BooneWX

Mesovorticies starting to show up on the edge of Helene’s eye.

Explosive and I mean EXPLOSIVE hot towers going up right now

Them 2 days ago: don’t buy the unrealistically low pressure readings and winds on the models! today: ooooo this Texas sized cat 3 set to send the southeast into the Stone Age just isn’t cutting it

I’d probably get torched for saying this elsewhere but it reminds me of Michael

Too much banter in the tropical thread acting like this thing is underperforming. An almost Cat 3 of this size is going to have appreciably worse impacts than your recent compact 4s.

You’re making the correct call

According to Duke, Lake James, Rhodhiss, Hickory and Lookout Shoals are all expected to reach record levels and they’ve begun aggressively pushing water through the spillways.

Update: NWS GSP DID share it but it has since been taken down.

Sorry yall. Didn’t mean to spread misinformation if that’s indeed faked. I’m not the only one though. Dozens of well trained Mets are sharing it as we speak.

My god

4.85” - Granite Falls NC

Per recon data, it looks like the beginning of the RI cycle might be commencing.

It’s definitely ticked east overnight in real time and on guidance. The caveat I didn’t mention last night in my response is that a big storm is likely to resist the tug as well regardless of strength, so I think we’re seeing that. We’re really in territory we haven’t been in for a while. I feel like we’ve been spoiled with tight compact storms for years and we finally have a large lumbering beast.

1.58 last night, that’s almost 5 inches in the last 48 hrs at my home. Lake is looking high this morning and we’re not even close to the main show.

@Shackive honestly had the same question for a while but most of the hurricane models have initialized as much as 10mb too low compared to obs from hurricane hunters. Sort of speaks to the need this nation has for better funding and resources being allocated to our weather data.

I can’t directly speak to the reasoning behind the NHC being on the western side of guidance but if I had to take a stab at it, we have a complex interaction with the upper level low over the Ozarks. I think they may be banking on Helene feeling that tug to the west a bit more than the models indicate. Also important to note that the models are initializing Helene as a stronger cane than it currently is. A stronger system will resist the tug from the ULL and try to go more poleward. Since the models seem to be overdoing intensity at the moment, they’re probably going to be spot on with the track being further west than guidance.

Also Blowing Rock was hit by a tornado this evening. I ironically almost zero metered it out of pure chance driving back from a Boone meeting. Shoutout to @Tyler Penlandfor the coverage he’s getting on the socials rn!

Edit: he said Atlanta but obviously that includes everyone south

I’m afraid this is going to be a generational wind event for you guys and all of Georgia. Brad Panovich said it well today: “this is Georgia’s Hugo.”

Storm discussion aside - sending everyone prayers and positive vibes this evening as we begin what’s likely to be a historic event for this region, impacting many folks harshly. I wish I could use the term historic to describe a winter storm but this is what we have for now!

SW Nc may get Hugo’d based on some of these wind estimates.

Helene now appears to have a closed eyewall per Cuban radar. She’s primed for takeoff.

The consistency of the icon and gfs have me nervous

You can already see the southerly flow really cranking on radar. We’re going to have some overachieving cells this afternoon.

An image worth archiving