BooneWX

I like where we’re at. I’d be more frantic had we not received some snow on Friday but the pattern looks good and I’m not buying the Barney temps for one second. I’ve seen that outlook before and we nearly missed a storm entirely due to warm temps. I’ve seen others point this out and it’s true, the pattern resembles some of the looks we saw in the 2013/14 winter and we had an absolute big dog near Valentine’s in 2014.

That’s a hell of a signal at this range.

Most of the snow survived the day. Idk if it makes it tomorrow but 3 days with snow cover feels like such a steal when it was only a few inches

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I knew this place would come back to life when the pacific jet decided to go touch grass at some point in its existence

A Sam’s club trip is in order tomorrow .

Never leaving this forum

Happy hour GFS run coming for E Nc

*John Bobs Exteme.Weather.Net.Storm Tracker Facebook Network* ”EXTREME STORM coming to the southeast in a week. Do with this information what you please but preparations for an apocalyptic snow event followed by the worst cold in American history need to be made.” *500k likes/200k shares*

Lmao. I hadn’t checked this thread in a few hours, saw 44 unread messages and immediately knew something dropped off a board wide Dec 2018. Confirmed. What a weenie run.

Anybody getting dejavu? The ridge out west seems much more cooperative at this range. Notice how it’s going polar instead of getting tilted towards the Rockies and Alberta. Overrunning from a weak low along the frontal boundary is probably the likelihood but I would not rule out a phased bomb. It almost pulls it off later in the run but the northern stream doesn’t link up. .

You’re spot on. Below average for them but not record breaking.

You can’t ask for much more at the 500mb level.

It happened but it wasn’t a major or even moderate event. Back in late Dec when the models were showing those absurdly cold temps at this date, the TPV lobe that broke off was modeled to be just south of Hudson Bay. Unfortunately - (or fortunately), the Pacific jet gave the lobe a punch that sent it back north.

Soon…(maybe) .

And according to Eric Webb, the airmass is starting at a balmy -40C as it exits Siberia

17 for a low and we may have something to track again this week

Man there’s just something about looking out the window at night with snow on the ground. It’s bright as day, tall pines casting long shadows, fire roaring.

The overrunning signal late next weekend is clear as day. We’re about to spend a week gnashing teeth on where that cold front stalls.

Just an absolutely beautiful day. It’s been so long. Little bit of melting but still plenty of spots to take my daughter sledding in the morning. Manifesting a December 2018 event. It only feels right given how cold it’s been. .

The pattern is definitely supportive but I’m taking things with a major grain of salt unless I see a 1035+ HP in the correct region. I think this pattern will favor highs in the Rockies but TBD if anything further east can pop.

In the good ole days of southern weather, yesterday was an appetizer and not the meal. Let’s see what magic we can conjure up the next 15 days. I really still want one good overrunning event with blue on the radar from Mississippi to Virginia.

Beautiful property! I hope you’re feeling better

-EPO + Phase 1 & 2. Probably all we can ask for atm.

Idk what everyone took away from this storm, but I know one thing - going forward, I’ll take the NAM suite over all other short range guidance. It was on an island of its own and absolutely nailed it from 48 hrs out. My line of thinking in future storms (sub 2 days out) will be to put 90% of my stock and expectations in the NAM solution and about 10% in things like the HRRR or FV3. The RGEM performed greatly with last weekends storm and performed horrendously with this one. Idk what to do with it yet but we’ll put it on house arrest for the time being. other things we learned: - No arctic high? Keep expectations in check. - the EURO AI didn’t perform great with amounts but nailed the track. We’ll need to consider it heavily moving forward. - Warm air advection always wins All in all, I enjoyed tracking this. In typical southeast fashion, there are haves and have nots but many of us got on the board and shook the drought early in the season. The pattern going forward favors the mid-south but let’s just see. I think we have something to track at least once more as the pattern starts to break down late month.