Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Prue11]

We better hope for a good thump on Li to reach 10-12”

[WeatherGeek2025]

The cold front is rolling through. You can feel it. It's windy and the temperature dropped like 3° rather than like 10 minutes.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Starting to think the result will be a very sharp gradient of snowfall amounts, something like 4-6" JFK, 6-8" NYC, 8-10" LGA, 10-12" Bronx, 12-14" White Plains and 14-18" lower Hudson valley. Those gradients will then run in a generally w.s.w. direction across NJ into e PA. The axis of heaviest snow still where I thought earlier, Allentown to Catskills to n/c CT to e/c MA. These sharp gradients will also show up on Long Island from south to north shore with a range from 4 to 10 inches, and in s CT, RI and se MA. If the storm begins colder than modelled then possibly these phase changes will hit later in the precip cycle, I would still expect the change-overs in some areas but snowfall totals could then be 2 or 3 inches higher before the phase changes. 

Somebody was asking about lightning during this event, would not be surprised if there was widespread thundersnow mid-day Sunday, about when the coastal low is deepening fastest.

Disagree. I think even JFK gets at least 8”. Maybe LGA gets 10”, but I don’t see JFK at 4 and LGA at 12”. It’s never happened before and doesn’t make sense here either. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

We better hope for a good thump on Li to reach 10-12”

Some of the short-term models are showing 2 to 3 in./h rates at times on Sunday. It doesn't take many hours of that to get near double digits.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't really consider far southern coastal New Jersey part of the forum. That's more for the mid Atlantic or the least the Philadelphia forum. 

Cape May is almost as far south as DC.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree. I think even JFK gets at least 8”. Maybe LGA gets 10”, but I don’t see JFK at 4 and LGA at 12”. It’s never happened before and doesn’t make sense here either. 

For trivia, the biggest daily snowfall difference between JFK and LGA is 8.5". On February 17, 2003, JFK saw 21.6" while LGA saw 13.1".

[ILoveWinter]

I’ve seen enough: 8-12 for Central Park

[JonClaw]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

The cold front is rolling through. You can feel it. It's windy and the temperature dropped like 3° rather than like 10 minutes.

Corona mesonet site just recorded a 2 degree drop in 5 minutes!

[sussexcountyobs]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

The cold front is rolling through. You can feel it. It's windy and the temperature dropped like 3° rather than like 10 minutes.

Yes it has. Down to 16.0 here already

[NorthShoreWx]

25 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just got back from the store.  All set here.

Where's the beer?

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

The cold front is rolling through. You can feel it. It's windy and the temperature dropped like 3° rather than like 10 minutes.

Yep, can definitely start to feel it. We still have some snow on the ground here so I guess this will count as snow on snow. Still a couple inches in my backyard. 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Wow, one can say it’s less exciting and still track. They’re not mutually exclusive. I know you’re overly sensitive MJO but maybe relax a bit. 

Have hope

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I’ve seen enough: 8-12 for Central Park

10.2 total sleet and snow will fall there. 8.5 will be the official incorrect total measurement. 

[NJwx85]

Latest 

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree. I think even JFK gets at least 8”. Maybe LGA gets 10”, but I don’t see JFK at 4 and LGA at 12”. It’s never happened before and doesn’t make sense here either. 

Yep, and I think Pivotal maps don’t count sleet as snow, so I could imagine there being up to a couple inches of sleet on top since sleet is a 3:1 liquid ratio. 0.6” of water as sleet would be almost 2”. 

[RDRY]

Maybe I'm blind, but I thought the 18z Euro was better everywhere.

[MANDA]

19 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Where's the beer?

They were cleaned out!

[the_other_guy]

This is the same 10-20 inch storm it has been for days…

[MJO812]

Sref better

[WestBabylonWeather]

Looking at weather.gov in shock 

the entire states of Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, NJ, Delaware, NY, CT, Massachusetts, and RI have winter storm warnings state wide 

[snywx]

35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest 

Very good map 

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Looking at weather.gov in shock 

the entire states of Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, NJ, Delaware, NY, CT, Massachusetts, and RI have winter storm warnings state wide 

You could drive from the Texas/Mexico border to north central Vermont right now and be under a WSW the entire way. Wild.

[RedSky]

DT says go with 18z Nam

[LVblizzard]

14 minutes ago, RedSky said:

DT says go with 18z Nam

Part of me thinks he’s just bitter that the storm trended to a sleet/ice storm for his area and now he’s rooting on an enormous north trend to spite the rest of I-95 too.

[SACRUS]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref better

 

 

And total QPF

 

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Latest 

It will bust badly in central jersey

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

It will bust badly in central jersey

nobody knows yet

[Blizzardo]

The leftover snow on my property is already frozen solid again! 

[Blizzardo]

C'mon NAM! I hope this is the time we get NAMd! Because we ain't been NAMd yet! 

And it's usually about this time frame! 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

It will bust badly in central jersey

You’re consistently the most pessimistic poster here so your comment isn’t surprising.