BooneWX

In lieu of my takeaways, the Euro AI has been very wobbly for this storm and not nearly as consistent

Seems like the models are catching on to the WAA overriding the arctic airmass. I’d expect improvements to continue on the northwest side today and tomorrow.

Not to mention how rare of a NW trend it would take to get us involved. Right now the low tracks almost through central Fl and then over the eastern edge of the Gulf Stream. I’ve seen plenty of scenarios where RDU is in the jackpot with a storm just a little bit off of the coast and it trends just barely inland and buries us instead. Idk if I’ve ever seen one this far out translate to a western NC event. Like I said earlier. The track is fairly baked in imo. There will be a minor jog nw but not enough to get us involved alone. If we can get a full phase and generate some overrunning we’re in the game. As of right now, no guidance shows that except for a few ensembles mostly skewed to the Canadian, who’s own Op, is trending away from a phase.

Tastes the same when it’s washed down with the shine

I’d take a breather on these comments. Yall are all wasting your time. A salt circle with a sacrificed rabbit on a stake in the middle got me nothing but a sleet fest last week.

Yep. Stop me when you’ve heard this before but the cold seems a bit overdone and it’s starting to reflect that. I do think it hits a firm stopping point sooner than normal but if you look at the jet orienting sw to ne from the gulf, it screams overrunning. There’s a lot to still watch for WNC.

Idc if I’m wishcasting or not. Look at that jet on the GFS with a Gulf connection. No we won’t get huge rates but do not be shocked if this trend continues and cams deliver a 12+ hr period of light snow. .

Wow! It even gives me @wncsnowsome McFlurries

Yep. We’re all in on a phase or bust with us. A couple of Mets like Webb keep saying they expect robust overrunning to start showing up when the CAMs are in range. The jet streak depicted on most models is very favorable so we have that. I wouldn’t expect globals to show overrunning at this range either.

To be fair, the Euro isn’t close on the phase timing or tilt. If it’s right, it’s game over except for the immediate coast.

Interesting to see the amount of big hits from the Canadian Ensembles. Probably hanging on to lost hope but we’re also at a point where options still seem to be on the table. 7/20 are massive hits locally 12/20 decent event or better 8/20 no dice

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It’s all noise until king NAM comes into range

Yea this one is going to sting big time lol. We’ll be due at some point and I don’t want to hear a thing about how unfair it is, when it’s our time.

Canadian a tick further sw with that northern energy

GFS ticked towards the Canadian a bit, as did the NAM at range. Let’s see if the Canadian keeps putting the chips on the table.

We want big dogs only. Time to eat. No pups allowed in this room.

Yep, started strong, didn’t end well

Well get ready because it looks much improved at 96hrs

Fwiw, the NAM at range favors the CMC with the energy

Everything except the Canadian misses the phase and you end up with a flatter, weaker system that can’t blossom precip or drive north. The phase or lack thereof will determine if we’re in or out in the coming days.

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Hell I’d take that now. .3” with 20:1 ratios is a big event.

It’s on an island by itself right now but this is a solution that most of us should root for. No track change but add in the full phase and we’d all get to eat with little consequence.

I was pretty pessimistic yesterday but this morning there’s a New England meltdown occurring among weenies on X. They’re mad because…wait for it….the Canadian was right all along for their weekend system