Sums it up in a nutshell, Some areas may end up under the dry slot.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
Forecast is still on track for a significant winter storm
Sunday and Monday across the forecast area. We`re entering the
time range where we can start picking out smaller features that
can make a difference in snow rates and totals for the event.
The primary messaging stands firm: significant travel impacts
can be expected Sunday afternoon/evening and persisting through
at least Monday evening. Increasing winds through the period
will easily blow and drift the fluffier snow character,
challenging snow removal in open and unprotected stretches of
roadway.
One smaller scale feature to watch amid the larger system will
be ocean effect enhancement along the southern ME coast and NH
Seacoast. Given the very cold airmass preceding the storm, the
relatively warmer waters will provide some low level
instability harboring locally stronger lift. Onshore flow Sunday
evening through much of the night would bring some snow
enhancement along the I95 corridor in York and Rockingham Co.
Flow becomes more parallel to the coast come Monday morning,
reducing this added effect, but greater storm dynamics will
still be in play.
Mesoscale banding will be another feature to watch amid a very
expansive precip shield through Monday. 850/700mb frontogenesis
depicted in NAM/GFS runs is fairly progressive as it lifts
through New England Sunday evening. While deterministic and not
set in stone, this can provide good insight into how quickly a
stronger band of snow could transit the region. The current
timeline overlaps with ensemble guidance suggesting heavy snow
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour during the overnight hours.
Finally, a factor that could hamper snow accumulations. Overall
trend in the storm has been an earlier onset and slow northern
crawl. Despite the abundant and anomalous moisture content with
this system, the lifecycle of low pressure systems usually
features a dry slot contingent on the low`s maturity. This
northern crawl the past few days has brought this feature closer
to the forecast area, nosing in from southern New England. This
would bring a period of less efficient snowfall. Still early to
factor this in effectively for the forecast, but an item to
watch.
