This week, 12z comes out at 12:12 pm and is done by 1:00pm on SV.
News
ECMWF News
Submitted by mrwx on Wed, 2024-03-06 09:37
Faster Dissemination Management
New News on the Next European Model Upgrade
Optimizing the Speed Situation
The much faster delivery of the European ensemble started on Tuesday, March 5, with mixed results for StormVista map and data production.
Products were available much faster than ever before, however, issues such as out-of-order files and varying speeds in file type dissemination are requiring logic adjustments for future speed optimization.
StormVista's larger list of variable and map options are beneficial to clients, but they become a liability for processing speed. The ECMWF's faster delivery includes providing files out of order with significant delays at times for key files.
Missing Hour 45 (as happened on the first day) caused map production disruption, but it did not affect the 6-hour max/min data for city forecasts and degree day calculations.
However, when Hour 180 stalled, it did impact city/degree day calculations, allowing the maps to get ahead once the file arrived.
There were also issues when the various types of files (low vs. high resolution) also arrived out of order (low-res is typically faster, but not the case on the first day).
We are addressing each of these challenges and adjusting variable priorities to find ways to speed up delivery in these instances.
In Other Big News
Amid yesterday's chaotic situation (they initially flubbed the 6z roll out too), the ECMWF announced big changes to the next model upgrade:
New upgrade, Cycle 49r1, is now planned for October 2024
This is a significant delay from their typical June-July upgrade timing
They will make the operational (HRES) identical to the ENS control run
They will make this operational/control run available earlier than the ensemble (as they do now)
However, according to what they wrote yesterday, this new control run (operational) will run out to 15 days instead of 10
Not only did they change their intention to remove the operational, but they are now running it out further
The Cycle 50r1, planned for October 2025 will continue this earlier control run release out to 15 days