BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Euro AI is not only a storm, it’s a monster Miller A.
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EPS looks like it wants to eject our low from its vacation in Cabo
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One of the big differences with this run is the ridge out west. It’s rising towards Alaska now, not tilting as hard towards the Rockies.
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Big snowstorm for NC, big ice storm for SC. It’s one OP run but man did that feel good to look at.
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HAPPY HOUR
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WE ARE SO BACK
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Sticking to their guns
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That ridge orientation is just not going to do the trick. It’s fine that it’s close to the Rockies but it can’t be oriented like that. We really need it to tilt more vertically. I would assume it’s the pacific jet tilting it but someone more intelligent would have to confirm. .
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DC weenies are going to have an absolute meltdown
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I’ve been as optimistic as ever the past few weeks, so don’t take this a doomcasting, but Feb is absolutely cooked. I don’t buy any cold for the month outside of transient 2-3 day shots. We’re likely going to traverse the warmest phases of the MJO, and eventually enso is going to knock on our door. La Niña February’s mean a visit from our good friend, the SER. If we don’t score the next 2-3 weeks, you might as well get the mower tuned up because an early spring is coming.
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Lmao, best I can get is a Murphy to Manteo tornado threat.
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Idk fellas. Idk. It’s certainly not like it used to be.
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Salt in the wound is Sunday trending towards a severe weather event. Hilarious to live here truly. The only thing we can count on is scorching heat and a cold Memorial Day.
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No, nobody was. Not a single expert has been bullish on that timeframe for us, just us weenies. Making that work was going to be hard and would really sacrifice the pattern to get more involved anyways. This storm lays out the plates, silverware and glasses - just not the food.
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EPS shows the signal. A bit of suppression but the average output is a southern slider but perhaps a full on Miller A. I can see it trending northwest a bit with time but I sort of feel like the “up the east coast” threat is waning a bit for New England weenies.
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A proper snowpack right where we need to transport the Polar Express. .
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I think we’re at a crossroads until that first system passes. Just my thoughts. Tuesday will give us a lot of answers good or bad.
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It’s the ride we’re all addicted to and enjoy. And enjoy it! We’ve had nothing worth tracking for years.
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Ratios for that setup would also be high for the upstate and western Carolinas. Probably more of a 4-6” event taken at face value
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I like where we’re sitting. This first storm is just going to be a sacrificial lamb. 12gfs was a good look and that precip field would likely be more expansive verbatim with a sub 1000 mb low off of Charleston. Let’s ride.
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This is the potential the pattern has. First low sacrificed, beautiful 50/50 low ensues and we get a strike underneath.
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On the bright side, this can help our energy for the 9th-11th.
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My thought: I truly think our models suck. I mean, bottom barrel garbage, useless trash 90% of the time. A product of poor funding and nobody outside of the weather community seeing the need for improvements these past several years. It won’t shock me at all if we can’t even sniff a big dog in advance on the models anymore (prob likely tbh) and it equally won’t shock me when and if we get closer to a threat that they all jump on board 72 hrs out. .
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First storm is a wash other than some onset ice in CAD regions. I think we all knew it would arrive there eventually - it looked like a miller b from the start. Tough to make those setups work at the front end of the pattern without an anchoring high to the north. I remain as optimistic as ever about the 8th-12th period. I don’t see any reason to change course on that. Clear signal, just no clear answers, which is fine at a week+.
