Seminole

Either possible solution faces the inevitable 30 to 40 knot shear prior to landfall.

Flood watches have been issued for most North Florida counties and some south Georgia and Alabama counties. Flood Watch National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426-GAZ122>131- 142>148-155>161-060000- /O.EXT.KTAE.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-261006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-Holmes-Washington- Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf-Inland Franklin-Gadsden- Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Inland Wakulla-South Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-Randolph-Calhoun- Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Worth-Turner-Tift-Ben Hill-Irwin-Early- Miller-Baker-Mitchell-Colquitt-Cook-Berrien-Seminole-Decatur-Grady- Thomas-Brooks-Lowndes-Lanier- Including the cities of Bethel, Babcock, Hoggard Mill, Dalkeith, West Bainbridge, Capitola, Saint Joe Beach, Marianna, Vicksburg, Mitchell Co A/P, Panama City, Metcalf, Monticello, Seminole State Park, Simsville, Alpine Heights, Center Ridge, Freeport, Geneva, Donalsonville, East Albany, Lockett Crossing, Yeomans, Davis Park, De Funiak Spring Airport, Richter Crossroads, Moultrie Municipal A/P, Dothan, Cairo, Southport, Coles, Peterson Hill, Moultrie, Spence Airport, Howard Creek, High Bluff, Sumatra, Beverly, Lovett, Turquoise Beach, Cottle, Cordrays Mill, Milford, Bonifay, Chaires, Madison, Chipley, Chula, Bannockburn, Barker Store, Pelham, Hartford, Santa Clara, Tallahassee, Ganer, Riverturn, Doverel, Pine Valley, Ausmac, Decatur Co A/P, Williamsburg, Newton, Commissary Hill, Holmes County Airport, Graceville, Grady Co A/P, Iveys Mill, Bellview, Shivers Mill, Berrien Co A/P, Hawkinstown, Tifton, Elpino, Centerville, Cluster Springs, Nashville, Littman, Wetumpka, Killearn Estates, Pinetta, Panacea, Albany, Fadette, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Lewis, Pleasant Ridge, Camilla, Santa Rosa Beach, Lynn Haven, Apalachicola, Nixon, Lynn, Killearn Lakes, Browntown, Festus, Cottonwood, Glendale, Steinham Store, Dillon, Apalachicola Airport, Bainbridge, Blakely, Bowens Mill, Courthouse, Chaires Crossroads, Grooverville, Kern, Oak Grove, Thomasville, Twin Pole, Dawson Municipal A/P, Barneyville, Springvale, Herod, Quincy Airport, Early Co A/P, Cooktown, Brooks Co A/P, Cobb Crossroads, Crystal Lake, Greggs, Odena, Little Hope, Alma, Sandestin, Benevolence, Blue Springs, Queensland, Leonia, Wakulla Springs, Hobby, Sweetwater, Waterloo, Palmyra, Alfords, Red Store Crossroads, Lakeland, Cherry Lake, Ashburn, Sunsweet, Honeyville, Magnolia Beach, Colquitt, Walker, Marysville, Buckhorn, Westwood, Abba, Empress, Sylvester Airport, Worth, Valdosta Regional Airport, Casa Blanco, Adel, Fort Gadsden, Graves, Hacoda, Scotts Ferry, Branchville, Dickey, Morgan, Valdosta, Hanover, Wewahitchka, Capps, Moncrief, Five Points, Port Leon, Pine Park, Vilas, Elmodel Wma, Ashford, Ocilla, Port St. Joe, Pasco, Hanson, Irwinville, Fitzgerald, Douglasville, Point Washington, Tilton, Boykin, Cuba, Ashton, Beachton, Bennett, Drifton, Hopewell, Arlington, Jarrott, Beacon Hill, Econfina, Enterprise, Bay City, Turner City, Dixie, Saint Marks, Morgan Place, Harding, Mayhaw, Dawson, Nankin, De Funiak Springs, Pretoria, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Sneads, Bradfordville, Bunker, Chipley Municipal Airport, Hilliardville, Hays Place, Sylvester, Capel, Logan Field Municipal A/P, Poplar Head, Portland, New Hope, Dills, Cook Co A/P, Laconte, Frink, Buck Siding, Forrester, Medart, Overstreet, Quincy, Wilma, Callaway, Cotton, Donaldsonville A/P, Abe Springs, Quitman, Springvale Station, Clarksville, Teeterville, Maclay State Gardens, Sopchoppy, Creels, Leesburg, Hardin Heights, Weber, Argyle, Orange Hill, Central City, Chattahoochee, Clarks Mill, Cuthbert, Gammage, Isabella, Fairchild, White City, Geneva Municipal A/P, Youngstown, Durham, Gordy, Edison, Eucheeanna, Massee, Red Rock, Malone, and Blountstown 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 /134 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026/ ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following areas, Geneva and Houston, Florida, including the following areas, Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Madison, North Walton, Northern Liberty, South Walton, Southern Liberty and Washington, and Georgia, including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth. * WHEN...Through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for most of the area with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible through Monday, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Another area of concern is across south-central Georgia where locally heavy rainfall since Friday afternoon has primed the region more so than the rest of our area, so it wont take as much rain to cause flash flooding. Across the flood watch area, very high rain rates due to the tropical air mass may lead to flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ PK

Those are some really old analogs which in my mind speaks volumes how rare this current El Nino event is

Well we are officially past peak season with no United States landfalls this season. 2015 is the last time the USA did not have a land falling hurricane. It also looks like the streak of 7 years with 10 major hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast will come to an end this year. It is still possible for a US landfall but majors in November that make landfall as a major have never happened. Hurricane Kate in 1985 is the strongest hurricane to hit the US in November as a CAT 2 cane.

2015 was the last year of the Florida 10 year record of no hurricane landfalls. 2016 started a remarkable 8 year stretch of 16 Hurricane landfalls in the gulf coast. Feast or famine as the saying goes.

GFS has gone back and forth with a CAG or western Caribbean genesis for several days now. The Euro not so much. This far out

I will tell you what a wasted season is. When a 10 year old brat gets handed a foul ball that was mine.

Running out of time. Here in north Florida it has been very dry and less humid compared to September last year. Feels more like October than September. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks it is probably time to turn the page on this season.

SAL is absolutely an existing problem for large sections of the east coast and parts of the Gulf. There is currently a milky white haze here in north Florida. Hard to get anything going in this dry and dusty environment. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

Looks like the Euro is now on board with a system tracking in the Gulf in the same timeframe. The difference with the Euro AI is the Euro has the system forming in the eastern Bahamas and tracking through the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Gap instead of a CAG genesis.

Maybe the happy middle is naming non tropical storms and use a naming convention that is different than what is used for tropical storms. This would raise public awareness to a certain degree. Off the top of my head, maybe use the NATO Phonetic alphabet for non tropical storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

Thanks for sharing. I can attest to how this approach does mitigate flood damage to homes. My home on St. George Island is on 12' pilings. I had two feet of water under my home from Helene last year. It was not from storm surge but from excessive rainfall that had nowhere to go because the water table was full. That article is misleading in that it does not mention the 15' requirement. The article mentions a 2' requirement if building on a 100 or 500 year flood plain but that may be not be enough based on what Harvey did.

Daily mail loves click bait. That is a whopper tale they are spinning for those clicks.

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

All of your points lead me to think that perhaps we are entering another AMO Inactive period. If volcanic activity is in fact an influencing factor with AMO Inactive periods should we look at the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption as a possible catalyst that started another AMO Inactive period? "The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai is a submarine volcano in Tonga that had a massive, explosive eruption on January 15, 2022, which produced a significant tsunami and a record-breaking volcanic plume that reached the mesosphere. This eruption, one of the largest in the past 300 years, generated shockwaves that propagated through the atmosphere and tsunamis across ocean basins, including the Americas and Japan."

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

A homebrewed BOC or Caribbean system that affects the Gulf region would have different outcomes based on where in the Gulf it goes. The northern Gulf SST's are a few degrees cooler than the southern gulf. Big SST difference between NE Gulf and SW Gulf. Any home brewed system that goes into the northern Gulf would have some environmental challenges to clear to make MH status. Southern gulf (S Texas or SW Florida) would need to keep their guard up because conditions are ripe in these areas.

https://www.outerbanks.org/plan-your-trip/webcams/ OBX webcams. Surfs up!

This is an interesting take regarding AMO activity. The conclusion makes sense when you connect volcanic events during the inactive period timeframes. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810 Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

It makes plausible sense.

Just some food for thought over the long haul. We have been in an AMO Active period since 1995. When you look at the history of AMO Active and Inactive periods those are historically 25 to 30 years long. Historically we are due to return to a AMO Inactive period and perhaps this is a transition year back to an AMO Inactive period.

SAL is currently a problem in the MDR and Caribbean right now. This looks more like July than September. https://www.wyff4.com/article/saharan-dust-suppresses-tropical-development-during-peak-season/66012941