Seminole

Well we are officially past peak season with no United States landfalls this season. 2015 is the last time the USA did not have a land falling hurricane. It also looks like the streak of 7 years with 10 major hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast will come to an end this year. It is still possible for a US landfall but majors in November that make landfall as a major have never happened. Hurricane Kate in 1985 is the strongest hurricane to hit the US in November as a CAT 2 cane.

2015 was the last year of the Florida 10 year record of no hurricane landfalls. 2016 started a remarkable 8 year stretch of 16 Hurricane landfalls in the gulf coast. Feast or famine as the saying goes.

GFS has gone back and forth with a CAG or western Caribbean genesis for several days now. The Euro not so much. This far out

I will tell you what a wasted season is. When a 10 year old brat gets handed a foul ball that was mine.

Running out of time. Here in north Florida it has been very dry and less humid compared to September last year. Feels more like October than September. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks it is probably time to turn the page on this season.

SAL is absolutely an existing problem for large sections of the east coast and parts of the Gulf. There is currently a milky white haze here in north Florida. Hard to get anything going in this dry and dusty environment. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

Looks like the Euro is now on board with a system tracking in the Gulf in the same timeframe. The difference with the Euro AI is the Euro has the system forming in the eastern Bahamas and tracking through the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Gap instead of a CAG genesis.

Maybe the happy middle is naming non tropical storms and use a naming convention that is different than what is used for tropical storms. This would raise public awareness to a certain degree. Off the top of my head, maybe use the NATO Phonetic alphabet for non tropical storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

Thanks for sharing. I can attest to how this approach does mitigate flood damage to homes. My home on St. George Island is on 12' pilings. I had two feet of water under my home from Helene last year. It was not from storm surge but from excessive rainfall that had nowhere to go because the water table was full. That article is misleading in that it does not mention the 15' requirement. The article mentions a 2' requirement if building on a 100 or 500 year flood plain but that may be not be enough based on what Harvey did.

Daily mail loves click bait. That is a whopper tale they are spinning for those clicks.

Interesting article about housing construction since Hurricane Harvey. Apparently that biblical flooding event changed nothing. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2025/houston-metro-floodplain-construction/?noapp=true&utm_content=img&sid=6899cebb64b7fc37ca04ba24&ss=P&st_rid=null&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Business&utm_campaign=hcrn | editorial features

All of your points lead me to think that perhaps we are entering another AMO Inactive period. If volcanic activity is in fact an influencing factor with AMO Inactive periods should we look at the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption as a possible catalyst that started another AMO Inactive period? "The Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai is a submarine volcano in Tonga that had a massive, explosive eruption on January 15, 2022, which produced a significant tsunami and a record-breaking volcanic plume that reached the mesosphere. This eruption, one of the largest in the past 300 years, generated shockwaves that propagated through the atmosphere and tsunamis across ocean basins, including the Americas and Japan."

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

A homebrewed BOC or Caribbean system that affects the Gulf region would have different outcomes based on where in the Gulf it goes. The northern Gulf SST's are a few degrees cooler than the southern gulf. Big SST difference between NE Gulf and SW Gulf. Any home brewed system that goes into the northern Gulf would have some environmental challenges to clear to make MH status. Southern gulf (S Texas or SW Florida) would need to keep their guard up because conditions are ripe in these areas.

https://www.outerbanks.org/plan-your-trip/webcams/ OBX webcams. Surfs up!

This is an interesting take regarding AMO activity. The conclusion makes sense when you connect volcanic events during the inactive period timeframes. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abc5810 Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing

It makes plausible sense.

Just some food for thought over the long haul. We have been in an AMO Active period since 1995. When you look at the history of AMO Active and Inactive periods those are historically 25 to 30 years long. Historically we are due to return to a AMO Inactive period and perhaps this is a transition year back to an AMO Inactive period.

SAL is currently a problem in the MDR and Caribbean right now. This looks more like July than September. https://www.wyff4.com/article/saharan-dust-suppresses-tropical-development-during-peak-season/66012941

Frozen rain on St. George Island.

40 I'm east of you on St. George Island. 40 and heavy rain now.

Well this is a new one. Hurricane Hunters flying into the winter storm. https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/2025/01/21/wild-weather-heavy-snow-sweeps-across-gulf-coast-months-after-damaging-hurricanes/