NavarreDon

Yikes!

This would be a bad setup for the Mnts in WNC especially along the escarpment! .

GSP long term doesn't talk about dams specifically but they are already beginning to bring to light some possible impacts after landfall in their long term. Here is part of it. Both global models and dynamic hurricane- specific models seem to be converging on a track that brings Florence into the Carolinas...though of course finer details, which will be extremely important to local impacts, are plagued with uncertainty this far out. Any impacts in our forecast area are still roughly 5 days away, which leaves a very large window for forecast refinement. Rapid intensification is occurring even at the present time, and Florence`s wind field will likely expand significantly as it drifts westward. This could result in tropical-storm force winds being felt in parts of our eastern forecast area by late next Thursday/early Friday...though of course any wind threat will be track-dependent and will continue to be assessed. The biggest potential change to our local forecast could result from shifts in guidance once Florence moves inland toward the second half of the medium range period. We do have to contend with the usual uncertainty that surrounds tropical systems and extended forecasts in general, but some similarities in steering flow in the long range models once Florence moves inland are coming to light. Florence (or whatever remains by next weekend) actually becomes cut off from the mean flow, and meanders slowly westward towards the spine of the Appalachians late in the weekend and even into early next week. Exactly where this will occur and what impacts may result are yet to be determined, but if this solution were to verify, the heavy rain threat for our area may be more widespread than what it appeared to be previously. I will also note that though much of the focus of this storm is on the wind threat, most deaths in tropical systems result from water...specifically flooding, which could become a very significant threat for inland areas. It is too far out to estimate exact rainfall totals and locations, but it should be noted that a significant inland flooding threat will likely materialize across parts of the southeast as Florence stalls out late next week. As far as expected impacts...don`t want to get too specific as far as exact location at the moment considering the strong track- dependence, but some realistic hazards to be prepared for include the potential for flooding rainfall, mudslides in mountainous areas, and strong winds capable of doing tree/power line damage. Stay aware of changes in the forecast, and begin taking preparedness actions now if you have not already done so. Very few people regret being over-prepared.

Up to 7” here at the house in Navarre. This matches up well to storm accumulation on radarscope. Rain is starting to wain out in the Gulf. .

Over 10” of rain in Pensacola area so far. Sadly one fatality as a child was killed when a tree fell on a mobile home in Escambia county (W Pensacola area). The river of moisture is just to the west of us here in Navarre, we are @ 5” currently. .

Multiple tornado warnings now in Santa Rosa county in FL. .

Here we go tornado warning for this cell that just went thru here. It was hairy for a minute!!! .

Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Warning ALC003-FLC033-113-050715- /O.NEW.KMOB.FF.W.0019.180905T0124Z-180905T0715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Mobile AL 824 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018 The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southern Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama... Central Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida... Southern Escambia County in northwestern Florida... * Until 215 AM CDT. * At 822 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Two to four inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. Additional rainfall amounts of three to six inches are possible in the warned area over the next six hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. .

Wind has backed off some here in Navarre but, the Gulf is open for business with the precip. I'm a little surprised at the amount of rainfall so far.

Nice call, noticeable increase in rain & wind. Probably gusts up to 50+ and a tornado watch is now in affect. .

This is for perspective of my location. .

Getting our worst weather currently with sustained wind of 30mph with gusts of 45mph here at the house. Went to the beach about an hour ago and took some vid & pics. .

I’m in Fort Walton Beach at work, getting ready to head home to Navarre in about an hour. It’s been raining for about 3hrs with a 15-20 mph wind, gusts to around 30 so far. .