NavarreDon

Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish? .

4:00 pm advisory down to 70 mph for peak wind. The do say a cane is still very possible. . Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16 airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become a remnant low by 96 h.

Tropical downpours firing up along the western FL Panhandle. .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ .

For those of you that follow Levi on Twitter. He has a series of tweets this am that explain what’s going on with the system. Very informative! .

HH are off.... .

Levi's Tuesday vid:

Rain on the doorstep at the house. .

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits Surface obs this morning indicate a surface trough extension along the Florida panhandle. This is a feature the GFS picked up on but the ECMWF missed. Watching today for whether this feature or something closer to Tampa becomes dominant - a very important detail for 92L's future

Up to 50% 48hrs on the NHC 7:00 am CDT update. I'm not the best at reading models so can someone tell me what happened on the 6Z GFS?

Levi’s got a good vid up! .

8:00 am EDT NHC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Saw this from the 12Z euro.... .

NHC ups 5 day to 40% https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5