BooneWX

If the ridge is going to pump next week let it pump is all I can say! At this juncture, I’d rather see it trend stronger and shunt the storm track well north. All of this rain we’ve had can kick rocks.

CAD? Never heard of her.

I went ahead and threw another round of fertilizer on the lawn yesterday in preparation for the weeks ahead.

The part that makes me sick is that if I went back in time to a week ago and sent everyone that imagery, we’d all expect to be counting snowfall in feet right now. 9 times out of 10, that setup is cash money for this end of NC. I wouldn’t have pictured cold air being completely non-existent on this entire side of the continent in the middle of Feb.

For what it’s worth, the euro nailed the Cumberland plateau snowfall this morning and the 06z run was absolutely bullish, even into the foothills.

Agreed! Very ready to hit the blue line creeks with my fly rod in tote and my wading shorts on instead of waders.

That backside is going to hammer the higher elevations in a few hours.

The sleet is coming down so heavy here that it’s starting to accumulate despite temps being in the 40s

I’ve got pingers!

Also about the third day in a row of multiple models hinting at a jackpot zone around Burke/Catawba counties.

Sorry y’all. I made a lot of “never will I ask for ____” again prayers in exchange for the Dec 2018 storm. My bad.

After all of the windshield wiping we’ve seen this year, I wouldn’t expect less!

Also a reminder that the HRRR nailed that last synoptic event in Jan.

The tough pill to swallow for the NAM is that it’s typically bias in its cold solutions.

I still think this is going to be a significant impact for the mountains. For me personally, flakes will be more than anything I’ve seen in 12 months, so I can live with the output I’m seeing.

My theory: Warmer oceans > more energy > stronger storms tending to go poleward faster.

At this point, I think I’m good with that. I had my evening jog in shorts and a t-shirt last night and it reminded me how taxing the early darkness and the endless rainy days have been. Give me 9 pm sunsets, mid 70s and towering thunderclouds.

I’m going to hang on until tomorrow before I let the fat lady go warm up her voice but the trends certainly aren’t positive atm. Even with an ULL, it’s tough to watch us work with only marginal cold air all the way into lower Canada. Truly an anomalous pattern we’ve had this whole winter. The things I’d do for a 1040 in the Ohio valley right now!

It’d be neat to have cold air on this side of continent, wouldn’t it?

As a fellow foothiller I think we have a good shot but there’s no denying the high risk for downsloping to completely ruin the event.

Very good 12z GFS run

This is going to be a good run it appears. Could always be better but it keeps it on the table.

March 2009 keeps getting thrown around and it may be a good analog indeed. My gut says obviously higher elevations will do well but somewhere in the western piedmont, a death band forms and dumps with temps in the mid 30s. There will be a clear screw zone on either side of that band.

I know man. Trust me, I’m not wishing that result on anyone in the Lee. You and I both know that it’s a delicate balance though. ULLs can work in the foothills but you can’t be too far away from the best lift to overcome the sinking air and more times than not, these setups struggle to work out.

I’ve heard March 2009 be thrown around quite a bit and I actually think that’s a pretty good analog and possibly an evolution we can see. That storm had severe downsloping in the Lee but picked up totals rapidly west and east. Just look at that gradient from just west of Morganton to Hickory! anyways. The gut tells me there will be two winners: obviously the higher elevations but still someone in the eastern foothills/western piedmont is going to get under a death band of sorts and score with temps in the mid 30s. Good luck to all forecasters trying to pinpoint that spot though!