Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

that is right in line with my lived experience with these types of storms. sometimes people would chastise me and not believe what i was actually reporting, because a few miles makes a difference. i will not be surprised by it at all. hoping for better though. we still have changes ahead.

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

1/23 12z RGEM total QPF storm:

 

 

Total snow / sleet frz rain (10:1)

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

that is right in line with my lived experience with these types of storms. sometimes people would chastise me and not believe what i was actually reporting, because a few miles makes a difference. i will not be surprised by it at all. hoping for better though. we still have changes ahead.

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

[NEG NAO]

I think some folks are still over reacting to that mix line because of what happened December 26 with the unexpected speed of the warm layer arriving earlier than expected....

[NEG NAO]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

like December 26 ?

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Less snow but mostly due to lower qpf. Still 6-10

the overall system looks se to me but we get a weird dry spot

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

like December 26 ?

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast

the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

like December 26 ?

that one actually had backend snows though... for me the classics are march 94 and march 2017. that 94 storm was brutal; like the house was being sandblasted. unlike this one, temps were more marginal so it was slushy on bottom; try shoveling 5-6 inches of that.....

[winterwx21]

The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy. 

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

Going to be a nowcast event. 

[CentralNJSnowman]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think some folks are still over reacting to that mix line because of what happened December 26 with the unexpected speed of the warm layer arriving earlier than expected....

It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ.  When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot.  But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions

[Prue11]

Going with 6-10” for my area. 

[East of the Parkway]

2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ.  When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot.  But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions

Life east of the parkway my friend. 

[winterwarlock]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014695227408228416

[eduggs]

Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding.

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy. 

Not saying it's wrong, but the NAM 3k is best for very short range.

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12 ICON

total QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[CentralNJSnowman]

3 minutes ago, East of the Parkway said:

Life east of the parkway my friend. 

Haha - yeah.  I'm actually substantially west of the Parkway, but far enough South that we sometimes (although not quite as often) suffer from some pretty brutal cutoffs

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

your talking a few miles at 60 hours - not going to be reliable at this range

Also, compare out west to 6z on this model. More compressed on the western edge which pushed the primary a bit SE which is a trend we want to see continue. A definite improvement over 6z IMO, regardless of the snow map or sleet line depiction.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding.

If the overall storm evolution is shifting in a better direction that’s all I really need at this point. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding.

There is a weird dry slot. Thats why the totals were lower. All the models trended better so far.

[Snowlover11]

Wow. Just woke up to the good ol’ NAM.

[MJO812]

State of emergency for NY

Remote learning possible for Monday

[BoulderWX]

First Call

- MMU: 7-11; sleet

- CPK: 6-10; sleet

- SPARTA: 12-16; all snow

- White Plains: 10 - 14; mostly if not all snow 

[snywx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding.

So far every 12z run has been consistent with where the mix line reaches. As of right now anyone S of the TZ bridge is prob gonna taint at some point. North of there it’s gonna be fun to watch. Wouldn’t surprise me if the favored spots in the interior approach 24”

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Haha - yeah.  I'm actually substantially west of the Parkway, but far enough South that we sometimes (although not quite as often) suffer from some pretty brutal cutoffs

i'm too far north for the huggers, which hit monmouth and ocean then scoot to long island, and too far south for the northern storms. it has been this way my whole life. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Not saying it's wrong, but the NAM 3k is best for very short range.

i'd use HRRR for really short term.. Nam sucks overall except sniffing out the warm nose. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is a weird dry slot. Thats why the totals were lower. All the models trended better so far.

RGEM and ICON look like holds to me in terms of the thermals. The ICON might actually be a tiny hair warmer but 6z was a weenie run. The NAM was better. I guess the positive takeaway is we have pretty good run to run consistency and even inter-model consistency now that the GFS is getting closer to consensus.

[Winterweatherlover]

12Z NAM looked way better for NYC, RGEM slightly worse, expect some wobbling, going to be close in terms of mainly snow vs several hours of sleet but I think we are narrowing the borderline area to 30 miles north and south of the I80 corridor.