Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[kat5hurricane]

No matter what the final solution shows, the NAM took a big step towards the GFS which is what we want to see.

[EasternLI]

Nammy making some really nice moves...

[nycsnow]

Tucked in, folks do we have a nam bomb brewing????

[milleand]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

HR 63

really goes negative here, wow 

[MJO812]

[SI Mailman]

Can’t wait to get Nam’d in the next 24 hours

[NJwx85]

H5 on the NAM looks good. it digs a bit less which is better in this case and the trough is stronger and more negatively tilted. 

 

[nycsnow]

[NJwx85]

Pretty close to textbook for a big Noreaster. 

[NJwx85]

[EastonSN+]

Closed off and stalled too quick again BUT later than 6z which allowed the storm to gain a little latitude. One more delay and we are good.

[nycsnow]

[WeatherGeek2025]

nam is going to tuck next run watch

[njwx7]

Wherever this ultimately tracks, it's becoming clear that the precip cutoff on the NW side of this is going to be brutal.

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nam is going to tuck next run watch

971 low. Insane.

[brooklynwx99]

NAM looks better with the backside vort phase, which is a big deal

[NJwx85]

Bid deformation band incoming. Still looks like a Central Jersey special but this is well North of the last run.

[nycsnow]

Just now, njwx7 said:

Wherever this ultimately tracks, it's becoming clear that the precip cutoff on the NW side of this is going to be brutal.

I think a 971 low would have a bigger precip field 

[Brian5671]

6z had nothing north of ACY and now it's up to NYC

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

NAM looks better with the backside vort phase, which is a big deal

Just needs to gain a little latitude.

[nycsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Just needs to gain a little latitude.

It will long range nam and jus took a huge jump

 

[MJO812]

Slow moving system

[EastonSN+]

Lol I get 2 inches. NAM beyond 48 hours so not as much weight as GFS and EURO yet.

[RU848789]

Yes, we've been NAM-ed. Huge to see even if it's a bit out of its range (the important changes were mostly earlier).  

[NJwx85]

The reason for the sharp cutoff on the NW side is because the storm stacks and occludes around 12z on Monday. We could use another 50-75 mile shift NW to get into the high end stuff. You're also looking at near blizzard conditions for Long Island and coastal NJ.

[David-LI]

Not a blizzard but definitely Winter Storm Warning criteria for the city metro with a general 8-10".

[jm1220]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Lol I get 2 inches. NAM beyond 48 hours so not as much weight as GFS and EURO yet.

It’s adjusting. Rehoboth Beach isn’t getting 36” lol. 

[MJO812]

Fv3 with a huge trend north

[Brian5671]

watches by this afternoon for some areas

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

watches by this afternoon for some areas

i'd go with Blizzard warnings for NYC and east!