Major Hurricane Isaias

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Whoa, need confirmation from the drop, but 952.8 MB extrap , vs the pass before at 958.0 (drop was 963)

I see 951.6mb extrap. A very substantial fall. 

[WxWatcher007]

I'll just add note the deep convection with lightning that continues to fire around the center. As long as that happens, this isn't weakening any. 

[NorthHillsWx]

One thing shear is doing is going to work on eyewall symmetry. Half-a-cane look starting. Hopefully that starts the weakening process. This current convective burst and little change with the CDO seriously lessen the chances of significant weakening but you can tell this storm is simply being held in check atm

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I see 951.6mb extrap. A very substantial fall. 

Wow, confirmation from the second plane too, 951.5 at least. So probably ~956mb

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'll just add note the deep convection with lightning that continues to fire around the center. As long as that happens, this isn't weakening any. 

but in those last couple of frames you do not see the convection back build in the south and south east of the storm.  I hope that is the start of the weaking process.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

100% true this.  I see no sign of dry air or shear having any effect on Isaias yet.  At worst it is steady state.  I see nothing to support weakening or degradation of the eye or the storm as a whole as of now.  Likely has peaked but the expected weakening prior to landfall has not started yet.  I was not expecting major from this so intensity has exceeded my expectations.  Was thinking high end cat 2 but Isaias has without a doubt reached solid Cat 3 status.

Most here  know way more than me so I ask questions but there is No Doubt that 80% of the discussions yesterday had this  ripped apart by shear. In fact and once again it’s strengthened and will maintain intensity at landfall which used to be a definite rarity 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

but in those last couple of frames you do not see the convection back build in the south and south east of the storm.  I hope that is the start of the weaking process.

I think there's going to be two factors at play leading to steady state through landfall: baroclonic forcing leading to pressure drop (seeing now), and shear weakening one half of the storm allowing dry air in and an expansion of the wind field

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

but in those last couple of frames you do not see the convection back build in the south and south east of the storm.  I hope that is the start of the weaking process.

We'll see. Recon is showing maybe some hints of shear starting to impact the core. We're very fortunate the shear is here. 

[NavarreDon]

Conditions are steadily deteriorating in Wright FL. Conservative sustained winds are 25 with gusts to 35-40


.

[OrangeCTWX]

Most of the latest hurricane models had this around 950mb at its current spot. How much it weakens from here on out is the question. The HWRF actually keeps it sub 960mb at landfall. We shall see. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The eyewall is roughly 4 hours away. We’re on final approach 

[Nomz]

Very strong supercell churning approx 35 miles SE of Carrabelle

[Seminole]

Just now, Nomz said:

Very strong supercell churning approx 35 miles SE of Carrabelle

I can hear the thunder from that super cell here on SGI. 

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One thing shear is doing is going to work on eyewall symmetry. Half-a-cane look starting. Hopefully that starts the weakening process. This current convective burst and little change with the CDO seriously lessen the chances of significant weakening but you can tell this storm is simply being held in check atm

Yep, southern eyewall clearly being eaten away. But the north side is still clearly in beast mode and trying as best it can to wrap around. 

[NorthHillsWx]

What a beast. Who saw this coming a week ago 

[Ginx snewx]

Crankin

[BooneWX]

Numerous mesovorticies dancing around that eyewall

[Chinook]

tornado over the water, south of Crawfordsville FL

 

[Seminole]

Tornado Warning
FLC037-045-091945-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0050.261009T1912Z-261009T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Gulf County in the Panhandle of Florida...
  Southwestern Franklin County in Big Bend Florida...

* Until 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/.

* At 311 PM EDT/211 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm capable of
  producing a tornado was located over St George Island, moving
  northwest at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  St George Island and Eastpoint around 315 PM EDT.
  Apalachicola around 320 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Franklin, Bay City, Apalachicola Airport, Creels, Tilton, Beverly,
and Hays Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2978 8519 2991 8492 2962 8477 2958 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 141DEG 33KT 2964 8487

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

55-SCHOLL

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

tornado over the water, south of Crawfordsville FL

 

good god thats a nasty looking couplet

[Chinook]

tornado warning Apalachicola FL, with larger tornadic supercell out over the open water, as I mentioned

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

tornado warning Apalachicola FL, with larger tornadic supercell out over the open water, as I mentioned

the gate to gate shear on that one on the right is about 150

[NavarreDon]

The eyewall is roughly 4 hours away. We’re on final approach 

Confirmation…




.

[Chinook]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Crankin

yes, current radars show 110 kt (126.5mph) wind in the clouds at the eyewall, above ground. That's some crazy stuff.

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a beast. Who saw this coming a week ago 

And during a super niño, no less. Isaías vs Niño and I is kicking butt and basically said "Shear? What shear?" lol And as others have pointed out, having not having any other storms in the Gulf probably helped this outcome...wow.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Uh oh -- so much for leveling off ....

Yet the shear drum  bangers  are redoubling and still crying “shear” 

[Chinook]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And during a super niño, no less. Isaías vs Niño and I is kicking butt and basically said "Shear? What shear?" lol And as others have pointed out, having not having any other storms in the Gulf probably helped this outcome...wow.

I think the GFS had a low pressure in a Gulf about a week ago, but there was nothing on the NHC outlook, and then.. nothing, and then.. this.