BooneWX

The HRRR is initializing temps 4-5 degrees too high atm. Not sure that really matters because we’re talking about mid level warmth but obviously makes me cautious of over valuing warmer depictions.

Amazing how these models know exactly where 85 is

27/14…. Patiently awaiting my order of southern sliders

Sunday’s event outperformed in precip when compared to the models as well. I remember this being discussed in the MA threads.

GSP increases totals as well

HRRR was first to the uptrend in 2022. It absolutely nailed the storm.

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Warnings hoisted

Kuchera was even better

Just hang on until tomorrow when we’ve had 6 hrs of returns and the air isn’t fully saturated

Looks like we took a step back this run. On the wide view I saw a few min ago, there is a ton of gulf convection that robs moisture transport.

The NAM is not currently verifying in Texas. Worth mentioning…

If we can stay all/mostly snow, we really have a chance to overperform.

Almost lunchtime and it’s still 29 at my house

Whatever falls is going to become concrete if we get some sleet. I’ll be shocked if we verify in the upper 30s Saturday but maybe under full sun.

The NAM definitely seems like the worst case scenario right now but even then, I get an inch of snow and about 2 inches of sleet. Those are elite sledding conditions.

Legacy storm for the Euro AI too.

Man this morning feels like the 24 hrs leading up to the 2022 storm. I remember the fine folks at GSP trending down on totals only to have to hit reverse quickly at the last minute after miserable overnight data. HRRR led the way on that storm and I ended up with 7”.

I’m riding whichever models tell me what I want to hear, so for now, put me in the RAP, RGEM camp. This is subject to change in like 3 hrs.

American WX (after dark)

One thing that’s been remarkable about the GFS is how much the OP has bucked its own ensembles. Even tonight back at 18z, the OP is just south of Macon GA (60 hrs) while almost all GEFS members are just west of Savannah.

.

Here’s the thing on the NAM. There’s absolutely nothing preventing this from cutting. We have no blocking high to the north to tuck it underneath. It amplifies the storm, spits out a stout ridge and WAA pushes our fragile cold dome out of the way. It finds the weakness and lifts. I’m not saying it’s right, but characterizing it as out to lunch when WAA has been an issue for days is something I wouldn’t advise. I agree it’s not likely but that’s how it arrived where it did. One of my rules I’ve always had living in the Lee - NEVER trust an in-situ wedge.

Toss the NAM at your own risk

Well that’s certainly one way to get more moisture here

Well now I won’t share with the class