Hurricane Melissa

[olafminesaw]

Recon has taken off, should get some more data in a couple hours

[NJwx85]

On a side note, -80C cloud tops or colder have now wrapped around the Eastern 2/3rds of the CDO. Hard to remember that happening before in the Atlantic. Only other example I can recall is Dorian at peak intensity.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

On a side note, -80C cloud tops or colder have now wrapped around the Eastern 2/3rds of the CDO. Hard to remember that happening before in the Atlantic. Only other example I can recall is Dorian at peak intensity.

I believe Milton did as well when it peaked.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Recon has taken off, should get some more data in a couple hours

Latest Dvorak estimates are in the 165 to 170kts neighborhood. I bet we get 160kts at 5pm.

[Interstate]

Still moving due west for the most part.

[ValpoVike]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest Dvorak estimates are in the 165 to 170kts neighborhood. I bet we get 160kts at 5pm.

They held it at 150kts for the 5pm.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest Dvorak estimates are in the 165 to 170kts neighborhood. I bet we get 160kts at 5pm.

They kept it at 175mph. However the discussion says the inbound aircraft might find Melissa stronger than 150kts.

[NJwx85]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

They kept it at 175mph. However the discussion says the inbound aircraft might find Melissa stronger than 150kts.

 

1 minute ago, ValpoVike said:

They held it at 150kts for the 5pm.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now

[WolfStock1]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Still moving due west for the most part.

 

That is a really good thing.   The further west it goes, the less the key population areas like Kingston get hit - with wind and rain.

Go West, young storm, go West.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now

I mean per the 5 pm track, it could track within (to the West side) the cone and the center could still miss landfall West of the island, so per the NHC it is well within the realm of possibility

[Joe4alb]

Looks to be the strongest she has been yet. What an unbelievable IR image.

[NorthHillsWx]

I will say if this gets to about 79W it would have the chance to miss wide left given the forecast angle of recurve 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I mean per the 5 pm track, it could track within (to the West side) the cone and the center could still miss landfall West of the island, so per the NHC it is well within the realm of possibility

That it’s a possibility now is quite shocking. These wobbles we’ve been watching for days now have extreme meaning given 2/3 of Jamaica is now probably too far right to be reasonably at threat for a direct landfall. I’m not saying it will miss but NHC explicitly has it heading NNE now on its track and it has definitely dipped due west. It will not take much more at all to miss entirely 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

They kept it at 175mph. However the discussion says the inbound aircraft might find Melissa stronger than 150kts.

I'm late, but I was going to say that in a situation like this I think it's prudent for the NHC to wait until recon is there and collecting data to update intensity. They kind of got burned earlier in Melissa's intensification by declaring an intensity that was a little higher than obs showed (but still in the ballpark using the info they had at the time), and there's no reason to speculate this close to landfall.  

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now

From Treasure Beach to West End is right about 50 miles as the crow flies. Pretty much my second rule of chasing is no Island Roulette as Josh calls it because there's always the risk that the center will wobble enough to miss a landfall (which to be clear to everyone reading, would be awesome here). The problem here is the sharp turn. We've seen many a storm that once they start hooking poleward, they can lean hard enough into a NE heading that it changes a projected landfall zone. With Melissa gaining latitude now, I think it'll be extremely difficult to avoid a landfall. 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Aside from the storm already being.2 degrees further west than the 5 pm advisory, it sure looks to be moving faster than 3 mph, too.  

[NJwx85]

It seems almost a certainty at this point that Melissa reaches 79W. I wonder if the close proximity to the mountainous terrain in Jamaica is somehow impacting the steering flow. 

[Interstate]

It started to move NW but now on the latest loop it even looks like it is moving SW.

[WxWatcher007]

Without looking at anything other than possible landfall location, somewhere between Black River and Savanna la Mar would be my hypothetical chase zone with White House (just inland) as the target/staging area.

[JakkelWx]

Easily some of the best footage I've seen of hurricane eye penetration.

https://fixupx.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411

[Windspeed]

Melissa leveled off earlier ~906 mb. But I think we should be prepared that Melissa may be driving down pressure further now. The wider -90°C strong banding rings are suggestive of intensifying banding, but without any degradation of eye symmetry here or significant contraction, it's indicative of some mergers of the outer band into a portion of the inner eyewall. If that is the case, we may be looking at a sub 900 mb run tonight prior to landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Melissa leveled off earlier ~906 mb. But I think we should be prepared that Melissa may be driving down pressure further now. The wider -90°C strong banding rings are suggestive of intensifying banding, but without any degradation of eye symmetry here or significant contraction, it's indicative of some mergers of the outer band into a portion of the inner eyewall. If that is the case, we may be looking at a sub 900 mb run tonight prior to landfall.
 

I posted earlier that absent an ERC we probably see the peak tonight. Looks like we have dual recon flights inbound so we're going to know a lot soon. I'd be surprised if Melissa hasn't intensified more. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now

This epic modeling failure would be amazingly great news. Do you think this is a realistic possibility? Keep moving west!

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

This epic modeling failure would be amazingly great news. Do you think this is a realistic possibility? Keep moving west!

even a near miss would be bad for Montego Bay-they'd still get into the hurricane wind field not to mention the flooding which is baked in regardless

[WxWatcher007]

I saw this graphic earlier and it really speaks to just how there are levels to this, even among C5s. Even Gabby being on the list shows how impacts increase exponentially based on the intensity of a major hurricane. 

[Radtechwxman]

It's really looking like it could barely clip the west side of Jamaica at this point. Most if not all models had the ne turn by now didn't they? Melissa seems to be doing it's own thing and defying models. Definitely not evolving at all how I expected track wise. Way more west than I ever expected. 

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1982917665669669192?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
 

[BooneWX]

Wow.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

23 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Wow.


.

Might be most photogenic eye photos from recon in history