Hurricane Melissa

[BlizzardNole]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast 

Especially with such a compact system.  Look how small the hurricane force winds area is!  If it managed to get just a little more west before it turns it would be hugely helpful for Jamaica

[Jefflaw77]

So what’s the latest on where it’s going? Is it going to make a hard right turn and go north soon- because it it doesn’t - I dunno.  When’s the turn supposed to to happen?

[ValpoVike]

3 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

So what’s the latest on where it’s going? Is it going to make a hard right turn and go north soon- because it it doesn’t - I dunno.  When’s the turn supposed to to happen?

It looks like it is starting now from last several frames of satellite.  It seems to have slowed down significantly.

[ATDoel]

4 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

So what’s the latest on where it’s going? Is it going to make a hard right turn and go north soon- because it it doesn’t - I dunno.  When’s the turn supposed to to happen?

It's already turning 

[olafminesaw]

Pressure still dropping

[Eskimo Joe]

Welp

 

 

[NJwx85]

It doesn’t appear to be turning yet. What you saw was a wobble back to the North to counteract the wobble South and maintain the mean motion West. It’s moving at 3mph. The steering flow is weak. The ridge to the North will gradually weaken thanks to the trough that’s building into the Southeast US. As it weakens, Melissa will feel the weakness and gradually turn North.

[CTWeatherFreak]

4 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

It looks like it is starting now from last several frames of satellite.  It seems to have slowed down significantly.

Its been moving at 3mph all morning.  If it slowed any more it would be standing still.

[ValpoVike]

Just now, CTWeatherFreak said:

Its been moving at 3mph all morning.  If it slowed any more it would be standing still.

Yes, should have said westward progress.  It seems to have started wobbling south and a bit north rather than westward.  But, definitely hard to tell.

[NoCORH4L]

14 hours ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Yep.  a bit of southerly component this evening.  Also, it appears to have increased its forward speed a bit.

Small chance Melissa gets far enough west before re-curving and just misses Jamaica to the west if this movement persist a bit longer than expected. 

Was it forecast to turn already

[Interstate]

Looks stationary to me.

[Floydbuster]

 

[WxWatcher007]

This is as impressive a dropsonde as you'll ever see. Caveats about instantaneous gusts yada yada. 

 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 16:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Name: Melissa
Storm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 27

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.4N 78.1W
Location: 141 statute miles (226 km) to the SW (217°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Marsden Square: 044 ( About )
 

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level	Geo. Height	Air Temp.	Dew Point	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1000mb	This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
927mb (27.38 inHg)	Surface (Sea Level)	25.0°C (77.0°F)	25.0°C (77°F)	340° (from the NNW)	163 knots (188 mph)
925mb	17m (56 ft)	24.4°C (75.9°F)	24.4°C (76°F)	345° (from the NNW)	178 knots (205 mph)
850mb	756m (2,480 ft)	20.6°C (69.1°F)	20.5°C (69°F)	45° (from the NE)	181 knots (208 mph)
700mb	2,427m (7,963 ft)	Other data not available.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:44Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 45° (NE) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 16.42N 78.14W
- Time: 15:44:32Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 16.34N 78.29W
- Time: 15:49:01Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 5° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 174 knots (200 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 65° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 125 knots (144 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 707mb to 927mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 152 gpm - 2 gpm (499 geo. feet - 7 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 350° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 185 knots (213 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 40001
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level	Air Temperature	Dew Point
927mb (Surface)	25.0°C (77.0°F)	25.0°C (77°F)
924mb	24.2°C (75.6°F)	24.2°C (76°F)
910mb	23.2°C (73.8°F)	23.2°C (74°F)
850mb	20.6°C (69.1°F)	20.5°C (69°F)
729mb	15.6°C (60.1°F)	15.6°C (60°F)
720mb	16.6°C (61.9°F)	13.3°C (56°F)
702mb	15.0°C (59.0°F)	12.8°C (55°F)

 

Significant Wind Levels
Level	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
927mb (Surface)	340° (from the NNW)	163 knots (188 mph)
926mb	340° (from the NNW)	164 knots (189 mph)
925mb	345° (from the NNW)	179 knots (206 mph)
922mb	345° (from the NNW)	194 knots (223 mph)
920mb	345° (from the NNW)	197 knots (227 mph)
917mb	345° (from the NNW)	193 knots (222 mph)
914mb	350° (from the N)	176 knots (203 mph)
912mb	0° (from the N)	185 knots (213 mph)
905mb	5° (from the N)	194 knots (223 mph)
890mb	15° (from the NNE)	159 knots (183 mph)
881mb	25° (from the NNE)	182 knots (209 mph)
873mb	25° (from the NNE)	164 knots (189 mph)
868mb	30° (from the NNE)	170 knots (196 mph)
864mb	30° (from the NNE)	166 knots (191 mph)
860mb	35° (from the NE)	170 knots (196 mph)
858mb	40° (from the NE)	183 knots (211 mph)
854mb	45° (from the NE)	177 knots (204 mph)
850mb	45° (from the NE)	181 knots (208 mph)
811mb	85° (from the E)	155 knots (178 mph)
707mb	125° (from the SE)	167 knots (192 mph)

 

[Floydbuster]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

[ATDoel]

30 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Its been moving at 3mph all morning.  If it slowed any more it would be standing still.

The last several center fixes by recon show a slowdown and northward turn.  The turn is happening.

[WEATHER53]

It seems line many of the  past skim along the southern coast moving west and rarely barrel  into Jamaica  with a north or nw move

[RU848789]

Thought this tweet from Ryan Maue was interesting, contrasting how Dorian (2019) had Dvorak numbers of T 6.5 vs. T 8.0 for Melissa, while Dorian had 160-knot winds from observations, while Melissa is "only" at 145-knots..  Basically, one can't just go by satellite data, as real observations don't always line up.  Hopefully, future recon flights won't be restricted due to turbulence (assuming they can be made safely).  Still haven't figured out how to have tweets show up in preview mode.  

https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1982844394022789254

[NoCORH4L]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It seems line many of the  past skim along the southern coast moving west and rarely barrel  into Jamaica  with a north or nw move

Maybe it's friction with the land keeping it going west?

[HKY_WX]

Kinda looks like the turn has happened or is in the process of happening now. Josh is camped out somewhere near Treasure beach i think, he usually has a good feel for where these things landfall. I like that area but just a bit west (I'm assuming he's trying to get in the eastern eyewall).

[lee59]

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

[Windspeed]

Thought this tweet from Ryan Maue was interesting, contrasting how Dorian (2019) had Dvorak numbers of T 6.5 vs. T 8.0 for Melissa, while Dorian had 160-knot winds from observations, while Melissa is "only" at 145-knots..  Basically, one can't just go by satellite data, as real observations don't always line up.  Hopefully, future recon flights won't be restricted due to turbulence (assuming they can be made safely).  Still haven't figured out how to have tweets show up in preview mode.  
https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1982844394022789254

Dorian was embedded in higher background pressures. You have to take into account the position and surrounding environment. That's why we don't go by a strict pressure to wind chart. Also, the size of the vorticity's radius of maximum wind (RMI) matters as well.

[hazwoper]

Just now, lee59 said:

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

Again.  For the entire island flooding rains will be the main impact causing mass casualties.  The wind is only part of the story.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

If an ERC happens, windfield expands. It’s almost fair to say the “best case scenario” from the wind and surge aspect is for Melissa to landfall with no ERC before landfall. If an ERC occurs, that tight window of Cat4/Cat5 5 winds will double or triple in size. Also, the storm surge would compound and grow higher.

[ATDoel]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Fortunately for Jamaica the extreme winds only go out about 8 miles from the center. Kingston the capitol may not get into any hurricane force winds but strong tropical storm force winds seems likely. Of course everything depends on eventual path.

While they're still in the cone so still need to be cautious, it is looking good for Kingston from a wind perspective.  Unfortunately they're still on the wet side and mudslides are devastating.  

[Windspeed]

Again.  For the entire island flooding rains will be the main impact causing mass casualties.  The wind is only part of the story.

We can really hammer this home. Best case scenario is the trough lifting Melissa out fast. Actually, this track has unfolded better than some of the model runs a few days ago that had the slow down and drift west we are seeing this morning occurring just off the southern coast in much closer proximity before turning inland. Hopefully, Melissa's core won't spend too much time over the island on Tuesday. It will still be a catastrophic impact, and mudflows off the ridges and down into low-lying areas is the most dangerous aspect of the event.

[HKY_WX]

Rainfall wise, the entire island is screwed which is the biggest killer in tropical systems. That portion will be pretty epic. The wind damage (at least the extreme portion of it) will likely be confined to the central and western end of the island.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

906mb in W/SW quadrant

[Windspeed]

My goodness...

https://bsky.app/profile/jeremydehartwx.bsky.social/post/3m46sngepdc2r

[WEATHER53]

46 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Maybe it's friction with the land keeping it going west?

I think they don’t want to die unless absolutely driven inland 

[olafminesaw]

Definitely making the turn