BooneWX

The differences over these past 3 model cycles are much more subtle than the surface depictions would lead you to believe. Small nuances in where individual pieces of energy come ashore out west, drop in, link up, etc etc. But what’s been absolutely consistent through the shifts: a. Significant and prolonged cold weather is coming and the upper air charts have made little to no changes b. Plenty of energy I still think something shakes out in our favor, I really do. I’ve also got a feeling we’re entering a territory where we could get into the 3-4 day window before we start to reel one in. On the 6th: likely a cutter. Anything more would be gravy but I’m not sure it’s a bad thing since it would take a heavy turnaround to make it a fun storm for all. If it cuts, it lays down a nice blanket of snow just to our north. The models have moderated slightly today because less snow further north = modified air. Our future pieces of energy only stand to benefit from that first low cutting.

The euro just really strings out the energy in the Baja

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https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1873732680816177436?s=46 fwiw

A Miller B is absolutely on the table and IF the first storm is wintry, ice is the likelihood given the setup

6z gfs somehow didn’t break the internet

That Icon run was about to smoke some folks

A wholesome channel in a sea of bad content today. We love it at our house.

Better yet, WHO does it affect? And then I remembered an Outdoor Boys video where Luke camped in -50 degree temps so maybe it’s just issued for him.

Taking a deeper dive into the Jan 6/7th storm. For us, this screams icing potential with a front end thump of Snow/Sleet. Damming high building into southern Ontario and a cutter. I think it’s this storm that *could set us up better a few days later. As it cuts, it dislodges frigid air into our region.

Good run for the Euro AI

Unfortunately, many are still in tents. I’m worried about them as well. This region is hurting tremendously both physically and economically.

We start the step down Wednesday and it’s a progressive slide from there with each front being a bit more stout than the one before it. How long? That’s a great question but most ensembles have us in a freezer into week 2. Week 3 of Jan is just too far out to definitively say but right now it’s trending cold as well.

Cold to that degree is worrisome, so you’re not alone. Heating demand will be immense and the extent of the cold prevents utilities from being able to allocate generation resources across the east coast.

While attention is rightfully on the snow chances, here are my thoughts on the temps at 12z .

Been a very long time that we’ve had all 3 major global models show winter wx solutions on an event a week out.

Woof .

That was a nasty line. Severe weather tax paid! Now give me my snow.

Back off of what? You literally can’t dial up a better looking upper level pattern for the south east than what’s been depicted overnight. I’m so damn confused as to what people expect/want right now with it being the 29th and the first stages of a pattern change still being days away. I haven’t had snow in a climatologically favored region in almost 1,100 days. We all want snow, no shit. Why does every other post in this thread have to be some “it’ll never snow in my backyard ever again” shtick. We’ve got a thread for this. Hell, I made it myself! edit: and before someone says it - no you’re absolutely allowed to say and think it wont but for the love of god, back it up with reasoning other than you’re sad that it hasn’t snowed lately.

Well that was quite the weenie run to wake up to

The type of entertainment SouthernWX could never deliver on

LAWD .

Happy hour GFS

Almost 1/3 odds now for Hickory to net more than 6 inches. We are going to riot soon @calculus1

Feels like it’s been so long since we’ve had anything worth tuning into. It’s like old times