Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[wthrmn654]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I don't get why they put the highest amounts on their pinpoint 

Range versus pinpoint #s i like because it gives a better idea if the variables in the forecast where mix leads to lower end but more snow means higher end.  I believe that's the expected # for select locations. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It may have been 93. I was pushing karts at a supermarket called stew Leonards and was absolutely frozen in the morning. 

look through this and let us know

Ray's Winter Storm Archive

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less.

[SACRUS]

 

snow by 6 - 7 am

 

 

[jm1220]

Just now, NYER72 said:

so question from a lurker.  What is the difference between how the AI models adapt over time versus established? is it more pattern recognition versus manual calibration??

I’m not sure of the exact algorithm but it’s supposed to print out predictions based on analysis of similar storms in the past and gain experience and therefore better predictions in the future based on verifications. I’m sure it would evaluate similar patterns at 500mb, analogs etc to come up with the predictions. I’m not sure how it directly evaluates current atmospheric conditions to come up with the predictions but it seems to match up pretty well with the operational EC. 

[North and West]

I will try this again,,,,,,people posting that THE NAM had Little Rock getting nothing a=nd right now Little Rock has 6 inches,,,,now back to the kids game

.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

look through this and let us know

Ray's Winter Storm Archive

Yeah I was looking and did not find so am thinking it was January of 93.

[SACRUS]

 

A bit colder

 

[Winterweatherlover]

the plus euro looks like a nice thump, the negative is it looks like it brings ZR into NYC/LI

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less.

I believe pivotal does not use sleet in any snow map

[SACRUS]

 

But mixes a bit north of 06z

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

the plus euro looks like a nice thump, the negative is it looks like it brings ZR into NYC/LI

Ironically is the developing coast which shoots the warm layer up. We would have been better off without it. Would have flipped but more snow ahead.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hate the 10 to 1 maps for southern areas. Ratios with the sleet mix will be less.

Hopefully the ratios start out above 10-1 when the column is still cold, so maybe we average out 10-1 before the sleet comes in. Some places north and west that stay all snow will likely average 15:1 type ratios given the amount of moisture in the snow growth zone and lift. 

[SACRUS]

 

12z EC

 

QPF

 

Snow

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, nycsnow said:

I believe pivotal does not use sleet in any snow map

That's the issue I believe. Southern areas will not reach that. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z EC

 

QPF

 

Snow

 

Ugh.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

I'm modest ,,,,,,,,,,,,but I KNOW 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ironically is the developing coast which shoots the warm layer up. We would have been better off without it. Would have flipped but more snow ahead.

I don't mind changing to sleet but changing to ZR would be a nightmare. I agree the coastal is more north this run which is why even the extreme coast of eastern SNE flips to rain at the end of this run.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

But mixes a bit north of 06z

 

Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south.

[nycsnow]

Euro good, all short range minus nams good, Ukie good, gfs decent

nam sucks icon sucks

[winterwarlock]

euro probably is the one peeps should sign on for....widespread 6-8 for CJ, 7-10 north of 78

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Needed the coastal to slide ene and develop further south.

Plain rain creeping up to LI

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

euro probably is the one peeps should sign on for....widespread 6-8 for CJ, 7-10 north of 78

We want RAP

[kat5hurricane]

24 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

still very bullish 

VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event. 

[sussexcountyobs]

From everything I've read, and all the Mets I've watched. Central Park is looking like minimum 6-10, probably 8-12. My question is what's the betting line that CP measures more than 3.8" regardless?

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Plain rain creeping up to LI

Central and Eastern LI would likely see a little rain if the euro secondary track is accurate but it's mainly after precip has lightened up significantly.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

VERY bullish, 10-12" areawide seems highly unlikely but they're in the process of lowering the numbers little by little, they were at 13-15" yesterday, so I expect them to continue lowering amounts as we near the event. 

8-14 nyc east I think looks good 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Plain rain creeping up to LI

It’s not going to rain on LI (plain rain) outside of maybe Montauk. This kind of cold surface air won’t be dislodged unless we had a strong prolonged onshore flow. I could maybe see freezing rain for a time but the back half of this storm is probably sleet. NJ gets that prolonged onshore flow so south of Tom’s River it might really change to rain. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

A bit colder

 

Nice 6-10. Thats what we should expect.

[psv88]

Euro is fine. Not worried about rain on Long Island lol