BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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I’m getting Jan 2022 vibes. I think the setup is very different in the upper levels but the surface depiction feels similar.
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We are in the best position as of 9 am that we’ve been at any point tracking this system
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Interestingly, it’s ensembles don’t support a Miller B at all.
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Very good hit by the GFS
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This is a major positive step. Major!
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Euro AI at 18z is almost exactly the same as its 12z run. 4-6” region wide and a damn near perfect position for the low. I know we don’t have a long track record with it, but several Mets speak highly of it and it performed well for tomorrow’s storm. It’s had the most consistency we’ve seen so far even though that’s not saying much.
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I may have to move here permanently for the remaining analysis because what will still work for us won’t work for many and I’m not reading through the whining.
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Sorry, should’ve added more context. Most show a less amped system and a true southern slider.
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Looking at the individual GEfS members. Few - none agree with the OP.
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GEFS panels for 18z looked very good tbh
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GFS is a Miller B slop fest
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Euro AI is a major hit across the south, especially Tenn, NC and the upstate
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12z has been bad for us almost every day of this week only for 18z and 0z to pull us back. See everyone in a few hours!
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Panel 32 is one of the most equitable winter storm depictions I’ve ever seen in the south lol
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The Canadian is the solution we want imo on a large scale. I know it didn’t deliver the goods on the surface depiction but it’s about as damn perfect of a look as you could ask for at day 6/7
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I’ve loved how crazy optimistic he’s been the past few days when he’s usually one of the first Mets raining on the weenie parade. It does make me feel positive.
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The Canadian is one of the best looks in days. A southern slider with weak HP over the Ohio Valley.
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I don’t disagree, I was just addressing the larger pattern question at hand. We can’t get snow because a ridge is pumping into the lakes ahead of our storm and finding a high pressure anywhere between Iowa and New England is like the Charlotte Horners finding the playoffs.
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Also - to the where is the cold question: Our TPV lobe gets punched back home by guess what? The Pacific.
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Our 50/50 low looked better this run but we can’t have it trending east. Re: tomorrow’s storm clears up a lot, good or bad.
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I’m going to go out on a controversial limb here and say that so far this meteorological winter has exceeded my expectations, so if it turns warm down the stretch, so be it. My assumption with La Niña back in early Nov was that we’d experience widespread SER problems and have a litter of days in the 60s and 70s. Dec was seasonal to below average and January is shaping up to be the same. I hope we score next week because in hindsight, it’ll feel like a coup to me.
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The fly in the ointment is this first system. I think we may see some wild swings after tomorrow with our 2nd system. Our cold air that follows system 1 is highly impactful on the end result of system 2.
