Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Stormlover74]

Everything faster. 3k has us close to 6 by 1pm with a flip soon after. 

[jm1220]

Good to see the NAM get slightly colder and bump the QPF up. With the heavy snow burst to start it should work to hold the warm air back a little at 750-800mb that would flip us over. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the lighter QPF models also flipped us quicker. Becoming a little more confident at least the northern parts of NYC/LI and toward I-80 get the higher end of 8-12”. 

[wxman]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

At least the Nam held serve ,,,,,actually it looked better as bigger thump of snow up front and the mix line stopped moving north,,,,,,,qpf improved also

If the coastal is stronger like the GFS has been showing for days the mix line won't get north of the Monmouth cty 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Good to see the NAM get slightly colder and bump the QPF up. With the heavy snow burst to start it should work to hold the warm air back a little at 750-800mb that would flip us over. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the lighter QPF models also flipped us quicker. Becoming a little more confident at least the northern parts of NYC/LI and toward I-80 get the higher end of 8-12”. 

Yup the more intense the precip the more it'll fight back against mixing. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

barely any sleet on the nam New York City and north! Snows well into Monday!

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

ok I wrote that down you said 6 -12 tops - we should have a snowfall accumulation contest

i'll go one better.... i don't think it will even be that much. why? in my lifetime, when lots of sleet was on the table,  these big storms have topped out under 6, with the only exception being march 93, over 30 years ago and one of the biggest storms of the era. this one may be on that same level, though not the same kind of setup, and that could bring us to around 10-11 if enough snow falls. all my old skeptic friends at coffee this morning thought, seeing is believing. we're all retired, so we can afford to sit back with popcorn....but hey, i'm rooting for you, hope you're right. we could do with a good crush job. costco was cleaned out yesterday but wegman's had plenty of milk at 630 today....had to pick up some new flu and covid tests. bread was still a bit of an issue....i really don't think people need to panic, but if they need refills on meds, they should get them. they had plenty of salt too. 

[BoulderWX]

HRW look great at 12Z: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012312&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

[TriPol]

I wouldn't want to be a meteorologist in the NWS right now.

[EastonSN+]

Check the difference in primary location:

[NJwx85]

The 3k NAM has the mix line near I-80.

[donsutherland1]

The 12z NAM was less amplified at 500 mb than the 6z run and it backed off on the push of the warmth aloft. It will be interesting to see the soundings changes. This should alleviate some of the worries concerning the New York City area and nearby suburbs. The warmth still reached parts of the Jersey Shore in a pretty big way. QPF also increased over 6z.

[SnoSki14]

The Nam went from the least snowy to one of the snowiest in 1 run lol

Hence why you should use it sparingly beyond 36-48hrs

[Stormlover74]

Qpf over 1.5" now

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

HRW look great at 12Z: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012312&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

looks like the trend is the low is way south! that's what we need

[EastonSN+]

Primary location 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Check the difference in primary location:

Yep, weaker and further south primary is definitely what we want. I haven’t looked at the 700/850mb panels but I’d assume those improved as well. 

[Northof78]

New NAM is 12" plus for almost all in NYC forum with a much further south primary and more confluence, cut back significantly in Central NE...wow

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully it's the start of a trend today. 

[MJO812]

Fv3 is snowier

 

[Northof78]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully it's the start of a trend today. 

That was the only model that had NYC/ N NJ at less than 10", all other models just need to remain roughly steady and we are good to go. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Check the difference in primary location:

Yes - the further south the primary transfers to the coast the mix line stays further south also..........

[WeatherGeek2025]

Nam shows 14-17 inches citywide and north. Precip starts Sunday around 5AM and ends it around 4PM Monday west to east. that's over 36 hours

[weatherpruf]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully it's the start of a trend today. 

i'mm rooting for you brother....sorry for the loss of your mall.....we're gonna miss it; saw Tron there in 1982.....

[kat5hurricane]

One thing is for certain, the models are all beefing up the QPF which at the very least is going to strengthen the thump before any mixing. Westchester on North are going to get crushed either way, probably some 18+" totals there.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Fv3 is snowier

 

jackpot nyc

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i'll go one better.... i don't think it will even be that much. why? in my lifetime, when lots of sleet was on the table,  these big storms have topped out under 6, with the only exception being march 93, over 30 years ago and one of the biggest storms of the era. this one may be on that same level, though not the same kind of setup, and that could bring us to around 10-11 if enough snow falls. all my old skeptic friends at coffee this morning thought, seeing is believing. we're all retired, so we can afford to sit back with popcorn....but hey, i'm rooting for you, hope you're right. we could do with a good crush job. costco was cleaned out yesterday but wegman's had plenty of milk at 630 today....had to pick up some new flu and covid tests. bread was still a bit of an issue....i really don't think people need to panic, but if they need refills on meds, they should get them. they had plenty of salt too. 

so you are saying under 6 here ? ok got it

[mikeysed]

Nam Kuchera. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so you are saying under 6 here ? ok got it

i'm saying that is what i have seen in 63 years. i leave open the possibilities. now that said, the situation is fluid and may be changing yet again, based on what some are reporting here.

[winterwarlock]

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, mikeysed said:

Nam Kuchera. 

that map makes a lot of sense since the Raritan River is considered a natural boundary in some storm setups......