Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[scottynic]

any way to tell if this is light fluffy or heavy wet snow before the change over???

[MANDA]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

Same.  Very aggressive.  Especially SNJ.  Again, they know what they are doing.

[EastonSN+]

NWS likes to put the higher end potential then adjust down rather than the other way around.

Still time for colder adjustments.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, scottynic said:

any way to tell if this is light fluffy or heavy wet snow before the change over???

Will become wetter before any mixing but will start very light and fluffy due to the very cold temps 

[Wxbear25]

When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario

[Nibor]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow MT Holly

I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. 

[North and West]

Just now, Nibor said:

I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. 

and Morristown, right? Right?!?

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Mount Holly's forecast goes out 12 more hours 7 AM Monday - Upton ends at 7 PM Sunday

Main reason for the diff. They actually align.


.

well that changes my whole understanding. 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

and Morristown, right? Right?!?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I can see the Mount Pocono, Allentown and Sussex numbers verifying. Not so sure about the other ones. 

It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey?

[hudsonvalley21]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey?

Maybe they are considering a mixing issue? Only guessing.

[WestBabylonWeather]

That upton map…..

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

When/if the changeover occurs, it will compact down for sure especially if it occurs during the heavier precip instead of waiting for a more “dry slot” snizzle/sleet scenario

Storm totals are supposed to be the high depth amount for the day. Should for instance 10 inches compact down to seven or eight people are supposed to record 10. Of course it doesn't always happen that way.

[greenmtnwx]

16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Same.  Very aggressive.  Especially SNJ.  Again, they know what they are doing.

Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years.

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's hard to imagine this scenario where Sussex ends up with only an inch more than Cape May. It could happen, but I don't see it. Wonder what they're thinking is, other than twice the precip in south Jersey?

They can always revise down with the next update.

[greenmtnwx]

If they are using the NBM then that may explain it. They also should stop doing that.

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years.

[CentralNJSnowman]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Ehh I’d argue they have been far less accurate than a lot of the smart folks on this board. I can tell you in the C NJ area they have had some hideously aggressive (and wrong) snow forecasts in recent years.

Seems that way to me too.  Often seems like they're one cycle behind the models.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

35 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Mt holly not even aligning with Upton..sigh

 

Uptons map is only through 7 PM Sunday. I'm not really sure why they would put out a map to that point in time when there may be several hours of accumulating snow still to go in many areas.

[Wannabehippie]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I agree. I remember the huge snow mounds in the city after the 3/14/17 storm even though a huge amount was sleet. Sleet has a disproportionately high impact for how much of it falls-1” of sleet is the same water content as 3-4” of snow and it tends to stick around a lot longer. I’d rather it snow all things considered but anyone who wants deep long lasting snowpack shouldn’t complain about some sleet thrown in after a big thump of snow. 

I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it.

 

[Metasequoia]

If this storm underperforms regarding snow, I feel like the March 11ish 2017 storm ( Miller B also ) might be a decent analog. 12 to 20 inches of snow was initially forecasted for NYC, but the City received about a half foot of sleet because the upper low tucked in just east of the Jersey Shore and south of Long Island. Obviously this weekend's storm impacts a much larger portion of the US...

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Storm totals are supposed to be the high depth amount for the day. Should for instance 10 inches compact down to seven or eight people are supposed to record 10. Of course it doesn't always happen that way.

Right, I was originally responding to someone but I did it on Tapatalk instead of the browser by mistake so my response blew up, so I edited it down and cut out some stuff by mistake

[Wxbear25]

The NWS going hog-wild at this point is surprising. Think they get burned going so high, personally, but we’re not THAT far off from a colder, all-snow scenario I suppose

[RockawayRowdies]

16 minutes ago, North and West said:

and Morristown, right? Right?!?

Ha!
I'm in Rockaway borough.. I have no idea whether to expect 18 inches or 8. It's facinating.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it.

 

I'm not sure why. 10 to 14 inches of snow with a layer of sleet and freezing rain on top of it sticks around a hell of a lot longer than 6 inches of plain snow. 

[wthrmn654]

I'll ask them and look at they're storm briefing on slack in a mintue. 

 

Total QPF for the event should be roughly between 1.0-1.5 inches.
Watch mentions a boilerplate 6-12 inches likely with localized
accumulations over 12 inches, but the above QPF with higher snow
ratios could yield widespread potential accumulations of over a
foot

[MANDA]

20 minutes ago, Nibor said:

They can always revise down with the next update.

Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way?  I don't know, I would think they would lose the public's confidence by going down more so than going up.  I won't beat it to death.  

[OrangeCTWX]

This should appease the masses.

[wthrmn654]

Here you go Upton map. 

 

[Nibor]

Just now, MANDA said:

Wouldn't you think they would want it the other way?  I don't know, I would think they would will the public's confidence by going down more so than going up.  I won't beat it to death.  

Agreed

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

How did you get that lol