dryslot

Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam.

Being in the coastal plain here, When the temps are marginal and we get wet snow, Its usually 6-7:1 based on measurement and LE, 10:1 is a good baseline.

Good way to learn about different snow situations for your location is to take good measurements and do core samples melt to get the LE then do the math for the ratios.

I think kuchie is just a straight 22:1.

That's how i figure totals by projected qpf to ratios for past events that are similar.

That will depend on the location, Some areas even though they have higher qpf numbers, The ratios will be lower.

06z GFS on bufkit 0.73" qpf for here, You can do more with less qpf because of ratios 260126/0700Z 49 03010KT 9.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 18:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 260126/0800Z 50 02010KT 9.2F SNOW 25:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 18:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0 260126/0900Z 51 02011KT 9.6F SNOW 29:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 20:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 260126/1000Z 52 02009KT 9.9F SNOW 28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 20:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 260126/1100Z 53 02010KT 10.3F SNOW 28:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 21:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0 260126/1200Z 54 02010KT 10.5F SNOW 30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 21:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260126/1300Z 55 02010KT 10.7F SNOW 30:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 21:1| 13.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.65 100| 0| 0 260126/1400Z 56 02010KT 11.6F SNOW 28:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 21:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0 260126/1500Z 57 02010KT 13.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 100| 0| 0 260126/1600Z 58 02011KT 15.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 0| 0| 0 260126/1700Z 59 02011KT 16.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 0| 0| 0 260126/1800Z 60 02010KT 16.2F SNOW 23:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260126/1900Z 61 01010KT 16.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0| 0 260126/2000Z 62 01009KT 16.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 21:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 0| 0| 0 260126/2100Z 63 02009KT 15.2F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 260126/2200Z 64 02008KT 14.3F SNOW 17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 14.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.70 100| 0| 0 260126/2300Z 65 01007KT 13.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 15.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.71 100| 0| 0 260127/0000Z 66 36006KT 13.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 21:1| 15.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260127/0100Z 67 36005KT 13.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 260127/0200Z 68 01004KT 13.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 21:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0

It would have to be H7 if your getting precip shut off, That was what i was thinking.

Maybe they anticipate a further north trend?

We should start to get into HREF range today.

Sums it up in a nutshell, Some areas may end up under the dry slot. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION: Forecast is still on track for a significant winter storm Sunday and Monday across the forecast area. We`re entering the time range where we can start picking out smaller features that can make a difference in snow rates and totals for the event. The primary messaging stands firm: significant travel impacts can be expected Sunday afternoon/evening and persisting through at least Monday evening. Increasing winds through the period will easily blow and drift the fluffier snow character, challenging snow removal in open and unprotected stretches of roadway. One smaller scale feature to watch amid the larger system will be ocean effect enhancement along the southern ME coast and NH Seacoast. Given the very cold airmass preceding the storm, the relatively warmer waters will provide some low level instability harboring locally stronger lift. Onshore flow Sunday evening through much of the night would bring some snow enhancement along the I95 corridor in York and Rockingham Co. Flow becomes more parallel to the coast come Monday morning, reducing this added effect, but greater storm dynamics will still be in play. Mesoscale banding will be another feature to watch amid a very expansive precip shield through Monday. 850/700mb frontogenesis depicted in NAM/GFS runs is fairly progressive as it lifts through New England Sunday evening. While deterministic and not set in stone, this can provide good insight into how quickly a stronger band of snow could transit the region. The current timeline overlaps with ensemble guidance suggesting heavy snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during the overnight hours. Finally, a factor that could hamper snow accumulations. Overall trend in the storm has been an earlier onset and slow northern crawl. Despite the abundant and anomalous moisture content with this system, the lifecycle of low pressure systems usually features a dry slot contingent on the low`s maturity. This northern crawl the past few days has brought this feature closer to the forecast area, nosing in from southern New England. This would bring a period of less efficient snowfall. Still early to factor this in effectively for the forecast, but an item to watch.

Looks like some blowing and drifting in the cards Sunday Snow likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 11. Wind chill values as low as -6. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -8. Light northeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Monday Snow. High near 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Bowel?

Yes, 10-14” has been my call, I see no reason to change it.

Happy ending went away a few cycles back.

Its noise from here on out on modeling.

Yes, It was.

It looked like it would be brief though.

The nam is juiced.

Looks like it may be the SLP.

Yes, Maybe more then a tic.

Seriously? You have to ask?

Yeah, I know shocked.

Your PTSD should be good after this one.