Yep and I won’t give up hope until it’s onshore. We still have a lot to work out in the coming days and no doubt, 18z will show something wildly different. We’re still very much in windshield wiper territory.
Storm aside, it really is wild to see how much the pattern advertised has devolved into such a mess. Cold, sure, but just slightly below average January cold. That’s not enough anymore outside of the mountains.
Great Lakes low. Would it kill us to ever see a high up north? What’s nuts is how easy it is to get CAD in theory. Quite literally any moderately decent high from Iowa to New England could get us across the finish line.
Weird a** depiction this go around. I won’t completely discount it but until we see ensembles with a storm that far north and amped, I’m having a hard time buying it. We’re not quite in the range where OPs should take preference.
Vintage winter day for you guys that I miss so much. Snow squalls followed by howling winds and tumbling temps. Should be a nice night by the fire. Someone have a bourbon on the rocks for me.
Way too early to be worrying about whether or not this thing is over amped. Models are still struggling to have the storm at all and all ensemble support that it does have isn’t amped in the slightest. Really, all we have to support an amped storm at this time frame is the Euro AI and like 2 GFS runs.
Looking at Sunday night, I’m just not seeing it. This could’ve been a decent event snow/sleet wise if the high was situated over Iowa or just west of the lakes. The weak high north of the Bahamas will aide in waa. Can’t see this being anything worse than 34 and rain south of the Virginia line.
We’ll know early on the runs at 0Z if we’re on the right path or not. I wouldn’t fret what the surface depiction is. Our trough at 12z was pointed towards Montana and in the 18z runs, it’s climbing towards Seattle. That subtle shift kept the energy from going SW and let it get picked up by our trough.