Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in.

One of the top 10 posts in this thread.  100%.

Where the secondary develops, how it tracks and how fast it can potentially halt the mid level warming will be important to duration of event and how much snow might fall after the mix perhaps goes back to snow.  Ideally this low will develop off the VA/DE coast and move towards Nantucket and Block Island gradually deepening as it goes.  This might be asking a lot though.  We'll see.  Either way there will be a good dump of snow and sleet to ice it up.  The snow pack will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  At this point, pending future model runs I'm expecting sleet to get mixed in as far north as my area.

Just don't like it when the 700/850 are so far NW, at least initially.

[bluewave]

Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet potential later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side.

 

[donsutherland1]

For reference concerning snow-liquid ratios with storms that had 1"-2" QPF, as currently shown on the NBM:

So, assuming a ratio of 11:1-13:1 during the height of the storm (0.50"-0.75" QPF), NYC seems in very good shape to see at least 6" of snow and well-positioned for even higher amounts, even if sleet mixes in or a transition to sleet occurs. This storm remains on track to be the biggest storm New York City has seen in nearly 4-5 years.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Uniblab said:

Nooo not Staten island lol

toms river i meant

[jm1220]

31 minutes ago, mob1 said:

It's just a blend of all models 

I think there’s an in house model group the NWS uses for this but someone with more information can add further. 

[Nibor]

 

 

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet potential later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side.

 

Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro.  In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, MANDA said:

One of the top 10 posts in this thread.  100%.

Where the secondary develops, how it tracks and how fast it can potentially halt the mid level warming will be important to duration of event and how much snow might fall after the mix perhaps goes back to snow.  Ideally this low will develop off the VA/DE coast and move towards Nantucket and Block Island gradually deepening as it goes.  This might be asking a lot though.  We'll see.  Either way there will be a good dump of snow and sleet to ice it up.  The snow pack will not be going anywhere anytime soon.  At this point, pending future model runs I'm expecting sleet to get mixed in as far north as my area.

Just don't like it when the 700/850 are so far NW, at least initially.

Yep, seen it before too where if 750-800mb are wrecked by the initial primary lows hanging on too long it can take a while to flip back to snow. But the coastal storm evolution is the complex part of this that we have to wait and see on. It’s looking good for at least 4-6 hours or so of heavy snow before any warm mid level air arrives. 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Those amounts look pretty reasonable and I would agree with a 6-8" floor for the NYC Metro.  In my mind that would include the Rt. 78 and 80 corridor through NJ.

yup, Im at MMU and I'm thinking 6-10 is a good call right now

[Brian5671]

49 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

why and where ? and what evidence do you have to back up that statement  other than warm model runs 3 days in advance of the storm ?

Climo.   How many storms do we get that are 100% snow.  This is a SWFE which often flips to non snow at the end

[WeatherGeek2025]

are we about to get NAM'd?

[winterwarlock]

38 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Stole this from NE @WeatherWillynot sure how accurate this model is NBM

Dont understand why the nbm is used. Seems very out of wack 3-4 days in advance

[NJwx85]

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are:

2/18/21

12/25/02

12/15/13

2/11/86

12/17/20

 

3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are:

2/18/21

12/25/02

12/15/13

2/11/86

12/17/20

 

3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

are we about to get NAM'd?

It wouldn’t be a legit winter storm if we didn’t have a NAMing.

[weatherpruf]

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are:
2/18/21
12/25/02
12/15/13
2/11/86
12/17/20
 
3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 

All lousy events out here so I hope
Not


.

[mob1]

Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are:

2/18/21

12/25/02

12/15/13

2/11/86

12/17/20

 

3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL 

12/17/20 might be a pretty good one at the end. Hopefully the snow comes in better than that one did-I ended up with 8” but was hoping for 12+ but the snow shield broke up so the warm mid level air advanced faster. 

[BoulderWX]

NAM Looks liek 6-10 @ HR 84 but next frame would introduce mixing

[SACRUS]

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro.

 

 

540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close.  546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow.  The devil is in the details.  The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond.

[Tatamy]

The NAM has a big time warm nose at 750 mb at 84 hours at 12z just to the south and west of the city.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Sleet line is fast approaching here, but what a thump!

6-10

[Snowlover11]

Man Nam is torchy. 

[qg_omega]

NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet.  Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago

[Brian5671]

Just now, qg_omega said:

NAM looks like every SWFE storm from the past 5 years, thump to sleet.  Crazy how this evolution changed from a few days ago

From suppression to mixing in 24 hrs...lol  At least we are getting the storm-suppression with 10 degree cold would have sucked royally

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Man Nam is torchy. 

Yep and I would not ignore it.

[SACRUS]

 

Snow/ sleet through 84

 

[Snowman92]

No model run should be ignored. Each one is correct to even a tiny extent.

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6-10

That 10 for immediate NYC region could be generous.