February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[LeesburgWx]

It’s getting brutal in here

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Fair. I just never really bought into the northern track because I wanted to wait until it got within 100 hrs. Sure I got excited for a brief moment when euro shifted NW, but I wanted to wait until it showed the same shift for 3 consecutive runs. It didn’t this time. Next week is a weaker event that goes on a more W-E trajectory, a different type of event that isn’t really comparable to this weekend. 

Well you’re a met, I take what you say seriously. Imma track obviously. The Euro just spooked me. 

[Heisy]

Sounds familiar.

Heh yea, but I would say that this event is a lot less complicated than others.

[GreyHat]

35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I would argue that the sleet glacier might have nudged the impact of this past storm to major. I know the amounts won't echo that - but the impacts relating to the bitter cold after I think edge this upwards. 

Yeah, I agree. We are still have icy roads in the development and the back roads to work from Delaware to the main road are still hazardous.  That's mainly due to the sun not shining on them, so the material the road department puts down will take time. You can walk on the snow and quite funny watching the beagle try run down a rabbit as they slide across.

[mitchnick]

What haunts me is the weeklies. BN temps for every week thru early March, but BN or well BN precip 2/2-2/15. We get to normal the remaining weeks. Whatever falls thru 2/15 has a high probability of being snow, which is obviously the good news. Getting it to precipitate is the challenge. But, on the bright side, we "may" end with a Niño-like mid-Feb thru early March with only a little bit of luck needed.

All this is based on both Euro and Cfs2 weeklies.

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Fair. I just never really bought into the northern track because I wanted to wait until it got within 100 hrs. Sure I got excited for a brief moment when euro shifted NW, but I wanted to wait until it showed the same shift for 3 consecutive runs. It didn’t this time. Next week is a weaker event that goes on a more W-E trajectory, a different type of event that isn’t really comparable to this weekend. 

Yeah, I think next week is a far better setup percentage wise to get us some snow. I never liked this week because it was an all or nothing and we needed so many things to go right to get it to work. Meanwhile next week just needs a decent wave track which is something we could possibly get. 

[osfan24]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What haunts me is the weeklies. BN temps for every week thru early March, but BN or well BN precip 2/2-2/15. We get to normal the remaining weeks. Whatever falls thru 2/15 has a high probability of being snow, which is obviously the good news. Getting it to precipitate is the challenge. But, on the bright side, we "may" end with a Niño-like mid-Feb thru early March with only a little bit of luck needed.

All this is based on both Euro and Cfs2 weeklies.

Have they been all that accurate with precip to date, though? I feel like they called for a very wet January and we got the one big precip storm and that was it.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Have they been all that accurate with precip to date, though? I feel like they called for a very wet January and we got the one big precip storm and that was it.

They may have had 1 week AN, but not the month. Because they are daily, they can jump around with the best of them as we know. The oldest precip forecast at the free Euro site goes back to the 1/7 forecast. Here's the link. More recent forecasts can be found by clicking on the triangle icon to the top, right of the map. The accuracy of the forecasts probably depend on who's looking at the map! Lol

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202601070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202601190000

[mitchnick]

This weekend's storm is causing such low heights on the Icon that the threat is going to have a hard time climbing north. It needs to get outta there faster. What a way to screw us twice. Assuming it's right.

[LP08]

ICON at 12z looks awfully similar to where we started for this weekends storm.  Gets the southern part of the forum pretty good.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

It’s getting brutal in here

It was brutal in here at the end of January 2010. If I recall correctly, Ji had a meltdown of ridiculous proportions then everything went magical.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It was brutal in here at the end of January 2010. If I recall correctly, Ji had a meltdown of ridiculous proportions then everything went magical.

I’m not sure what people are upset about, we just had a major winter storm. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

ICON at 12z looks awfully similar to where we started for this weekends storm.  Gets the southern forum pretty good.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON at 12z looks awfully similar to where we started for this weekends storm.  Gets the southern forum pretty good.

The north sucks for snow. I’m moving south. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The north sucks for snow. I’m moving south. 

My mom is down in Marion, SC.  They are excited.  4 to 8+   The whole town maybe has 1 plow they probably have to borrow for another jurisdiction.   They'll be closed for a few days.   

I almost chased down there but then I remembered, I'd have to be in that town.

[87storms]

Regarding the fish storm…it takes a different climate pattern to get a snowstorm in Va beach. If they’re getting snow, we’re in trouble in Frederick. Let that one go.

Next week is more trackable, though that ridge out west looks like a monster brewing. Interested to see how much that impacts those BN projections.

[DMAC98]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This weekend's storm is causing such low heights on the Icon that the threat is going to have a hard time climbing north. It needs to get outta there faster. What a way to screw us twice. Assuming it's right.

Yeah this would absolutely suck, definite Deja Vu vibes goin' on here. 5-6 days out tho so there is time for us to eventually make this work in our favor (famous last words)

[wxmeddler]

13 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’m not sure what people are upset about, we just had a major winter storm. 

The weenies got a taste of meat after feeding on veggie scraps for years and are rabidly hunting for more.

Edit: Do I also consider myself in this category. Yes. Don’t @ me.

[Kay]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

The weenies got a taste of meat after feeding on veggie scraps for years and are rabidly hunting for more.

Edit: Do I also consider myself in this category. Yes. Don’t @ me.

Haha. I get both points of view. Raging appetite for more! But also..can't be mega depressed right now because *waves in direction of glistening bulletproof snowpack*

[adelphi_sky]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’m not sure what people are upset about, we just had a major winter storm. 

I think it was partly due to the idea of snow on snow which is even more rare than a MECS. A lot of arctic cold is being wasted on clear dry days and we're marching towards sun angles and marginal temps every passing day. Still hard to believe we're still in Jan though. Lots of winter left.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z NBM

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NBM

id 

Is it just me or is this product virtually useless?  Every time it gets posted in here it's like a crucial step behind the good models.

[Weather Will]

Pi

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Is it just me or is this product virtually useless?  Every time it gets posted in here it's like a crucial step behind the good models.

It is a blend of previous runs so it is always a step behind. But I use it when I am only half watching to see if anything is going on...

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Is it just me or is this product virtually useless?  Every time it gets posted in here it's like a crucial step behind the good models.

             The mean has very limited value at this range, because a few snowy ensemble members can skew it.    The probabilistic output is far more useful, but I'm not sure how easy it is to find that on the web.

[stormtracker]

Let's see what shit the GFS gets into.  H5 is different  S/w looks slightly stronger

[TSSN+]

Ai gfs is a nice hit but it’s sinking south each run so I’m sure soon it will be a miss south. 

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, DMAC98 said:

Yeah this would absolutely suck, definite Deja Vu vibes goin' on here. 5-6 days out tho so there is time for us to eventually make this work in our favor (famous last words)

 

This seems fine? No need to panic yet as it’s still a good depiction. 

[TSSN+]

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Ai gfs is a nice hit but it’s sinking south each run so I’m sure soon it will be a miss south. 

ya that trend has to stop asap

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

ya that trend has to stop asap

It won't.