Seminole

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Everything posted by Seminole

  1. Pensacola - Navarre area but not as strong a system as the Hurricane Models are advertising
  2. 12Z HMON has COC of Sally in Mobile Bay 6Z Wed.
  3. 12Z HWRF was initialized close to NHC position. Showing Pascagoula direct hit which is a bad scenario for Mobile Bay
  4. Louisiana in the cross hairs for both Marco and Laura on that run.
  5. SAL and dry air have the upper hand ATM.
  6. HMON is an insurance company nightmare scenario. Enter via Miami and exit via Tampa.
  7. I plan on giving my generator a trial run this weekend and verifying Hurricane supply items. We are in peak season and the Panhandle knows the drill by now. 2016 - 2018 still fresh on all our minds.
  8. The lack of naming the storm is sure to lead to complacency for those who should be preparing for a wind event 24 hours from now.
  9. Almost Hurricane intensity right over Mexico Beach.
  10. 12Z Euro showing a 994 MB TS near Fort Walton 8:00 AM EST. Saturday. GFS and Euro in good agreement with intensity and timing but 120 mile spread.
  11. 12Z GFS has 60 mph TS landfall near Port St. Joe.
  12. 12Z GFS a little more bullish with the BOC system. Higher end TS off PC coast Saturday.
  13. 12Z GFS has a slightly stronger storm in the Eastern GOM than the 6Z run. Still nothing to write home about. Looks like Mexico Beach - Cape San Blas landfall
  14. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24 Sure seems that way.
  15. 12z Euro picking up on what the GFS has been hinting at albeit much weaker and slower.
  16. That run was brutal. Miami high end CAT 3 Tampa Low end CAT 2 and Jacksonville strong tropical storm.
  17. The track beyond 72 hours is about the largest variance I have ever seen in a cone. There must be close to a 600 mile variance. A lot of uncertainty beyond 72 hours with path.
  18. Euro hugging the coastline from Port St. Lucie to Daytona
  19. 12Z HWRF has landfall near Melbourne/Palm Bay as high end CAT 4
  20. If this pans out it is going to be an insurance nightmare.
  21. This run has Dorian traversing the Florida peninsula in 15 hours. I agree with that much time over land it seems unlikely that re-intensification would happen so soon.
  22. HWRF shows re-intensification after Dorian emerges in the GOM. CAT 3 117 mph