BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Way too early to be worrying about whether or not this thing is over amped. Models are still struggling to have the storm at all and all ensemble support that it does have isn’t amped in the slightest. Really, all we have to support an amped storm at this time frame is the Euro AI and like 2 GFS runs.
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Looking at Sunday night, I’m just not seeing it. This could’ve been a decent event snow/sleet wise if the high was situated over Iowa or just west of the lakes. The weak high north of the Bahamas will aide in waa. Can’t see this being anything worse than 34 and rain south of the Virginia line.
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Euro AI is almost identical to 0z. Classic Miller A bomb.
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Good hit and it really was loaded to become a lot more. Our ride continues.
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Sweet Jesus
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This is going to be an amped run for the GFS
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A thing of beauty .
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We’ll know early on the runs at 0Z if we’re on the right path or not. I wouldn’t fret what the surface depiction is. Our trough at 12z was pointed towards Montana and in the 18z runs, it’s climbing towards Seattle. That subtle shift kept the energy from going SW and let it get picked up by our trough.
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Euro AI is not only a storm, it’s a monster Miller A.
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EPS looks like it wants to eject our low from its vacation in Cabo
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One of the big differences with this run is the ridge out west. It’s rising towards Alaska now, not tilting as hard towards the Rockies.
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Big snowstorm for NC, big ice storm for SC. It’s one OP run but man did that feel good to look at.
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HAPPY HOUR
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WE ARE SO BACK
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Sticking to their guns
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That ridge orientation is just not going to do the trick. It’s fine that it’s close to the Rockies but it can’t be oriented like that. We really need it to tilt more vertically. I would assume it’s the pacific jet tilting it but someone more intelligent would have to confirm. .
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DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown
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I’ve been as optimistic as ever the past few weeks, so don’t take this a doomcasting, but Feb is absolutely cooked. I don’t buy any cold for the month outside of transient 2-3 day shots. We’re likely going to traverse the warmest phases of the MJO, and eventually enso is going to knock on our door. La Niña February’s mean a visit from our good friend, the SER. If we don’t score the next 2-3 weeks, you might as well get the mower tuned up because an early spring is coming.
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Lmao, best I can get is a Murphy to Manteo tornado threat.
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Idk fellas. Idk. It’s certainly not like it used to be.
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Salt in the wound is Sunday trending towards a severe weather event. Hilarious to live here truly. The only thing we can count on is scorching heat and a cold Memorial Day.
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.
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No, nobody was. Not a single expert has been bullish on that timeframe for us, just us weenies. Making that work was going to be hard and would really sacrifice the pattern to get more involved anyways. This storm lays out the plates, silverware and glasses - just not the food.
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EPS shows the signal. A bit of suppression but the average output is a southern slider but perhaps a full on Miller A. I can see it trending northwest a bit with time but I sort of feel like the “up the east coast” threat is waning a bit for New England weenies.
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A proper snowpack right where we need to transport the Polar Express. .
