BooneWX

Amen. We’ve earned the snow this year probably more than any other place in the country. Happy new years!

Most are here to learn so sharing your expertise is always welcomed.

Pull up the 500 mb vort map and compare to 12z. The wave kicks east but just missed the phase.

Big improvements on the next wave. Almost there.

18z GFS is a CAD special slop fest

Went north a hair at 18z but the high is also in a slightly better position

CAD special

INCOMING!!!!!

No major changes through 108 hrs

Im not as concerned about the storms or the energy and how it resolves, I’m mildly concerned about the trough axis and how our -NAO sets up. Now, I say mildly. Really the 12z suite is the first ensemble runs that give me pause but with it being ensembles and not operational runs, my interest is peaked. It’s probably just years of being burnt kicking in but I do think the atmosphere tends to get in a repetitive state and could trend towards a look that’s completely northern stream dominant with a trough axis too far east to slow down these waves (early this month). On the flip, the extreme cold has backed off today. It still looks well below average and that’s good. The pipe bursting cold shown over the last few days was never good. Nobody wants lows tracking through Cuba. edit: I should add that this doesn’t apply to all ensembles across the board. The GEFS shows exactly what we’d want and to lend it credit, it has been consistent.

Panel 3 and we can start spreading pre emergent

I hope this isn’t a trend but the Euro Ens was much further east with our trough axis mid month. Resembled early Dec more than anything.

Also, this is where the experts stand on the Jan 6th storm

This. I sort of think it’s a win either way. I never want to pass up a winter weather opportunity but if we end up just risking sleet and freezing rain, I’ll happily pass because it sets the stage all the better for everyone on waves 2 and 3.

That high over the Bahamas would be a major stick in the mud even with a good track

That’s fine for now

Yea I worry this is the most likely solution and middle ground between the models. There is a lot of vegetation hanging on by a thread in WNC that didn’t go down completely during Helene. An ice storm would be much more impactful than normal for the region.

The 12z GFS is weather porn but as of right now it’s on its own island so I’m struggling to believe it. I still think the most likely solution is a cutter with a brief CAD event but of course I’d love to be wrong.

The cad showing up on the 6z gfs is very stout. HKY doesn’t get above 28 for the duration of the event. Does anybody have the sleet map by chance? I saw little Frz rain so I figured that is a sleet fest.

Icon would’ve been interesting to see past 180 hrs. Another drop in the bucket of solid trends.

Euro AI has the wave dropping in stronger and at a lower latitude. also. This blocking. Holllly smokes.

Gonna riot if it’s a dusting.

Solid improvements at 18z across the board. -NAO doing some dirty work for us.

Before anyone jumps ship - the 18z GFS has features a thousand miles apart (literally) from the 12z run.

This is a good thing.