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  1. GFS seriously needs to be scrapped at this point. Just start over.
  2. The GFS and its illegitimate brother zig when the other models zag.
  3. Don't think it's much of a factor, but the Western ridge is getting beaten down a bit more by a system moving in.
  4. GFS finds the soft spot in the high pressure zone and attacks it.
  5. I'm considering freezing rain frozen precip, but yeah. No way this stays snow for the coast per the Euro.
  6. The SLP track is just slightly north of due east from 120 to 168, and stays south of NYC. That should keep this mostly frozen.
  7. They're the top mets. I'll pay it some mind.
  8. The new GFS 12z was on crack. That would be biblical.
  9. RDRY

    January 2019 Discussion

    Has the new GFS been better or worse than the current one? It seems to be much more erratic.
  10. RDRY

    January 2019 Discussion

    NP. Didn't take it that way. Anyway, a flatter pattern can work just fine with decent cold air to the north -- those storms are usually pretty easy to forecast a few days out. Less angst over coastal development timing, blocking, minute track adjustments, etc.
  11. RDRY

    January 2019 Discussion

    Nor should you. It was just an observation of a pattern we haven't seen much of in a while.
  12. RDRY

    January 2019 Discussion

    One things seems pretty clear this winter -- northward model adjustments will not be the rule of the day. Flat and fast flow.
  13. Has the new GFS been worse than the old one? If so, how can the NOAA make the switch?
  14. This was a perfect "storm" for commuter chaos. A mid-November forecast of an inch then rain right up until game time. Followed by early to mid afternoon inch-an-hour, sticking snows. The city had no chance on this one.