BooneWX

A few hundredths of an inch of accretion from western Cleveland/Rutherford, up through the rest of the foothills into lower Va. a tenth in the mts

Am I remembering correctly that the Canadian models typically have a cold bias? I know the NAM does, but I feel like the Canadian suite does this sort of ice storm bell-ringing pretty often. Fram says no issues Saturday.

The precipitation is getting lighter and lighter as well with each model suite. That doesn’t bode well for trees and power lines.

Well I don’t care where we discuss things as long as the HOT LIGHT IS ON THE THREAD LIKE A KRISPY KREME AFTER 12Z

LETS GET IT ROLLING. I WANT THE HOT LIGHT ON AFTER 12Z LIKE WERE RUNNING A DADGUM KRISPY KREME

I pay attention about as well as my wife says I do.

If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways

Yea I’m a bit skeptical unless the low can continue trending weaker. I’ve almost never seen an in-situ CAD produce anything more than maybe a tenth of an inch of ice. Dew points rarely verify on the low end of the scale in these events. I’m fine with all of that. If it’s not snow or even sleet, I’m not interested anyways. Nothing good about freezing rain.

I’m normally very skeptical about in-situ CAD setups because the dew points rarely verify on the lower scale as the models depict, but this one is starting to get interesting for the CAD region. If that low continues to look less amped and further south, I’m afraid that cad won’t be easily scoured out.

Heck, let a few storms cut. Like I said earlier, we have ZERO snowpack anywhere we need it to be. We’re setting up for quite a few high pressure over the top opportunities and some snow would put a cap on modifying those air masses.

If it were me, I’d shop the Avery county area. Ashe fits the distance you want but lacks the orientation and elevation to produce the best results from flow events. Here are some other areas in Watauga that will always do well and are lesser known: zionville, Matney, Sugar Grove, Vilas. If snow is truly a priority to you, I’d avoid Valle Crucis and anywhere east of Boone.

Just hang in there. It’ll be blocking and +PNA galore by Memorial Day weekend!!

Also, idk if I’m the only one to notice this but holy smokes what a year of haves and have nots with regard to rain. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a year long weather pattern where when it rains, we’re talking a foot+ in a very short window and when it flips dry, we are absolutely talking about nothing, zilch, nada for 2 months. There’s been zero middle ground. The pattern is either borderline tropical or it gives you absolutely nothing for 6-8 weeks.

I’m afraid Saturday may be our table setting storm. It sucks if so but it’s the sacrificial lamb we need, even in the climate favored areas. I’m not saying it won’t sting, cause it will. But laying down a significant snow pack to our north as we go into a VERY strong -NAO is a small victory even if it comes in the form of 35 degrees and rain. Based on everything I’ve seen, we aren’t punting. Just simply getting the nice china out of the cabinet and dusting off the wine glasses.

I may be seeing this wrong but based on that radar depiction, we just need better moisture transport further north to help out. One of those classic situations where it’s snowing if it’s coming down hard enough and drizzling if it’s not.

I’m fine with this at the day 5-6 range. Trends overall are in our favor, ensembles look workable. Let’s make some magic happen.

Saturday remains interesting at this juncture. We certainly will need some help but when do we not?

Very tiny flurries flying here in Caldwell Co this evening.

Had a period of light snow down here in the hills

And that’s coming from someone who enjoys making people feel miserable about winter weather odds. Weather twitter has been quite the crap show this week. I love looking ahead at patterns as much as the next enthusiast but it’s not healthy to cancel winter in late December based on models that move storms 3,000 miles every 6 hrs.

really good analysis for those of us wanting some hope as well: https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1739780789842112635?s=46

And right on que - the happy hour GFS delivers

Oddly enough, I’m torn because I feel like more times than not, a SWE means suppression city for storm tracks. I really think we need to time up the NAO and PNA for one frickin time in our lives. We’ve had a ton of one or the other but not a lot of both in recent years. you may certainly be right though. This side of the globe is almost devoid of cold and we need that to change in a big way to have a chance. It’s alarming when places like Buffalo and Chicago really haven’t even been able to muster up a decent storm and we’re almost to January.

if only it worked this way with winter weather.