dryslot

It’s at the end and the damage was already done.

And when I mention warmer it’s at the end but as I said earlier, It was the 06z euro and it only got as far as LI.

06z was a bit warmer.

Do the Euro

This one may not be to hard map actually, You can do a broad brush on the bulk of it.

As much as some won't like this, I agree, GFS right now is on the southern flank.

Retreating high is giving the room for north tics on this one.

Ultimately, Its going to come down to how far north at the surface does the SLP get to bring the mix line further north then being modeled right now, Euro gets it up to about LI after a front end thump.

If it did raindrops would be falling on many to the south, Not happening.

They changed the AFD format to segments up here, KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION: Recent guidance trend has to bring a quick but strong area of low pressure through the TN Valley Sunday before consolidating off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. This track, which has trended northward quickly over the past 24 hours, presents a snowy outcome for the forecast area into the beginning of next week. Amid a cold air mass, an all snow outcome is fairly certain barring any continued northward shifts. Will be monitoring forcing, how long precipitation is present, and any additional shifts in the low`s track to hone in on forecast totals. At this range, swings and shifts are not uncommon. Will want to watch timing of sharp trough arriving through the Midwest Sunday evening. This could orient mid level jet coupling to further deepen the parent low as jet strengthens across the Mid-South. With a lot of strong features (high and low) to materialize over the CONUS over the next 48 hours, shifts in thoughts are likely, but accumulating snow is a likely outcome.

1"

Probably back to 2015, Might have to ask Will that question.........lol

Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling.

Hopefully far enough where were not on the northern fringe so when we get the last minute messenger tics were still in the middle of guidance.

No, I have not gone ice fishing this year so far, I'm going smelting the next 2 weeks then riding up north.

Tightening cluster just east of the cape on the 18z EPS

Questions Kevin ask and you never answer.

I guess he doesn't listen to that nonsense, Although i'm closer to CNE.

At least he didn't cut off Maine at York county like DT does...........lol

Looks like you never trained him, Maybe it was Will with all that detail he gives.................

Maybe a bit of sleet then some snizzle on the end is typical in some of these for the areas that mix.

Typically the ceiling give or take 1-2" more, But there are other variables in play with duration, Moisture available and cold air.

Looks like it wants to morph more into a SWFE on some guidance, There is usually a ceiling with those on totals but nothing to really down play unless some were looking for something more substantial.

You'll be happy there verbatim this run.

Splitting hairs with 0.10" or so between the two, Looks good.