BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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We lost some good posters to SouthernWX. Good commentary over there but man that platform is clunky compared to this. Also too broad. We have micro climates broken down that I like to dip into conversations for. -
We know this is you @uncCheatProgrammer
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Thumbing through the LP tracks on the ensembles and for most, you really couldn’t draw up a better track for us locally. I don’t want to jump ahead of myself but ****typically*** those lows at the strength they depict, is a western NC classic that usually dumps 4-8” with maybe some sleet mixed in. I’m cautiously optimistic. Edit: and if that GFS OP matched more of its ensemble members, I think we would’ve had quite the clown map.
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Ratios in our area would also be better than 10:1
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I WAS MOCKED
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3 inches of snow, prob an inch of sleet followed by a 1/4” of ice. Ice rink.
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Happy hour!
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My goodness the CAD
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Also follows the footprint of most SE winter weather events.
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HOLY ICON RUN
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I wonder why it pulsates between likely snow and likely rain over western NC. Intentional to share mixed thoughts?
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The footprint has improved greatly, as have the totals for the mid south. Gotta hope the latter will happen further east soon.
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Obviously not a super detailed depiction but you can see the precip and eventual low track (heads towards Cape Lookout and then OTS around the mouth of the Chesapeake). .
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12z Euro AI makes it 7 runs with little to no changes. Big Miller A.
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I know everybody was patiently awaiting the JMA but to my point - it was a major snowstorm above I85.
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With all of the major hits in some of the ensemble panels, I think we’re eventually going to get an op run that follows suit and nearly crashes this board.
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Half of the CMC ensembles have big dog potential too.
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Fwiw, the GEFS panels have about 13/30 showing a big dog for us. We’re not dead yet.
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Average GEFS low track: Just offshore Louisiana, south of Destin to Brunswick GA to Cape Lookout
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GEFS trending towards a stronger storm and more moisture
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If the Canadian solution is my main option, I’m fine with that. I’ll take a cold rain and the power being on.
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Yea if I see any trend, it’s that we’re moving away from a snow threat and to an ice threat. Don’t be so quick to discount Frz Rain totals. For many areas, the precip is light and falling into air that’s 25-28°. It’ll freeze much more efficiently than normal.
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And yes, for anyone wondering, it bombs as it pulls away and gives the goods to the MA and new england
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Anybody got the sleet totals map?
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Still a sheered out mess but an improvement
