NavarreDon

Duh!!! Thank you. .

I’m sure this is going to sound stupid but...why no update since 10? .

Nice write up by MOB on the tornado threat. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1111 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below. && .UPDATE...A complicated synoptic pattern exists over the local area. First off, a warm front was draped from off the Louisiana coast up across the MS Sound, east northeast to the I-10 corridor over the northwest FL Panhandle. Tornado watch is in effect thru 4 pm this afternoon over the western half of the local area. A brief discussion on notable late AM mesoscale analysis data shows bulk shear magnitudes 35 to 50 kts from the MS sound northward over the watch area. Co-located with this area, 0-1km storm relative helicity values range from 200-300 m2/s2 mostly north of the warm front, while the highest instability resides south of the warm front where a strong gradient of mixed layer capes of 1000-2000 J/KG is positioned from the coast, southward out over the marine area. Along the warm front and the strongly backed low level flow, there is an increased potential for any updrafts lifting up off the Gulf and across the coast to stretch and tighten as cells approach and move across the boundary where the low level helicity begins to increase. Tornadoes can spin up quickly in this environment. Tropical depression 17 has formed over the southwest Gulf and the expectation is that as this feature gains latitude, it will merge with a cold front approaching slowly from the west and transition into a post-tropical cyclone. No coastal tropical hazards at this time due to the expected transition, but may result in the necessity of the issuance of a gale warning over portions of the marine area and perhaps a high surf warning. That decision will be made this afternoon. Heavy rain threat continues. No changes made to flash flood watches. High risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents continues. /10 .

Tornado warning for Harrison county MS. .

Pretty tight cluster! .

Advisories forthcoming Tropical Weather Discussion ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico, and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post- tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. .

97L gets it cherry on the 8:00pm. .

Interesting solution by the 18Z GFS hours 30-42! .

Up to 60% on the 2pm NHC outlook. .

Watching this one closely from Navarre!

I am almost ready to depart on a trip to Jensen Beach FL (I-10 to I-75 to Florida Turnpike to I-95). Should be an interesting run. A little concerned about the possible tornadic threat thru the N peninsula. Roaring surf heard hear in Navarre 1.5 miles from the Gulf!

Really strange weather here in FWB. Rain, wind, & temps in the low 60’s! .

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Here is some of MOB’s thoughts. .SHORT TERM /Tomorrow Night through Saturday/...The upper- and lower- level circulation centers become vertically stacked by tomorrow evening and then the upper trough actually opens up as it outruns the surface low Friday night. The surface low nears landfall somewhere in the western FL Panhandle between Destin and Apalachicola, FL (in this general area) Saturday morning. Latest guidance has trended a few hours later. Some members are still a bit west and some are a bit east, but this is the latest thinking. As mentioned above rain ends from the west on Saturday as the cyclonic wrap-around rainshield translates eastward with the mid- and upper portion of the system. /23 JMM .

Thinking NHC will have to pull the trigger by the 10:00 CDT update due to the timeline....thoughts? .