Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[North and West]

This is becoming less exciting lol

Hey neighbor… just remember, none of us have any control over that’s going to happen. And whatever does happen, try to enjoy it or have some time to relax as it snows outside.


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[dmillz25]

Already down to 22 here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You’re consistently the most pessimistic poster here so your comment isn’t surprising.

 

Maybe he meant to the high side? Considering past post though I doubt it.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, dmillz25 said:

Already down to 22 here

21 here. Dropping like a rock. 

[Blizzardo]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Already down to 22 here

I'm at 25 already and going to 10 by 6am it says.. damn!

[cleetussnow]

38 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Part of me thinks he’s just bitter that the storm trended to a sleet/ice storm for his area and now he’s rooting on an enormous north trend to spite the rest of I-95 too.

That was always going to happen but his weather oracle failed him again.

[Brasiluvsnow]

16 in New City Rockland County and yep its brrrrrrr out there

[Snowman92]

Between 7 and 14 degrees during the snowstorm for me is going to be insane. The fingers will freeze while shoveling

[Blizzardo]

Just now, Snowman92 said:

Between 7 and 14 degrees during the snowstorm for me is going to be insane. The fingers will freeze while shoveling

They make some nice gloves you know... Lol

[jdj5211]

17 here. Feel like temp of -1.

Let’s go NAM!


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[Mr. T.]

0z HRRR. Still early to use, but starting off with the 0z models.

[MJO812]

Down to 22 already

[Wannabehippie]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Down to 22 already

18 in Riverdale NJ

 

[SACRUS]

1/24 00z NAM

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

HRRR 0z and Nam 18z same hour!

[Wxbear25]

@500mb through 27 hours

Cabo energy is captured (faster than the 18z for sure) and already tilted negative.

I wonder if an earlier capture of that Cabo energy would be better. If it gets caught in the flow earlier, maybe it loses its amplitude further south resulting in less WAA aloft by the time it gets to our latitude... just spitballing theories though, looking for cold lol

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

@500mb through 27 hours

Cabo energy is captured (faster than the 18z for sure) and already tilted negative.

I wonder if an earlier capture of that Cabo energy would be better. If it gets caught in the flow earlier, maybe it loses its amplitude further south resulting in less WAA aloft by the time it gets to our latitude... just spitballing theories though, looking for cold lol

All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise.

i'd rather get 10 inches of snow and no sleet than 9 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet. I like snows that rips from beginning to the end! seems like lately that's hard to come by cause It seems like the city always gets some type of wintry mix!

 

I can't stand wintery mix!

[SACRUS]

 

[EW9616]

I’ve seen some TV Mets referring and showing the Graf model that shows little mixing. Anyone know what model that is? Is correlated with one of the main US model?


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[SACRUS]

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

looks worse 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, EW9616 said:

I’ve seen some TV Mets referring and showing the Graf model that shows little mixing. Anyone know what model that is? Is correlated with one of the main US model?


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GRAF refers to an AI-based global weather forecasting model developed by NOAA (GSL) and collaborators, and the name stands for:

GRAF = Global Regression AI Forecast model

It’s part of the new generation of machine-learning weather models, similar in spirit to GraphCast or Pangu, but developed inside the NOAA ecosystem.

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What is the GRAF model?

GRAF is a pure machine-learning global forecast model that:

• Learns atmospheric evolution from historical reanalysis data

• Produces global forecasts without explicitly solving physical equations

• Uses regression-based deep learning to predict future atmospheric states

Think of it as:

“AI learning how the atmosphere usually evolves, then extrapolating forward.”

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Key characteristics

• Global coverage

• AI / ML-based (no traditional physics core)

• Predicts large-scale fields (e.g., 500 mb heights, winds, temps, MSLP)

• Extremely fast compared to physics models

• Designed primarily for pattern and flow prediction

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What GRAF is good at

• Large-scale synoptic pattern recognition

• Jet stream placement

• Ridge / trough evolution

• Medium-range guidance (Days 3–7)

This makes it useful for:

• Pattern forecasting

• Ensemble support

• Early signal detection

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What GRAF is NOT good at

• Precipitation amounts

• Snowfall totals

• Precipitation type

• Mesoscale features (banding, fronts)

• Boundary-layer processes

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

looks worse 

Not sure about that…maybe just faster.

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

looks worse 

Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet .   This was never our storm except on the GFS 

[North and West]

Has the NWS clarified if we should expect to receive puking or ripping snowfall rates?


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[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Not sure about that…maybe just faster.

Thump looks better actually 

[Snowlover11]

Meh 0z NAM extremely torchy more so than 18z

[psv88]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet .   This was never our storm except on the GFS 

How is a foot of snow “not our storm”?

what a crazy comment