Major Hurricane Isaias

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Why is there even a flight from Atlanta to Tallahassee? That's within drivable distance.

$$$

[Vicious Fluid]

a few Pensacola Beach cams i found are all up still as of this post 
- south view: https://visitpensacolabeach.com/web-cams/
- west view: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/west-view-webcam/
- east view: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/pensacola-beach-looking-east/
- quietwater beach: https://www.visitpensacola.com/webcams/pensacola-beach-santa-rosa-sound/
- casiono beach: https://streaming.myescambia.com:8082/
- north bridge: https://streaming.myescambia.com:8080/
- south bridge https://streaming.myescambia.com:8083/

[NavarreDon]

Worst conditions by far currently, winds high TS sustained with hf gusts, very intense as darkness comes in!




.

[NorthHillsWx]

https://x.com/pappenheimwx/status/2108697812766441670/video/1?s=46

[Coach McGuirk]

No eye. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Just a rainstorm hurricane that the southeast needed. 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Worst conditions by far currently, winds high TS sustained with hf gusts, very intense as darkness comes in!




.

Gonna be rough for the next 90 min or so.

Good luck.  Hope all goes well for you.

[NEGA_Dawg]

Watching Reed Timmer channel. They are about to be in the eyewall.

 

[MANDA]

Not minimizing this in any way but presentation on IR and radar is degrading as it comes in.   Not going to make much difference though.  At least it is not intensifying right up until landfall.  Jet interaction, trof and vorticity interaction will maximize wind and maximize it well inland as well.  There is little weather once that northern eye wall plows ashore, which it is doing right now.   Not much on the other side of degrading eye.   Looks like a two hour window of the worst of it for a given location along the coast.  Official landfall should take place around 10pm +/- 30 minutes.

[nycwinter]

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

[vortex95]

For the EWW issued in FL now. 

EWW is defined to expect winds *sustained* 115 mph (not gusts).

Look at the plot attached.  What are the chances of sustained winds this strong *anywhere* but the immediate coast, say within 5 mi?  Due to friction, sustained winds drop off very, very quickly once inland.  And for a hurricane that is right at the threshold of 115 mph for winds over *water*, you are going to be hard pressed to even see such sustained winds anywhere on land.   

It goes to show how warnings often are overdone and do not account for obvious factors, like how strong a hurricane is, how large or fasting-moving it is. or how far inland locations are.

Objectively, getting winds 115 mph sustained more than a few miles inland at near ground level is practically unheard of more than a few miles inland.  Exceptions would be Andrew, Michael and Camille, but Isaias is no where near any of them.  You can't treat hurricane landfalls as one-size-fits-all.  We have the skill, knowledge, and tech to fine-tune things better and narrow down warning areas these days.

And it is not like people this area of the FL PH are not already warned the wazoo a hurricane is making landfall.  That very fact has already resulted in major action and lock downs, so people are more than prepared.  The word "hurricane" in itself prompts immense action.
 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

It’s doing as modeled. Degrading quickly now. 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

It’s collapsing rapidly

[Coach McGuirk]

The uglies looking Cat 3 Landfall ever. 

[OHweather]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

The pressure did just rise 13mb between the last two recon passes. Not enough time for it to make a huge difference but it’s starting to weaken pretty quickly now. 

[qg_omega]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

The uglies looking Cat 3 Landfall ever. 

It’s a CAT 2 now

[GaWx]

Josh just posted from Okaloosa Island, FL:

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1515937730580171&id=iCyclone

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s doing as modeled. Degrading quickly now. 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

For the EWW issued in FL now. 

EWW is defined to expect winds *sustained* 115 mph (not gusts).

Look at the plot attached.  What are the chances of sustained winds this strong *anywhere* but the immediate coast, say within 5 mi?  Due to friction, sustained winds drop off very, very quickly once inland.  And for a hurricane that is right at the threshold of 115 mph for winds over *water*, you are going to be hard pressed to even see such sustained winds anywhere on land.   

It goes to show how warnings often are overdone and do not account for obvious factors, like how strong a hurricane is, how large or fasting-moving it is. or how far inland locations are.

Objectively, getting winds 115 mph sustained more than a few miles inland at near ground level is practically unheard of more than a few miles inland.  Exceptions would be Andrew, Michael and Camille, but Isaias is no where near any of them.  You can't treat hurricane landfalls as one-size-fits-all.  We have the skill, knowledge, and tech to fine-tune things better and narrow down warning areas these days.

And it is not like people this area of the FL PH are not already warned the wazoo a hurricane is making landfall.  That very fact has already resulted in major action and lock downs, so people are more than prepared.  The word "hurricane" in itself prompts immense action.
 

Maybe the interesting thing here is that the EWW text has no mention of wind speeds at all.  It might simply be that the NWS offices are ignoring the 115mph sustained guidance and going with an EWW for all major hurricane eyewalls.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

Post less, sleep more

[Interstate]

14 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it did not fall apart as some on this forum were suggesting as it makes landfall..

How do you figure... it still did not make landfall yet and the eye is pretty much gone on the radar.  It almost looks like it has begun extratropical transition.

[Torch Tiger]

Some gusty winds and heavy rain as the remmant core pushes ashore

[SnowGoose69]

Pensacola 92mph

 

METAR KPNS 092353Z 04038G80KT 2 1/2SM VCTS RA BR BKN065 OVC085 19/18 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 05080/2346 LTG DSNT SE-W SLP903 P0029 60156 T01940178 10217 20194 58141

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The uglies looking Cat 3 Landfall ever. 

Yeah wow looks more like a strong TS

[GaWx]

Per Dr. Knabb: The strongest winds are currently on the NW-W side of the center due to how the strong southerly wind shear is interacting. Interesting.

[NEGA_Dawg]

Storm chasers are showing that this cane is falling apart.

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah wow looks more like a strong TS

Lol obviously new to Gulf halfcanes

[MANDA]

[CoastalWx]

PNS might have better mixing, but almost looks like a second wind max there on both radars.

[Dunkman]

I mean I think it’s probably a cat 1 at this point but this is what the majority of October land falling storms look like in the US. The system that pulls them north rips them apart.