BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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While the surface depiction was excellent, we need to hope the nam is done trending so amped. There’s a fine line and we’re starting to cross it in the mid levels. Much of that snow had sleet/frz rain soundings, even in the mountains. -
Goodness gracious
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.
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And I know this won’t make many feel better but Sunday’s storm in the MA jumped north at this lead time, only to settle further south.
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The pattern certainly seems to be trending back to cold. If so, opportunities will await.
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It’s outperformed the GFS and standard Euro in testing
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12z Euro AI: pretty much the exact same thing it’s been showing for a million runs now
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EPS: juicer, improved. But, a tick north for those on the edge.
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For my fellow NC folks, I’ve got a funny feeling that the Euro will catch on and deliver a more impactful event either at 18 or 0Z. Watch the QPF trend over the past few runs. It’s roughly the same for NC but much heavier amounts keep creeping closer from the southwest.
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So far at 12Z: Icon: Improved GFS: Improved GEFS: Improved Canadian: Same Ukie: Worse Euro: Roughly the Same EPS: TBD Euro AI: TBD
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Euro sort of sticking to its guns on a weaker more strung out wave. Slightly warmer this run too. Widespread 2-4” in NC.
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For what it’s worth, it’s the only model than nailed Sunday in northern NC!
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Of the GFS ensembles, 14/20 are big dogs for the foothills.
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Canadian drives the low further north and lays down a big ice storm.
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What’s most encouraging about 12z so far is that both pieces of energy are on land + we’re in the range where OPs should start to be more useful than ensembles and they’re all trending wintry.
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Folded like a dirty dishrag
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Big GFS run
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GSP: Confirmed weenies The most likely locations to see significant wintry weather will be along/north of the I-85 corridor, but to repeat: some wintry weather is likely in all areas, and significant accums can`t be ruled out anywhere.
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Regardless of how it progresses, I’m encouraged that every model is showing an absolute thumping at the onset. Jan 2022 had the same feature and it put down 7 inches in Burke County before we switched to a wintry mix.
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Definitely so, but we did gain a bit more positive tilt and the energy interaction early on was a bit more favorable. Hopefully the GEFS mean is closer to the coast. Goodnight all!
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Inland track but small improvements in the upper levels earlier on. We ride.
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Northern stream energy where we’d want it
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ICONic
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In their defense - after Helene, most utilities now have a backlog of 6+ months of work orders and issues to fix.
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WOOOOF .
