold that causes widespread grid control issues.

Ensembles look great. I think we get some absolute weenie runs early in the week.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1872793416394031246?s=46

I’ll take panel 38 or 40 and log out until Dec 2025

I think a lot of you are going to see some insane totals the next few weeks.

I’m going to keep grasping at straws. Snow is my favorite weather type and I’m going to show every weenie run those glorious models produce. We’ll return to regularly scheduled severe weather, 70 dew point programming in Feb/March.

Came here for a dose of optimism that I can’t find on the Southeast forum and it delivered. The Euro Ens shows a very nice tick west with the trough axis. It’s no longer in New England and now sits over the lakes and Ohio Valley. That’s right where both forums are going to want it. Let’s hope it’s right! I think the models are starting to adjust to the ridging over the Atlantic.

Euro Ens mean for the trough at 12z is right where we want it, centered over the Ohio Valley. If we can keep it there, we will have our shots.

And what an epic event it was. Lived in Mt Airy at the time and got caught under that ULL death band at the end of the storm. Hit almost 20 inches. Still the biggest storm I’ve ever seen but 2018 came close.

Saw this morning that our trough axis ticked westward on most ensemble guidance overnight. I hate to sound dramatic but if we don’t get that worked out, we can kick the can till next year. I’m as optimistic as possible but we either score before the 20th or it’s game over. Enso is going to eventually play a role and I noticed that the MJO looks to head into high amplitude 3 and possibly 4 after our magical 8-1-2 run. February has been tough around here and I find it hard to believe winter stays in the east through that time period.

You have to pay the severe weather tax anytime ahead of a cold period

That was a fun night on this forum. My day time temp hit the low 50s and we crashed to 31 under dynamic cooling. Had around 4 inches of paste living in Burke County at that time. Edit: I’ve got the wrong storm. I’m thinking Feb 6, 2021. Upstate and western Nc got nailed that evening.

Back in the good ol days where you could count on at least 2-3 events per year minimum in the foothills

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned in the foothills thread that 1/30 clippers equates to snow in the foothills and this was the exact storm I had in mind. Thank you for finding it!

The first wave is definitely going to be OTS but that second wave will be worth watching

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1872313028605317276?s=46 this is borderline bullish for him