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  1. Severe storms here in Lenox, with a temp of 40. Bizarre.
  2. All sleet in Lenox. Not budging.
  3. I don't check the ensembles, but isn't the operational more reliable in the shorter-term?
  4. GFS has pulled a few coups this season, assuming the Dr. No mantle. It has to be factored in right now -- it's being incredibly consistent with this storm.
  5. That's mean. Because of their ownership foibles, the perception around the league is that they're the Knicks. But they actually have a very solid, balanced team this year.
  6. The 0z CMC had a closed low near the benchmark at 108 (even though it escaped east) -- this run has it open and further east. This run is worse. Am I wrong? I'm probably wrong.
  7. That lead energy is going to be there and it's going to rob the system behind it of moisture/dynamics. So, two things need to happen: 1) The lead energy needs to speed up and move out quicker (not really happening on the 12z GFS). 2) The two vorts behind it need to sync up cleaner, with the northern vort diving down (that clearly is happening).
  8. At hour 60, the NAM is at least trying to sync the main precip with the northern energy, but then it escapes and jumps to a low off South Carolina at 63 -- which is game over. I suppose there's still time for the models to follow through with that initial linkage, but it's running out fast.
  9. They seem to have similar evolutions regarding northern stream interaction -- the northern energy lags behind on all of them.
  10. The models aren't "guessing." In fact, there's a relatively solid consensus among the major globals.
  11. Remarkably consistent incremental westward shifts on last 4 GFS runs.
  12. if you wanna laugh look at what the JMA does between 120 and 144 on TT. blows up and retrogades