NavarreDon

Bertha might look the best I’ve seen her yet! Maybe a center reformation nearer the convection?

We almost certainly had sustained winds pushing 40 with higher gusts between 2 & 3 this afternoon in FWB. Very little rain as expected on the N side due to the shear. I will say I was taken back by the wind speed. Things are calming rapidly now as expected. NHC did well extending the TS warning eastward earlier today. .

OBS from Fort Walton Beach, sustained winds of 25 mph with some higher gusts. Spotty bands of light precip. Typical set up as to when the bands move thru it drags the wind down to the surface with it. .

Really great obs, quite frankly in a high storm year we all probably wouldn’t pay much attention to this storm. Bertha isn’t the prettiest, but she may be one of the few options to take home this year. .

NHC agrees, we have TS Bertha. .

Agree with this, we will see what NHC says though. .

Just had the first precip from a band storm here in Fort Walton Beach. It lasted literally a minute but, the rain rate was extreme. .

We have orange, ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However, the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. .

That’s frickin awesome man, some more to come, congrats!!! .

How much do you have Jason? .

Great pics & OBS folks! Keep them coming. Sounds like a classic overachiever. .

Good luck folks, I will be rooting for all of you to cash! .

Sometimes the model can be to quick to break down the ridge. I’m curious to see what the euro shows & more importantly what sort of tale the ensembles tell. .

I’m not sure that run of the GFS is accurate with the track of the low. It’s moving the HP kinda strangely. I think based on history and synoptics the low track may be a bit further south before making the turn. My guess (only a guess) is that for the Mnts. there is a bit more snow & a bit less sleet with the system. Of course the warm nose will have its say in this. .

Morning folks, just wanted to let you know I’m watching from afar. Everything that a typical big Southern snow entails is in play here. Good, bad, and ugly as seen in the models. Lots of good advice on living and dying with every model run in this current part of the thread. The chase is so much of the fun, don’t let it consume you. I’ll give some thoughts a bit later as things come into better focus. Enjoy the ride as this could be a really fun one! .