Hurricane Melissa

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength?

The only one I could find  that made a sharp turn was Mitch, didn't seem to significantly weaken when making the turn, but did weaken gradually not too long after. Matthew maintained Cat 4 strength well after the turn, but did weaken slightly 

[Windspeed]

The reason I thought they were missing the NE eyewall a few posts ago is due to this. It appears they flew through the more eastern eyewall than the NE quadrant and might have even missed the center of the eye here. But then I had to remind myself of that pesky parallax positoning of the satellite image.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

She’s already passing 78 W. I think the western part of the island and places like Montego Bay could have issues. Basically 12z guidance turns it N now, but I don’t see signs of that quite yet. 

Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba

It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast 

[NJwx85]

As others have said, Melissa is currently moving South of due West again. 

[HKY_WX]

Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

WOW!!! Between passes, gusts go from 194kts to 210kts.

In the more recent dropsonde, notice how the temperature and dewpoint lines zigzag at the bottom. This means the dropsonde rotated and touched all 4 quads of the eye.

Melissa is in extremely rare air, officially the 3rd highest gusts ever recorded by recon hunters.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

907mb

[hawkeye_wx]

It's not 907 mb.  The latest recon passes found ~914 mb.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's not 907 mb.  The latest recon passes found ~914 mb.

Adjusted to 907mb

[olafminesaw]

33 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating.

In fact, too soon to say but that may be starting now. Westward progress halted the last few frames and wobbled South

[WxSynopsisDavid]

[olafminesaw]

[WxWatcher007]

I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning.

[Morris]

That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m guessing we have slightly more intensification reflected on the 11am, but idk. This was easily a 5 in my book on that first pass early this morning.

I think at this juncture, given the pristine environment until landfall and how healthy Melissa is, it’s hard to fathom any additional intensification. Melissa is making a serious run at sub-900 pressure in a tight window before landfall.

[cptcatz]

Looks like it's bottoming out with this latest pass. Pressure still around 910 and FL wind still at 156 kt.

[ATDoel]

2 minutes ago, Morris said:

That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... 

ignore any of the SFMR readings, they aren't reliable, the NHC isn't using them at all.

[nvck]

3 minutes ago, Morris said:

That 170 kts unflagged SFMR... 

Wow

[dan11295]

6z HAFS-A model which has handled Melissa very well intensity and movement wise, bottoms out of 906 mb between 6-9z Tuesday with 913 mb at landfall

West movement has ceased on satellite. Based on all the models and forecast, the north turn should be imminent.

[beanskip]

HAFS-B track is sure off -- the 6z run showed Melissa crossing 17N before even getting to 78W, with northern movement occuring between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. That didn't happen.

HAFS-A had the storm still shy of 78W at 11 am

Per satellite, looks like the storm has made it to 78.2W

Probably just within-track-error noise, but with much more westward progress, the turn north would keep the storm pretty close to the western tip of the island.

[Brian D]

This thing could absolutely destroy Jamaica. Pray for it to go around either side, and weaken at the same time. Incredible storm!

[WxWatcher007]

11:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27
Location: 16.4°N 78.2°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 908 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

 

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
 
Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite
imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded
in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The
hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the
eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the
Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central
pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after 
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.
 
The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best
estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt.  The mid-level ridge
north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moves eastward through the southeastern United States.  This should
cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at
a continued slow forward speed.  After 24 h, Melissa should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the
mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the
forecast period.  On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will
be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross
eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near
or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.  After
that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday
night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the
previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models.
 
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa
significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa
making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both
categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica,
a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear
should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to
be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba.  Once over the Atlantic,
stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa
is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast
period.  The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the
previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:  Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have
the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher
elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday.  This will result in
extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and
communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening
storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast
through Tuesday.
 
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic:  Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek.  In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
3. Eastern Cuba:  Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night.   Preparations should be
rushed to completion.
 
4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 16.4N  78.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 16.9N  78.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 17.8N  77.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 19.1N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 20.8N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 23.0N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 25.9N  71.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  31/1200Z 34.3N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 42.8N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

[Morris]

912 mb dropsonde with 36 kts

[nycwinter]

should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading?

[SolidIcewx]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

should not the winds be stronger with such a low pressure reading?

Takes time to catch up

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Takes time to catch up

Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad.

[ATDoel]

16 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Also, Melissa is not a large hurricane but rather a small and compact hurricane. The eye is also small too, and the compact system and pinhole eye means the area of maximized winds is small. It’s possible recon missed the max in the NE quad.

Another factor is that it really isn't moving.  A storm's movement speed adds to it's max wind speed.  If nothing changes at all the wind speed will come up a bit once it gets moving north.

[cptcatz]

26 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Was able to grab a recent radar image. No signs of ERC 

Almost looks like a giant supercell you'd see in Oklahoma