Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Ukie has the primary making it to Erie, still mostly snow here. It's probably in la la land, hopefully.

A primary that survives all the way to Erie in this pattern is structurally suspect. It requires the cold dome to retreat faster than the synoptic setup allows. The 1032 mb high to the west is not a paper tiger. It is feeding low-level cold and keeping the boundary pinned south and east. Primaries do not just waltz through that without consequences.

Ukie keeping it mostly snow in NYC while dragging the primary to Erie is internally inconsistent. If the primary truly gets that far north and west, the low-level flow into NYC backs too much from the south. You do not get to keep a clean snow profile and a strong inland primary at the same time. One of those has to give.

What usually gives is the primary.

In reality, with this kind of trough geometry and thickness field, the inland low weakens earlier. Energy transfers near the coast. The inland center becomes a bag of isobars and stops mattering. That is exactly the evolution the GFS, Euro, and most ensembles favor in similar regimes.

Ukie has a known bias here. It over-amplifies inland primaries in cold-dominant patterns, especially at this lead time. It often delays or underplays the transfer, then corrects late when the coastal baroclinic zone asserts itself. La la land is not an unfair description.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Lol we went from a southern slider to now the cmc and ukie amping this thing. (Still fine for us.)

verbatim yes it's fine but a primary that far north is not usually all snow for NYC. I think all frozen still extremely likely but would likely be some sleet with a Ukie track.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Lol we went from a southern slider to now the cmc and ukie amping this thing. (Still fine for us.)

Primary ends up in upstate NY lol 

[jdj5211]

Hard to find a real argument where NYC isn’t getting 8-12+ at this point….


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[David-LI]

If this verifies, can it be considered a historcical snowstorm for some states?

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Primary ends up in upstate NY lol 

Can't see that happening 

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET 00Z

Total QPF 

 

[Stormlover74]

Even if it ends as sleet after this falls

[Jt17]

 
UKMET 00Z
Total QPF 
 

That's a pretty weird .3-.4 missing qpf blob for NYC too lol nice weird run


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[eduggs]

Flips back to snow on the UK. Wild solution. Can't completely discard it though. Shift that a little less amped and you have a great long-duration event.

[jdj5211]

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[SACRUS]

GEFS 00Z QPF Total mean

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Flips back to snow on the UK. Wild solution. Can't completely discard it though. Shift that a little less amped and you have a great long-duration event.

 

[Nibor]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Now's around the time it does something funky 

Are you a wizard?

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1/21 00Z Total QPF

ICON: 0.9 - 1.0    (12z hold)
GGEM: 1.0 - 1.1 (12z increase slight)
GFS: 0.9 - 1.0  (12Z increase)
GFS AIFS: 0.7 - 0.8  (12z increase)
UKMET: 0.9 - 1.1 (12z Hold)  
GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8 (12z / 18z increase)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Updated

[eduggs]

30+ hours of wintry precip would be fun. Would be a high impact event. Even better if this turns out to be a little less amped than the 0z UK and we can stay all snow.

[Jt17]

30+ hours of wintry precip would be fun. Would be a high impact event. Even better if this turns out to be a little less amped than the 0z UK and we can stay all snow.

Isn't in line with anything else yet. Let's see if Euro keeps us sane


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[Nibor]

Get that closed upper low maybe down near the Missouri Arkansas border...

[Prue11]

17 minutes ago, David-LI said:

If this verifies, can it be considered a historcical snowstorm for some states?

Yeah “if” Dallas isn’t seeing 18”

[Tatamy]

Definitely precip issues with the Ukie for at least part of the area.

[MJO812]

Gefs looks great 

[MJO812]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Definitely precip issues with the Ukie for at least part of the area.

Thats at the end

[psv88]

Just now, Tatamy said:

Definitely precip issues with the Ukie for at least part of the area.

After a foot of snow

[eduggs]

The GEFS has a single member that takes a UKMET-like track through NYS. The 12 GEPS has 2. And the 18z EPS has 4 or 5 including a few that are more amped than the UKMET.

[brooklynwx99]

i couldn't care less if some pellets mix in after 8-12" of snow

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs looks great 

Thats the 18z EPS

[brooklynwx99]

tough to ask for better here. textbook aloft for significant impacts 

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i couldn't care less if some pellets mix in after 8-12" of snow

I swear to god in the 80s in Mass every single storm (and there weren’t many) ended with a crusty glaze on top. It was fun to punch through it.

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, hooralph said:

I swear to god in the 80s in Mass every single storm (and there weren’t many) ended with a crusty glaze on top. It was fun to punch through it.

I feel like growing up as a kid I’d see the same thing nearly every storm

[Franklin0529]

Euro AI is beautiful