“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[TheSnowman]

Well, Let’s try This Again since it worked SO WELL LAST TIME!  (even though you guys freaked out about me starting a thread)  

 

Yes, Once Again I’m off on a trip for gigs, this time in NYC, leaving Saturday, and coming back Tuesday.  

And you know what happens when TheSnowman goes away while Losing his mind for a storm?  

The Models Continue to show a Monster Possible Right in the muster of that time frame, with the possibility of a Sub-970mb Low And 24”-36”.  The GFS, GEM, and UKIE are All on board as I type this.  The EURO has a strangled storm currently OTS; is it Still the dreaded Dr. NO?  

Let’s track A Potentially TRUE, Historic, Snowstorm and Blizzard.  Unlike that overrated SWFE you guys just had.    

[CoastalWx]

Cancelled 

[NorEastermass128]

I will be paying careful attention to timing. I’m supposed to fly out from Logan for work at 6pm Sunday. 

[NorEastermass128]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Cancelled 

Maybe just a gravity wave that screws RI, but buries the rest?

[cleetussnow]

Threadworthy.  A lot to discuss.  Let’s see if the AIs lead the pack.  

[dryslot]

He already porked WOR starting this, Lets see who else is screwed.

[Typhoon Tip]

This 06z mean is a bit of a reposition W compared to the prior 00z cycle.  Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous..  06z EPS mean.  Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in storm climo

[ariof]

48 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I will be paying careful attention to timing. I’m supposed to fly out from Logan for work at 6pm Sunday. 

I'm flying in from ORD at 2130 and would like to get in before all the flights are canceled if this verifies.

[Typhoon Tip]

So reminiscent. Like a favorite song. 

I recall the D6 MRF ensemble mean in the days before Apr 1997 looked just exactly like that, having those members along with uncertainty pulling W. Just looking at this and I’m taken back in time. 
… God I need to get laid 

[ineedsnow]

LFG!! 12z runs up 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ariof said:

I'm flying in from ORD at 2130 and would like to get in before all the flights are canceled if this verifies.

I think by the year 2130 airline flighting will have long become an outmoded method for transportation.
Go ahead and schedule the time away …

[ineedsnow]

ICON going wild just to the south at hr132.. lets see if it shunts east

[ineedsnow]

ICON a moderate hit.. would like to see this 75 miles north or so.. but a ways out

[ineedsnow]

[HoarfrostHubb]

Das Bier ist gut, oder?

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON a moderate hit.. would like to see this 75 miles north or so.. but a ways out

Not sure why I'm giving this particular model, at this kind of lead range, this much attention and energy but ... for shits and giggles,

this run is actually deeper and arguable a tick or two closer than the 12z run yesterday, which delivered monster snow totals.  This one just out at 12z this morning ... the only difference is that it is loading about half the QPF totals.  It almost smacks like whatever physics it uses, swaps out QPF mechanics for kinetic/cyclone power - and vice versa...

It's probably just internal physical idiosyncratic handling between those to particular runs.  Why the 00z was completely in a wholesale different universe and not a part of the conversation, altogether is beyond me - but I'm not an ICON specialist by any means...

[40/70 Benchmark]

ICON LBSW

[dryslot]

Need to weaken the confluence to the north of here on these next two
 

[TheSnowman]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Maybe just a gravity wave that screws RI, but buries the rest?

Wouldn’t be Surprised.  I’ll say it again and again; 4 TIMES this winter, people got more snow East And West And North And South of Me.  Impossible.  But here we are.  Last time was the Mini-Fujiwawa a week ago.  

 

12z:  And for 7 Runs In A Row in the GFS, There it Is!  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lock that icon run now. Unfortunately we in WCT know how these eventually go…later phase/stall that crushes EOR.

[ineedsnow]

GFS trying

[CoastalWx]

That’s a bomb on gfs 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s a bomb on gfs 

What a storm. Let's bring that about 50 miles northwest.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a bomb on gfs 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CT Rain said:

What a storm. Let's bring that about 50 miles northwest.

would probably have a death band further north with that

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a bomb on gfs 

Tblizz grabbing a 20 burger after declaring winter over last week. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a bomb on gfs 

Congrats on another 2fter this season…

[TheSnowman]

Bombs out over Mid-Atlantic and the Fish but the fact it’s still showing a SUB-970 Bomb run after run is so encouraging.  

 

Even with it out to Sea, it drops 15-20 hahaha.  

[NeonPeon]

The sublime expectation of happiness that is happiness itself. 

Just kidding, it's got to verify.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Tblizz grabbing a 20 burger after declaring winter over last week. 

Classic. 

It's looking like this one has legs. Those changes out west may be subtle but they've increased the explosive potential. Possible winter weather events Wednesday, Friday, and a nuke Sun/Mon? Busy busy week ahead.