dryslot

Even the 06z Euro AI looks good.

-SN, 30/28°F

Its the furthest east of all guidance, I'm not sure what to make of that as i didn't follow how it has been this summer and only going on how it was last winter and it was off a bit then too.

It was more consolidated and tracked over 41/69 at 983mb.

Looked pretty similar to the 06z run

Looks like the 12z GFS is a tic or so west of 06z with the precip field, Bit stronger down to 983mb too.

Looks like GYX stole my forecast. Tuesday Snow, mainly after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 32. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%

The euro is trash, Toss.

We seem to be losing these consolidated solutions right now and getting waves of LP along the front.

Head fake?

It’s done that on a few cycles, It could be real as well.

18z ICON looks like it tracks the SLP over the elbow into the GOM.

Not often it isn’t zoinked, It’s entertaining, But pretty good at sniffing out the warm layers aloft in some of these.

DT’s map is going to

The euro is on the other end of the spectrum being the furthest South on modeling.

No bueno

12z Euro well east, Extreme SEMA and the cape see snow, Maybe 1-2" further west.

GYX .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview: Low pressure lifting into the Canadian Maritimes will drag a cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure builds in from the west and crests over the area Monday night. A progressive area of low pressure will track near southern New England Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning bringing accumulating snow to much of the area. High pressure builds in late Wednesday followed by an Arctic cold front crossing Thursday. Impacts: *The Tuesday evening commute likely see impacts from accumulating snowfall that could linger into Wednesday morning, particularly across the southern half of the area. Much of the forecast area south of the mountains will see the potential for several inches of accumulating snow starting around mid day Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday morning. Global models are in general agreement in the synoptic setup with a low amplitude trough lifting NE across the Mid Atlantic towards southern New England Tuesday night. However, subtle differences in the latitude and sharpness of the trough has resulted in a spread in the track and amplification of the surface low amongst deterministic guidance. A look at ensembles shows somewhat better agreement with loose clustering of low centers tracking near 40N/70W Tuesday evening. The lack of upstream blocking will lead to the surface low progressing ENE south of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday morning. This track will favor mostly snow with DESI showing probabilities of greater than 3 inches along and south of the foothills around 50-60 percent. The parent trough to this system is currently in the Gulf of Alaska and will move onshore within better sampling of RAOBs some time late tonight into Sunday. This will bear watching over the coming days as the more amplified solutions will bring the potential for near Warning level snowfall if they were to verify. Low pressure quickly exits into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday afternoon with high pressure briefly building in from the southwest. High pressure will be suppressed south Thursday as an Arctic cold front takes aim at northern New England.

Going to jump off the ladder?

I had mentioned 4-8" to a few the other day, No need to change that right now.

Rip a few chords!

Huge actually lol, It has a bit of a hybrid look to it, Almost a bit SWFE ish on some of these runs, The 12z Euro should be of interest to see what it does.

Around the 5th is the next opportunity.

Just based it off of the track, I don't generally dive very deep into the GGEM.

It was similar to the 12z GFS.