NavarreDon

Kinda surprised with the data they didn’t go 40. Dr Knabb said it’s a coin flip & the forecasters decision. Not a big discrepancy though.

Recon enroute now. Curious to see what they find.

Thoughts on 91L? Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

Was shocked to register 1001.2 imby this morning at 6:30 CDT, accompanied with wind gusts to 50mph+. It blew a portion of fence & gate down on the side of my house! .

Mike Seidel is reporting from Banner Elk on TWC. Just showed a web cam from Highlands and it’s snowing pretty good. .

Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC! .

Hello mountain/foothill peeps! Just wanted to announce I’m lurking and here for some vicarious living. Definitely have an eyebrow raised for this event. Lot’s of ifs left to iron out and definitely some bust potential but, the event has me watching. Good luck to all!!! .

Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph. .

Definitely the healthiest I’ve seen her. Will be curious to see what recon finds. .

000 WTNT43 KNHC 071455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with a high density of lightning developed near the center of the cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt. A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and southern Mexico through Tuesday. Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that the center will have dissipated by those times. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands and moves onshore. 2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg .

Recon seems to confirm. .

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022 Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the tropical wave east of the Windward Islands For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: East of the Windward Islands: Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg .

Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting. Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael. .

Back to lemon from orange. .

Looks like we have a unassigned flight enroute? .