NavarreDon

Whoever came up with this should never be tasked with naming storms again! .

Need some help here as I’m not the best model reader. I’m assuming this is what’s causing the euro to shift East? If that is the case what’s some thoughts on the strength of that front for this time of year? .

65mph/992 as of the 10pm advisory. Down to 8mph forward speed. .

A little stronger & first watches posted. BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 ...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.9N 45.9W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Barbados. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). .

Looks like they just left. .

Just a matter of time: Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

Levi’s vid,

It may be an outlier but after Michael I will never discount it. If my memory serves me correct. It was showing (at that point) some 930’s before we had any idea what a monster was coming. It does have its quirks but, it has its place also. .

Didn’t follow it all day but I’m thinking that’s likely what happened. .

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Five, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. 1. A small low pressure system is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida. While the low currently has limited thunderstorm activity, some development is still possible before it moves inland early Monday. This system is expected to evolve into a larger low pressure system and move northeastward, possibly emerging offshore of the Carolinas later this week where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 2. A strong tropical wave, centered about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible on Monday before environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday. The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and could produce locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty winds on some of those islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Blake The N Gulf low is really distinctive on EVX!

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 510 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020 ...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Grand Isle. Maximum sustained winds were estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of 992 mb (29.29 inches). A Weatherflow site on Ship Island, Mississippi, has recently observed a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h). A Weatherflow site near Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h). SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 89.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto .

It was a solid 8-10’ with some 15’ rouges mixed in! I’ve got some video I’ll post later. .

Made a trip out to the beach & pier. We currently have our strongest sustained winds (25-30) now. I think a lot of us forget the true actual power of any tropical system. Being out on the pier was a reminder of this!

As the first outflow clouds traverse the area tonight, it has “the feel” outside. Extreme dew points & humidity, for this time of year, have arrived on the W FL Panhandle. .

Warnings up with the 4:00pm advisory. .