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Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

Rjay

By Rjay,
in New York City Metro

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Rjay
Rjay

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread.  Who cares.  There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this ran

donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Model Debate:

Brian5671
Brian5671

Post more please Post less please

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. Even if a blizzard is likely, the criteria do not allow for a blizzard warning at the lead time involved.

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/warningsdefined#Blizzard Warning

I do remember, many moons ago, there was a temperature criteria of 20° or below. I 

know that has not been in place for a long time.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

watches by this afternoon for some areas

As I mentioned earlier, the NWS said in their AFDs that they were closely following the NBM, so given that the NBM has taken a decent bump upwards (maybe included the NAM already) at 07Z, I'd expect watches to go up for anywhere that is at at least 6" on that map, which includes this entire subforum basically and the Philly subforum too (note that this map includes previous snow from the Catskills northward).  

snowfall_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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BoulderWX

BoulderWX

Posted
Posted

I think much of S.NJ, the coast, and from about NYC to the east see a major storm but I think it will have a very sharp cutoff on the NW side -- this is one where. city and island could see double digits where areas just to the west see a 2-5 type event. Will be interesting to see if trends continue NW or if we start to see some settling of the models with better sampling present. 

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TJW014

TJW014

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Steve D in his latest video a few minutes ago on YouTube not buying into GFS solution at all. He said the double barrel low look that is tucked in is the model misinterpreting the inverted trough. Expects if anything, GFS low will trend east, not west.

Same guy who said there was no storm threat two days ago. 
IMO something between GFS and Euro is a good bet. 

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yes, we've been NAM-ed. Huge to see even if it's a bit out of its range (the important changes were mostly earlier).  

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

still looks like 2/6/10 to me....i remember the dt maps with 8-12 for us, we got close to bupkiss....this just wants to be a south jersey and south event for the time being....however, i'm not seeing all the confluence that happened back then....which some mets thought would not be enough to stop the storm in its tracks...we've seen it happen a few times since....i never like to see the south getting the brunt for us up here; we actually do  a little better when the bulk is north of us. but hey, we'll see.....it is always heart breaking to see those bands stop at mid monmouth or skirt east. but we do not know that yet.....

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherpruf said:

still looks like 2/6/10 to me....i remember the dt maps with 8-12 for us, we got close to bupkiss....this just wants to be a south jersey and south event for the time being....however, i'm not seeing all the confluence that happened back then....which some mets thought would not be enough to stop the storm in its tracks...we've seen it happen a few times since....i never like to see the south getting the brunt for us up here; we actually do  a little better when the bulk is north of us. but hey, we'll see.....it is always heart breaking to see those bands stop at mid monmouth or skirt east. but we do not know that yet.....

We dont have brutally cold air to keep this south.

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weatherpruf

weatherpruf

Posted
Posted
Just now, TJW014 said:

Same guy who said there was no storm threat two days ago. 
IMO something between GFS and Euro is a good bet. 

he's not out to lunch, but he is nothing special either. in that business, no one should expect you to be bullseye on anything; i personally don't care for his forecasts but he is far from terrible. its probably ok to have a little skepticism this time of the year.

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WeatherGeek2025

WeatherGeek2025

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The issue with the idea of posting blizzard warnings later today was that the lead time is too long. Blizzard warnings are only posted when blizzard conditions are ongoing or imminent in the next 12-18 hours.

i was talking about how it could be a sunny day without a cloud in the sky and we could still have a blizzard warning as long as there's snow on the ground and it's blowing it around causing the visibility to be 1/4 miles or less for 3 hours or more with sustained winds of at least 35mph?

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WeatherGeek2025

WeatherGeek2025

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The issue with the idea of posting blizzard warnings later today was that the lead time is too long. Blizzard warnings are only posted when blizzard conditions are ongoing or imminent in the next 12-18 hours.

they will probably mention the blizzard conditions possibility and have to go with a winter storm watch

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Im wondering. All the models are showing a dual low. Maybe the models are adjusting to the low closer to the coast rather than the low in the ocean.

If the phase is cleaner and happens in a better spot/sooner, it’ll be better for us. We don’t want all these vorts ahead of the trough though, that’s what spawns these convective lows. 

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I think much of S.NJ, the coast, and from about NYC to the east see a major storm but I think it will have a very sharp cutoff on the NW side -- this is one where. city and island could see double digits where areas just to the west see a 2-5 type event. Will be interesting to see if trends continue NW or if we start to see some settling of the models with better sampling present. 

The coast especially LI & the jersey shore are due for one. Hopefully they get this one! I still have 8-9” of snow cover here. I’m ok with a miss lol

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