BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Just some obs: if I’m looking for western NC snow in this orientation and setup, I’d want to see some returns breaking out over central and northern Alabama imo. Sure enough, radar has improved dramatically there. Virga stretching as far north as Chattanooga right now.
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It’s because these models are tools, not verbatim. Everyone take a breather and watch the radar at this point. Many of us will get snow. Some more than others but weather is going to weather and the NAM/HRRR/GFS etc are all beyond useless at this juncture.
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I just think we all need to step away from the models. People emotionally attaching to each run when the current runs aren’t even on the same planet as what’s verifying on the ground. People are cliff diving over the NAM when it initializes with a quarter of what’s on radar currently.
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Be careful over analyzing models that are currently doing a horrible job initializing radar data and obs
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Enjoy the nowcasting folks. Fingers crossed for an overperformer.
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Let the trends continue. yall go compare radar to the HRRR. Not even close currently. Like not even the same stratosphere.
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Honestly a dusting to a half an inch would probably have worse impacts than 2+. You can’t scrape a dusting from the roads and salt will be useless with the temps. Talk about being slickernchit Wednesday morning.
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We’re like two more ticks west until a token winter weather advisory
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Someone get @Brick Tamland
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Mping begs to differ on this being virga
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Euro AI damn near gives you and I an inch based on ratios
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Radar returns are lighting up in TX, LA and even up to Oklahoma and Arkansas. The significance? Not a single model is close to showing what’s currently happening in real time.
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The hurricane hunters decided to give modeling a boost for 0Z .
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Webber is bullish on this possibly trending west until go time
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Models about to give some virga mcflurries
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.
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Just insane to see the panhandle with near foot totals
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Let’s see how stout this airmass really is. Couldn’t even cross into the teens this morning, so I’m thinking 37/38 this afternoon.
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What time?
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21°. Color me unimpressed
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No snow here! Not surprised to see Lenoir score. Those bands last night were robust.
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Be neat to have a Fab Feb. It’s been a long time.
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The reality is that later this month should give us a slightly relaxed pattern, that’s our opportunity imo. We had too much of a good thing with this current setup. I myself, will be rooting for an absolute bowling ball with negative tilt. Enough with this northern stream strung out mess.
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That’s one way to hedge your bets .
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And if we get a signal, I’m going to overtly root for a super phased, negative tilt bomb in the main thread. Enough of this weak, northern stream crap where everyone hopes to get a few token flakes over a wide area.
